Viva El Birdos - St. Louis Cardinals Winter Meetings RoundupA St. Louis Cardinals Fan Communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50051/veb-fav.png2014-12-12T11:04:18-05:00http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/stream/71223462014-12-12T11:04:18-05:002014-12-12T11:04:18-05:00Hunt and Peck: EVERYONE GETS TRADED
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<figcaption>Jeff Curry/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Winter Meetings, ya'll... </p> <p>This year's Winter Meetings has been BONKERS.</p> <p><span></span></p> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>This was the most hectic <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WinterMeetings?src=hash">#WinterMeetings</a> in recent memory. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLBTonight?src=hash">#MLBTonight</a> <a href="http://t.co/FRs1HpsYpv">pic.twitter.com/FRs1HpsYpv</a></p> — MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/543231280750395392">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> <p> </p> <p><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span></p> <p> </p> <h5>what else is going on in baseball...</h5> <p> </p> <ul> <li> <span><span>Dan Haren</span> and Dee Gordan are now <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a>. - </span><a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/10/report-the-dodgers-and-marlins-are-discussing-an-andrew-heaney-dee-gordon-deal/related/?utm_network=twitter&utm_post=3239290&utm_source=TW%20%40NBCSports&utm_tags%20=" target="_blank">Hardball Talk</a>; <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24879384" target="_blank">CBS Sports</a> </li> <li> <span>Barry Zito</span>. *snarls* - <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/11/barry-zito-will-throw-for-teams-in-january/" target="_blank">Hardball Talk</a> </li> <li>Andrew Friedman is out of control and must be stopped before he dooms us all. - <a href="http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/103809606/andrew-friedman-los-angeles-dodgers-matt-kemp-trades-jimmy-rollins" target="_blank">Sports on Earth</a> </li> <li>The <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Yankees</a> couldn't afford Brandon McCarthy. Okkkkay. - <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/11/brian-cashman-says-brandon-mccarthy-was-at-a-level-that-we-couldnt-play-on/" target="_blank">Hardball Talk</a> </li> <li>Here is a summary of the Winter Meetings transactions. - <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103832522/2014-winter-meetings-transactions-summary" target="_blank">MLB</a> </li> <li> <span> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>"It helps if the hitter thinks you're a little crazy." -Nolan Ryan <a href="http://t.co/ESGt6oxW27">pic.twitter.com/ESGt6oxW27</a></p> — Dugout Legends (@DugoutLegends) <a href="https://twitter.com/DugoutLegends/status/543231688021512193">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> </span><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span> </li> </ul> <h5>what the cardinals are up to...</h5> <li> <span>Looking good, Carlos!<br> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>.<a href="https://twitter.com/Cardinals">@Cardinals</a>' <a href="https://twitter.com/Tsunamy27">@Tsunamy27</a>'s line from yesterday's game for <a href="https://twitter.com/aguilascibaenas">@aguilascibaenas</a> - 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB & 5 K in a win <a href="http://t.co/MgYOEKqjTv">pic.twitter.com/MgYOEKqjTv</a></p> — MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/542078148062756866">December 8, 2014</a> </blockquote> </span><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span> </li> <li> <span>Carlos Martinez</span> will be getting a new number. - <a href="http://mlb.com/fancave/blog/article.jsp?content=article&content_id=103559648&partnerId=th_twitter" target="_blank">MLB Fancave</a> </li> <li> <span>Mark Reynolds</span> is a Cardinal. - <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/11/mark-reynolds-signs-with-the-cardinals/" target="_blank">Hardball Talk</a> </li> <li>Get him some sunflower seeds and just sit back and enjoy. - <a href="http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/112317-A-picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words." target="_blank">Orioles Hangout</a> </li> <li> <a href="http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/112317-A-picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words." target="_blank"></a><span> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>At the risk of destroying my generally good relationship with the Cards blogosphere: Reynolds ZiPS: 218/311/402, 96 OPS+.</p> — Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) <a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/543134417733287937">December 11, 2014</a> </blockquote> </span><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span> </li> <li> <span></span><span> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>Reynolds, 31, has hit 20 or more HR in each of the last 7 seasons. One of 6 players in MLB (Holliday, Cabrera, Pence, Ortiz, McCann).</p> — <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a> (@Cardinals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cardinals/status/543229156486443008">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> </span><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span> </li> <li>I am not entirely sure if <span>Jason Motte</span> is technically a Cardinal anymore, but this is adorable. <br> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TBT?src=hash">#TBT</a> to when I could hit <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LittleSlugger?src=hash">#LittleSlugger</a> <a href="http://t.co/SXMYILK5Pa">pic.twitter.com/SXMYILK5Pa</a></p> — Jason Motte (@JMotte30) <a href="https://twitter.com/JMotte30/status/543275015345430528">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </li> <h5>KNOW THINE ENEMY...