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The Cardinals most likely to have Tommy John surgery - A Hunt and Peck

Bradley Woodrum from MLB Trade Rumors has put together a very interesting spreadsheet of players at a high risk to go under the knife.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Tommy John surgery is a very costly injury from a team and player perspective. Because of this fact, many people have tried many different methods to limit the risk of Tommy John and identify the causes. Teams have most likely developed many different models that attempt to predict pitchers most likely to snap. We mere peasants do not have the same resources and access that teams have, but that has not kept many brave citizens from trying to solve this expensive mystery. The most recent is Bradly Woodrum from MLB Trade Rumors. Using pitcher handedness, standard deviation of release point, days lost to shoulder/arm injury, past Tommy John surgeries, use of hard pitches, and ERA-, he has compiled a listing of pitchers and their Tommy John risk factors. I have summed up what he found on the Cardinals pitchers below:

Name Prediction Risk Risk
Above Average
Lance Lynn 0.99 3% 102
Carlos Martinez 0.89 3% 81
Michael Wacha 0.79 2% 61
Trevor Rosenthal 0.64 2% 29
Jaime Garcia 0.60 2% 23
Kevin Siegrist 0.47 1% -5
Tim Cooney 0.44 1% -10
Mike Leake 0.44 1% -11
Seth Maness 0.38 1% -23
Tyler Lyons 0.27 1% -44
Jonathon Broxton 0.13 0% -74

Good news for all you Broxton, Lyons, and Maness fans - they look to have the least risk on the team. Those in favor of Mike Leake deal have another reason to like the signing. A lot of clenching among El Gallo fans as he ranks near the top, just after Lance Lynn who has already undergone TJ.

Be sure to check out Bradley's work as it further explains his process in great detail.

*** Before you ask, I have already reached out to Bradley about the omission of Adam Wainwright. I suspect it is due to his injury last year preventing him from compiling enough innings and causing him to fall off the list. I will update later if I hear back from him.

***** Bradley confirmed my suspicions. The innings pitched limit was set at thirty, so Wainwright did not fall into the analysis.

Shout out to Mark of OKC for sending me this link!

Predicting Tommy John Surgeries | MLB Trade Rumors

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