If Christian Yelich played every game against the Cardinals - A Hunt and Peck

Most players have only played in less than 20 games so far in 2019. That is not a lot of data points and certainly not enough to draw any truly meaningful conclusions.

But this is Hunt and Peck and that is not what we are here to do!

Christian Yelich has played in five games against the Cardinals with a total of 23 plate appearances. In those plate appearances, here is how he has hit:

I would like to particularly call out 7 of Yelich’s 8 home runs have been at Miller Park against the Cardinals. The good news — I guess — is this line is so ridiculous it will have to regress sometime. There is no way it wouldn’t, right? RIGHT???

But what if it did not? Let’s project it out!

For an even bleaker picture, let’s look at a graph of the home runs by game at that rate (games played is on the x axis):

Lastly, let’s get beyond ridiculous here. Here is what it would look like if Christian Yelich maintained this rate of production against the Cardinals and only played the Cardinals for a 162-game season...

I need to double check, but I think 227 home runs in a season would be a record.

I think if we have learned anything from this ridiculous exercise — and that is a big IF here — it is that for one thing, Christian Yelich is playing out of his mind against the Cardinals right now. One thing to consider is that he has played all of those games at home at Miller Park and so far, Miller Park is the only place he has homered. Of course, he has played eight games at home and five have been against the Cardinals. How big of an influence each is playing — if any at all — is tough to say. This is all small sample size data, which brings me to our second point. Christian Yelich will not continue to hit like this against the Cardinals, at least it is very statistically unlikely that he will. For some sick reason sequencing has made almost all of hi success come against the Cardinals, but eventually he will start hitting better against other teams and worse against the Birdos. It will all even out with more data. It will!

Or he will accomplish something historic! Who knows? As for right now, he is being so ridiculous it became necessary to make charts and graphs to show it.

what else is going on in baseball...

Jose Altuve homers for fifth straight game | MLB.com

Early update on each club's newest acquisition | MLB.com

Fastballs Are Faster (and Rarer) Than Ever | FanGraphs Baseball

MLB notes: Mariners home runs, Red Sox pitching woes, Chris Davis & more | SBNation.com

what the cardinals are up to...

Top prospect performers for Monday April 15 | St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler O'Neill left Monday's game early with arm soreness | St. Louis Cardinals

KNOW THINE ENEMY...

the milwaukee brewers

Christian Yelich wallops three homers, drives in seven as Brewers top Cardinals, 10-7 | Brew Crew Ball

Yelich singlehandedly beats the Cardinals 10-7 (or so it seems) | Viva El Birdos

the nl central

Kyle Schwarber's strikeout ends Cubs' comeback | MLB.com

Yasiel Puig returns to Dodger Stadium on Monday | MLB.com

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