</h5> <h5>the nl central</h5> <p> </p> <ul> <li> <span>The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cubs</a> sign <span>Jon Lester</span>. - </span><a href="http://deadspin.com/cubs-sign-jon-lester-are-really-going-for-it-1669238094?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow" target="_blank">Deadspin</a>: <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/12/10/7367865/cubs-sign-jon-lester-contract-baseball-free-agency" target="_blank">Beyond the Box Score</a> </li> <li> <span>Pat Neshek</span> was almost a Pirate. - <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/10/pat-neshek-was-seconds-away-from-signing-with-pirates/" target="_blank">Hardball Talk</a> </li> <li>Hank the ballpark pup raised over $150,000 for the Wisconsin Humane Society. - <a href="http://www.wisn.com/news/brewers-hank-raise-more-than-150000-for-humane-society/30183228?utm_campaign=WISN&utm_content=cTPlyK&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=trueAnthem:+New+Content#!cTPlyK" target="_blank">WISN</a> </li> </ul> <h5>viva el stuff...</h5> <p> </p> <li> <span> <blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet"> <p>Take this outta my hands, internet people. Which <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardstoons?src=hash">#Cardstoons</a> logo you prefer? (reply 1, 2, or 3) <a href="https://twitter.com/vivaelbirdos">@vivaelbirdos</a> <a href="http://t.co/pw58EWiXNv">pic.twitter.com/pw58EWiXNv</a></p> — Andy Beard (@aswb83) <a href="https://twitter.com/aswb83/status/543225606196822017">December 12, 2014</a> </blockquote> </span><span> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </span> </li> <p> </p> <ul> <li> <span>Help this Englishman see the light! - </span><a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/6/7345455/help-an-englishman" target="_blank">Viva el Birdos</a> </li> </ul> <p> </p> <h5>other things...</h5> <p> </p> <ul> <li> <span>The Blues won last night. - </span><a href="http://www.stlouisgametime.com/" target="_blank">St. Louis Game Time</a> </li> <li>The Rams lost last night. - <a href="http://www.turfshowtimes.com/" target="_blank">Turf Show Times</a> </li> <li>A time capsule from 1775 was discovered in Boston. - <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fnation%2F2014%2F12%2F11%2Fboston-another-time-capsule-unearthed%2F20272595%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vivaelbirdos.com%2F2014%2F12%2F12%2F7380631%2Fhunt-and-peck-you-get-traded-and-you-get-traded-and-everybody-gets" target="_blank" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">USA Today</a> </li> </ul> <div><span>Send me links you want to share by tweeting me @lil_scooter93 or e-mailing me at lil_scooter93@msn.com!</span></div>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/12/7380631/hunt-and-peck-you-get-traded-and-you-get-traded-and-everybody-getslil_scooter932014-12-12T07:00:04-05:002014-12-12T07:00:04-05:00Cards 40-man & payroll after free agent signings
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<p>DeWallet is open for business as the Cardinals' 2015 payroll continues to rise.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a> have been busy remaking their roster in the weeks since the untimely passing of 22-year-old outfielder Oscar Taveras. They have added the following players, which has increased payroll by around $16.8 million from where it sat the week after the World Series' final out:</p>
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<ul>
<li><span><span>Jason Heyward</span> ($8.3 million)</span></li>
<li><span><span>Jordan Walden</span> (about $3 million forthcoming via the salary-arbitration process)</span></li>
<li><span><span>Matt Belisle</span> ($3.5 million base with bonuses based on appearances)</span></li>
<li><span><span>Mark Reynolds</span> ($2 million base with bonuses)</span></li>
</ul>
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<p>And there still may be a move or two yet to occur. The possibility exists that the Cardinals may yet carry through with their late-October plan to trade lefthanded specialist <span>Randy Choate</span>, a move that would actually reduce payroll since he set to be the second- or third-highest-paid reliever on the club in 2015. A righthanded reliever also feels like a possibility, given the lack of righties available for relief duty if <span>Carlos Martinez</span> opens the season as the team's fifth starter. St. Louis also has an interest in adding a No. 5 starter and/or long man type in January, if the price is right. But these potential moves are all minor—the 2015 Cardinals roster is by and large in place with Thursday's signing of Reynolds. An extension with <span>John Lackey</span> and/or <span>Lance Lynn</span> that could impact the 2015 payroll also appears possible.</p>
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<p>The roster graphic has some certainty to it and some estimation.</p>
<p>The major-league deals in red are guaranteed base salaries; some of the players (like Belisle and Reynolds) could earn more if they meet benchmarks that trigger bonuses.</p>
<p>The arbitration-eligible player salaries in blue are <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2015.html" target="new">projections from MLB Trade Rumors</a>. These figures are not yet set in stone and likely represent a middle ground between what the player will submit as a 2015 salary and what the Cardinals will, during the arbitration process. Most, if not all, will sign a compromise contract that avoids the either/or arbitration hearing.</p>
<p>MLB clubs have the discretion to pay players eligible for the league minimum a salary higher than the minimum. The Cardinals do this based upon service time, but haven't released their formula. Further complicating matters, MLB hasn't put out the league minimum salary level for 2015 yet. So I've guesstimated what players who are league minimum eligible will earn in 2015. Almost assuredly, each of them will earn something between $500,000 and $550,000, so the range isn't all that large.</p>
