Tommy John surgery is a very costly injury from a team and player perspective. Because of this fact, many people have tried many different methods to limit the risk of Tommy John and identify the causes. Teams have most likely developed many different models that attempt to predict pitchers most likely to snap. We mere peasants do not have the same resources and access that teams have, but that has not kept many brave citizens from trying to solve this expensive mystery. The most recent is Bradly Woodrum from MLB Trade Rumors. Using pitcher handedness, standard deviation of release point, days lost to shoulder/arm injury, past Tommy John surgeries, use of hard pitches, and ERA-, he has compiled a listing of pitchers and their Tommy John risk factors. I have summed up what he found on the Cardinals pitchers below:
Good news for all you Broxton, Lyons, and Maness fans - they look to have the least risk on the team. Those in favor of Mike Leake deal have another reason to like the signing. A lot of clenching among El Gallo fans as he ranks near the top, just after Lance Lynn who has already undergone TJ.
*** Before you ask, I have already reached out to Bradley about the omission of Adam Wainwright. I suspect it is due to his injury last year preventing him from compiling enough innings and causing him to fall off the list. I will update later if I hear back from him.
***** Bradley confirmed my suspicions. The innings pitched limit was set at thirty, so Wainwright did not fall into the analysis.
Shout out to Mark of OKC for sending me this link!
what else is going on in baseball...
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- Jose Bautista tells Blue Jays extension terms | bluejays.com
- Don Mattingly bans Marlins players from growing sweet mustaches like he had in the '80s | SBNation.com
what the cardinals are up to...
- All players on hand in Cards' camp; first full workout Tuesday : Sports | STL Today
- Hochman: '11 WS champ Jackson talks about Cards-Cubs rivalry : Sports | STL Today
- Goold: Cardinals consider who could be Yadi's heir : Sports | STL Today
KNOW THINE ENEMY...
the nl central
- Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo run 'Grandpa Rossy' Instagram account following David Ross around | MLB.com
- Pirates' McCutchen favors three-game Wild Card | MLB.com
- Pitchers try protective caps | MLB.com
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