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Cardinals Analysis

Ponce de Leon - Extreme Fastball Pitcher?

Ponce de Leon featured a dramatic change in his pitch type ratios in his first start. That appears to be a one-start blip, but the immediate results are intriguing.

2021 Season Predictions & Polls

Polls and more polls! Plus my predictions on what will happen this season.

A Starting Pitcher Factory: 2021 Edition

Between 2010-2019, the Cardinals produced a quality major-league ready starter every season. Did that streak continue in 2020? Are they planning for it to happen again in 2021 and beyond?

5 Minute Primer: John Gant as a Starter

A quick-and-dirty "what you need-to-know" look at John Gant’s seemingly inevitable move to the rotation early in the season. Stats, analysis, light humor, and Biblical references included.

Fixing Miles Mikolas’ HR Rate

There was one key factor for Mikolas’ regression from 2018 to 2019: HR/FB rate. Historical trends indicate that should improve, if health doesn’t get in the way.

How Far Would a Home Run Travel on Mars?

We’re back with more pseudo-science and quasi-math to find out how far a Paul Goldschmidt home run would travel if he hit it on Mars. Why? Because we can.

Who Should Close?

The Cardinals are heading to camp without a set closer. Do they need one? Who should it be? How should the club order bullpen roles?

(Update: Cards Acquire C Ali Sanchez) Catcher: Playing Time & Production Projections

Molina is locked in. Knizner is set to be the backup. We can now make some projections about catcher playing time and production for 2021.

2021 Cardinals: Best DEF team of the last 50 years?

Arenado’s addition plus an excellent supporting core should make the 2021 Cardinals one of the franchise’s best defensive teams of the last half-century.

Evaluating Mike Maddux’s Impact

Mike Maddux is entering year four. Pitching remains the heart and soul of the Cardinals’ roster. How has Maddux done? How do we evaluate his coaching performance?

Winter Warm-Up: Update and Reactions

This weekend’s virtual Winter Warm-Up provided some possible answers to critical questions about the season, including offers to Yadi and Waino, how many fans will be in the stands, and a look at current payroll.

Alex Reyes as a Starter: Balancing Ks, BBs, & HRs

Alex Reyes was spectacular in 2020. Can he translate that to the rotation in 2020? Yes. If he finds the right balance of rate stats.

A “Competitive Core”, “What Ifs” and Paul DeJong

If the Cardinals want to project a contending, 90-win roster, they need more production from their core. That’s where Paul DeJong comes in.

Expecting a Breakout Season For Carlson in 2021

Expected stats and pitch-type data point toward significant improvement from Dylan Carlson next season.

All I want for Christmas is … Tommy LaStella?

The versatile utility infielder with a consistent bat is the right combination of practical, budget-friendly, and satisfying to put on your Cardinals Christmas list!

Hunting for Good News About Matt Carpenter

For now, Matt Carpenter is the de facto starter at third in 2021. Can he have a bounceback season?

No DH Challenges the Cardinals “Platoon Plan”

MLB told the NL clubs not to assume a DH in 2021. That’s good news for NL purists but bad news for the Cardinals offseason plans.

Non-Tenders Flood Market with Mediocrity

A fresh group of intriguing but not very productive players were added to the free agent market yesterday.

Harrison Bader is Improving Against Breaking Balls

It’s all about breaking balls for Bader. His improvements have him trending up.

Vaccine News is Good News for Everyone (Including the Cardinals)

The Cardinals are mired in uncertainty, but good news about a vaccine could help bring needed clarity to payroll and roster decisions.

Who Else Could Get the Payroll Axe?

The Cardinals probably aren’t done cutting payroll. Who else could go?

Quantifying the Impact of COVID on the Cardinals

How much did COVID impact the 2020 season and how should that affect roster decisions for 2021?

Best of the 2020 Season: Offense/Defense

Plenty of highlights and analysis as we break down the best overall and single-game offensive and defense performances by the Cardinals this season.

How Fast Was Bob Gibson’s Fastball?

The velocity of Bob Gibson’s 4-seam fastball is oft-discussed but never answered. Can we end the debate once and for all? Sure we can! All we need is pseudo-science, quasi-math, and a decent video editor.

Pham vs. Bader: Revisiting the Tommy Pham Trade

The Tommy Pham trade is pain for Cardinal fans. Has it really been so bad? We look at Pham vs. Bader and get surprising results that you will love to hate.

Why Gomber Has Been So Good

Gomber has had an excellent season filling a "do everything" role for Shildt. Here are four keys to his success and some thoughts on his role for 2021.

A Starting Pitcher Factory: Revisited

In November, I called the Cardinals a starting pitcher factory. Did their development streak continue this season? How does the rotation look for 2021?

Matt Carpenter and the End of Optimism

I’m running out of optimistic things to say about Matt Carpenter, who is now among the worst hitters in the game. Is there any hope for him?

What to do with Tommy Edman

Edman’s minor league profile and current production does not match with his usage. Why is he seeing so much playing time — even in the outfield — and how should the club use him?

Extreme Pitch Ratios & What They Mean for the Offense

The Cardinals have seen some extreme pitch-type ratios in this early season. Will they continue? How are they affecting the offense?

Cards Climb Back to .500 with 9-3 Victory over Cubs at Wrigley

That’s a winner!

Age, Analytics, & Letting it All Come Together: Carlson’s Path to the Majors

Carlson’s path to the majors is a fascinating study in the value of scouting, age-per-level, and analytics over traditional box score stats.