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How do the St. Louis Cardinals' stats at the one-quarter point of the 2015 season compare to the VEB projections?

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Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals played their 41st game of the 2015 season on Thursday afternoon in New York. That means they have played one-fourth of their 162 games this year so far. Actually, if we want to get specific, the Cards had completed one-quarter of their schedule after the bottom of the fourth inning on Wednesday night against the Mets—25% of 162 is 40.5.

Since our Cardinals have completed the first quarter of the season, I thought it might be fun to see how their batting stats compare to the preseason VEB Community projections. For the uninitiated, there are numerous projection systems for baseball out there and all of them use an analytical regression approach to forecasting performance in the season to come. At VEB, we add a human element by way of crowd wisdom. We collect projection submission from VEB Community members for the various Cardinals, average them, and see how our collective forecasts stack up against the spreadsheet projections at the end of the year.

Today, though, we aren't going to compare the VEB Community projections to the spreadsheet forecasts. We're going to compare them to the players' respective performances through the Cardinals' first 41 games. This allows us to see who is under- or over-performing expectations and in what ways.

Yadier Molina


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

514

60

12

68

4

.291

.343

.424

.767

.347

2015

149

8

0

15

0

.294

.345

.353

.698

.306

% or Diff

29.0%

13.3%

0.0%

22.1%

0.0%

+.003

+.002

-.071

-.069

-.041

Matt Adams


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

521

65

21

79

2

.283

.328

.476

.804

.356

2015

133

10

4

18

1

.244

.271

.370

.641

.277

% or Diff

25.5%

15.4%

19.0%

22.8%

50.0%

-.039

-.057

-.106

-.163

-.079

Kolten Wong


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

564

74

15

63

24

.276

.330

.423

.753

.339

2015

166

23

5

22

3

.309

.355

.467

.822

.354

% or Diff

29.4%

31.1%

33.3%

34.9%

12.5%

+.033

+.025

+.044

+.069

+.015

Matt Carpenter


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

642

104

11

67

6

.294

.381

.427

.808

.371

2015

166

29

7

24

0

.311

.373

.574

.947

.403

% or Diff

25.8%

27.9%

63.6%

35.8%

0.0%

+.017

+.008

+.147

+.139

+.033

Jhonny Peralta


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

594

64

18

75

2

.271

.334

.438

.772

.347

2015

171

19

6

21

1

.296

.363

.487

.850

.367

% or Diff

28.8%

29.7%

33.3%

28.0%

50.0%

+.025

+.029

+.049

+.078

+.020

Matt Holliday


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

593

90

21

91

3

.286

.367

.464

.831

.375

2015

165

17

3

23

2

.328

.442

.463

.905

.392

% or Diff

27.8%

18.9%

14.3%

25.3%

66.7%

+.042

+.075

-.001

+.074

+.017

Jon Jay


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

480

59

4

45

7

.283

.339

.370

.709

.315

2015

115

11

0

6

0

.248

.330

.267

.597

.272

% or Diff.

24.0%

18.6%

0.0%

13.3%

0.0%

-.035

-.009

-.103

-.112

-.043

Jason Heyward


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

609

91

20

82

19

.283

.367

.452

.819

.364

2015

160

23

4

12

4

.245

.300

.388

.688

.301

% or Diff

26.3%

25.3%

20.0%

14.6%

21.1%

-.038

-.067

-.064

-.131

-.063

FanDuel

SBN has entered into an exclusive partnership with FanDuel for daily fantasy baseball. Max Scherzer is starting against the lowly Phillies lineup—a matchup that is at once boring and makes Scherzer expensive in FanDuel. Mike Leake sports a fair-sized platoon split, with lefties hitting for a wOBA 25 points higher than righties over his career. Leake faces the Indians today. Jason Kipnis has posted a career .292 wOBA vs. lefties and a .350 wOBA vs. righties. Due to the combination of their platoon splits, I like Kipnis against Leake. You can play FanDuel by clicking here.