2017 was terribly frustrating. 2017 is over. Long live 2018.
Welcome to the first in a planned series of articles profiling organizations that might match up well as trade partners for the Cardinals in the 2017-18 offseason. The idea with these pieces is not to propose or analyze specific trade ideas (though folks can and should do that in the comments, and I’ll throw out a framework trade idea or two at the end). It is more to give you, the reader – who is presumably a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals – more knowledge of clubs you may not pay close attention to otherwise, so you can be a more informed Hot Stove prognosticator.
First up, the most obvious of all: the Miami Marlins.
Things to know from 2017
First: Miami wasn’t awful, but also wasn’t very good. Despite a brief push into the Wild Card conversation, the Marlins faded down the stretch and finished 10 games out of the second Wild Card, at 77-85. Their current roster projects for 30-31 wins above replacement per FanGraphs depth charts, which translates to a 77-78 win projection. The upshot is that without several significant acquisitions and/or breakouts, the Marlins are stuck in a 75-80 win limbo.
Second: the team was sold to an investor group “headed” by Derek Jeter. I say “headed” because Jeter is merely the face of the group; he put up relatively little of his own money. Still, he is reportedly is going to serve as head of baseball operations. So the Marlins now have new ownership and some sort of new direction, with an amateur making the baseball decisions. Should be interesting.
Needs
Money – maybe a ton of money. The Marlins reportedly had an operating income loss this year of as much as $70 million. While that number should be taken with a grain of salt – the Marlins themselves are not necessarily their owners’ only baseball-related revenue stream, and operating income may be less important than asset appreciation – at least one anonymous investor has said that the new group does not have great liquidity and thus intends to reduce 2018 payroll to between $55M and $85M. After arbitration raises and an $8M deferred signing bonus due to Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins are looking at perhaps $125M in opening day payroll. That leaves them looking to cut $40-70M in 2018 obligations, if that investor is correct.
Prospects. Miami’s farm system is poor. Baseball America’s most recent update put it dead last in baseball. Normally I’d say more about a system for an organization profile, but Miami lacks impact talent that is anywhere near MLB-ready. Their highest-rated prospects are teenage pitchers, one of whom (Braxton Garrett) had Tommy John surgery last year and the other of whom (Trevor Rogers) is a 2017 draftee who threw zero innings in pro ball last year. And they lack quality depth: compare how quickly one gets to C+ prospects in John Sickels’ Marlins evaluation this year compared to the Cardinals. Supplemental round pick Brian Miller had a solid debut last year, but other than that, there were few bright spots for this farm system in 2017.
Pitching. The Marlins rotation was the second-worst in the National League, behind only the putrid Reds. FanGraphs has Marlins overall pitching as the second-worst group in the NL by projections, as well. Wei-Yin Chen has been expensive, bad, and hurt; so has Edinson Volquez. Dan Straily anchored the rotation last year. Ouch.
Strengths
Outfielders, outfielders, outfielders. The Marlins tied the Yankees for the best outfield in baseball this year, with 16 collective wins above replacement. Giancarlo Stanton (6.9 fWAR), Christian Yelich (4.5 fWAR), and Marcell Ozuna (4.8 fWAR) all played at All-Star levels or better. Stanton was fully healthy for the first time in a while, appearing in 159 games. He’s great, but he’s owed a whopping $295M through 2027 (with a player opt-out after 2020). Yelich has established himself as a 4+ win guy who can play all three OF positions, is only 25, and is signed to a club-friendly extension through 2021. Ozuna has a shorter track record of stardom (this was a breakout year), and only has two years of team control left, but he did have a heck of a year.
Random pieces: 2B Dee Gordon had a nice bounceback from a tough 2016 campaign, putting up 3.3 fWAR. He’s owed a modest $37M through 2020, with a $14M option for 2021. Catcher J.T. Realmuto has quietly put up 7 wins over the last two seasons, and will enter arbitration in 2018. Utility infielder Derek Dietrich is a solid, cheap player. And like all teams, the Marlins have at least a couple interesting bullpen arms: former Cardinal farmhand Kyle Barraclough strikes a ton of guys out (26.6% this year, down from 36.9% last year), as does Drew Steckenrider (35.8% in 2017).
What they should do
Remember when I said that without several significant acquisitions and/or breakouts, the Marlins would continue projecting as a sub-500 club? Well, they don’t have money or prospects with which to pursue acquisitions, nor do they have breakout candidates waiting in the wings. They could hope for their MLB roster to spontaneously produce a dozen extra wins from nowhere, but that’s not a plan. Instead, they should go the White Sox route, tear this thing down to the studs, and embark on a 3-5 year rebuild.
But will they? Again, new ownership has apparently decided to put somebody with no player valuation experience in charge, which introduces unpredictability. Will Jeter understand that Stanton’s massive contractual liability makes him likely less valuable than Yelich (owed a mere $43.25M through 2021) in trade, or will he see 59 home runs and expect a Chris Sale-type package? Or, on the flip side, might Jeter delude himself into thinking that trading Stanton or Yelich for a couple rotation stabilizers would put the team on the path to quick contention? It’s hard to say; the only strong expectation we should have for the Marlins coming into this offseason is that they’ll shed payroll, I think.
How they match up with St. Louis
If you merged these two organizations, and then spun off two teams with the goal of creating one top-tier contender and one well-positioned rebuilding team, I think you’d succeed on both counts. These teams match up great. Miami needs to shed payroll, has stars that don’t really fit its payroll situation or likely window of contention, and has a thin and bad farm. St. Louis has ample payroll space, is a present contender if it adds stars, and has a strong and deep farm.
Miami’s reportedly acute need to reduce its 2018 payroll means the Cardinals could get creative here, as well. Miami has a number of unproductive dead-weight contracts. Volquez is owed $13M but may not pitch at all after Tommy John surgery, Chen has not produced much but is owned $18M next year and $20M in 2019, relievers Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler are owed $16M between them next year, and Martin Prado may not be a guy you want to pay $28.5M for 2018-19, seeing how he’ll soon be 34 and is coming off a major knee injury. This offers the Cardinals an opportunity: taking on a bad contract for nothing provides the Marlins with value. So the Cards could take one of the Marlins’ stars, and pay for him through some combination of giving cheaper MLB-level players, giving prospects, and assuming bad contracts.
Sample trade ideas
- Giancarlo Stanton (and his entire contract) + Drew Steckenrider for Randal Grichuk, Jack Flaherty, Jose Adolis Garcia, and Austin Gomber. Probably an overpay in cold hard numbers depending on how exactly you project Stanton (remember, there’s a ton of variability in his projected value), but I suspect Jeter’s not wired to assess these things in terms of surplus value. He may be wired to get super excited about Randal Grichuk’s tools, though.
- Christian Yelich + Wei-Yin Chen (and his entire contract) for Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Dakota Hudson, Gomber, and Junior Fernandez. The Marlins get $25M of their 2018 payroll shedding done, along with four guys who are close to ready for MLB roles and would each make the minimum (plus whatever you think Fernandez is).
Although it is a little strange to feel this insistent about a trade with any particular organization, unless Jeter proves totally unreasonable about things (which he might), if the Cards can’t find a deal of some sort with the Marlins it will be disappointing. This may be the first of these I’ve done this year, but I doubt there’s a more obviously complementary organization out there for St. Louis.