<p>Based on these projections, guesstimations, and guarantees, the 2015 Cardinals payroll (without another signing) will be around $119 million. DeWallet is open. The Cards are in it to win it in 2015.</p>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/12/7380659/st-louis-cardinals-free-agent-signings-mark-reynolds-matt-belisle-40-man-roster-payrollBen Humphrey2014-12-11T19:08:05-05:002014-12-11T19:08:05-05:00Justin Masterson signs with Red Sox
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<figcaption>Brian Garfinkel/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The former Boston farmhand is returning to the organization that drafted him.</p> <p>Former <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> righthander <span>Justin Masterson</span> signed a<a href="http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/12/11/7377023/red-sox-sign-free-agent-justin-masterson" target="_blank"> one-year, $9 million contract</a> with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a> on Thursday at the Winter Meetings.</p>
<p>The Cardinals traded for the righty at last season's non-waiver trade deadline while he was on the disabled list, hoping that he would bolster a starting rotation weakened by multiple injuries. The move didn't pan out. Masterson made six starts for St. Louis before the Cards relegated him to relief work. Masterson posted a 7.04 ERA, 5.84 FIP, and 4.22 xFIP over 30 2/3 innings pitching for the Redbirds. Between Cleveland and the Cards in 2014, Masterson's ERA was 5.88, to go with a 4.40 FIP and 4.08 xFIP.</p>
<p>The Cardinals are on the periphery of the pitching free-agent market this week, according to general manager John Mozeliak, <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2014/12/1/7309841/st-louis-cardinals-free-agent-rumors-pitching-lester-scherzer-martinez-gonzales-mozeliak" target="_blank">lurking opportunistically</a>. Later during the Hot Stove, they <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/542390679880482816" target="_blank">might add a fifth starter or long man type</a>, if the price is right. And so Masterson, with the warts of injury, mechanical issues, and ineffectiveness that sprouted during 2014, might provide a guidepost regarding the type of pitcher and contract the Cards may ultimately enter into with a free agent.</p>
<p>Is a starter of a similar type to Masterson as a <span>Carlos Martinez</span> insurance policy worth a price somewhere between $7 and $10 million?</p>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/11/7379229/st-louis-cardinals-free-agents-justin-masterson-signs-boston-red-soxBen Humphrey2014-12-11T13:55:00-05:002014-12-11T13:55:00-05:00Cardinals sign swing-and-miss king Mark Reynolds
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<figcaption>Mike McGinnis/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Cardinals needed a righthanded-hitting first base complement to Matt Adams who could hit with power, and that is the type of player they have signed.</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> have built a roster full of players that are good at making contact, difficult to strike out. In part due to these traits, which can be found up and down the lineup, the Cardinals haven’t hit for a lot of power these last couple years—especially in 2014. Enter free agent <span>Mark Reynolds</span>, an all-or-nothing batting talent, who St. Louis signed to a one-year deal, <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/543097138230480899" target="new">according to a Jon Heyman of CBS</a>. The contract is worth a guaranteed base salary of $2 million, <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/543112096775667715" target="new">according to Derrick Goold</a> of the <em>St. Louis Post-Dispatch</em>, with incentives. Goold also <a href="https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/543100021005377537" target="new">tweeted</a> that, "Of the candidates for the bench, Renolds was always the best fit." I found this observation intriguing because, by offensive profile, Reynolds is an anti-Cardinal, a bizarro Birdo: he hits the ball a long way if he hits it at all.</p>
<p>In his career, Reynolds has struck out 31.9% of the time he has dug into a major-league batter’s box. The righthanded slugger has never struck out in fewer than 28.2% of his plate appearances, which he did last year with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a>; the highest K rate of his career occurred in 2010, at 35.4%. The MLB K rate for batsmen climbed to its highest point during Reynolds’s career in 2014: 19.9%. Reynolds at his least strikeouty is still a K machine compared to MLB non-pitchers at their most strikeouty.</p>
<p>The primary reason for Reynolds’s oodles of strikeouts is his penchant for swinging and missing.</p>
<p>Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr% on Fangraphs) measures the share of strikes against a batter that are swings-and-misses. Reynolds has posted a career SwStr% to date of 16.3%, with a career high of 17.8% (2009) and low of 13.5% (2012). During Reynolds’s career, major-league non-pitchers haven’t had a SwStr% above 9.3%, which was posted in 2014. In 433 plate appearances with Milwaukee last year, Renolds swung and missed at 15.3% of the strikes against him. That ranked ninth among MLB non-pitchers who notched 400 or more PAs. For an idea of the swinging-strike-rate’s spectrum last season, <span>Matt Carpenter</span>’s 3.3 SwStr% was the lowest in all of baseball among players with at least 400 PAs.</p>
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<p>It’s easy to tie Reynolds’s swings-and-misses and Ks to his swing. He swings hard and generates power when he connects. His .228 career Isolated Power (ISO)—a stat that is similar to Slugging Percentage (SLG), but differs in that it does not consider singles, only extra-base hits—is well above the MLB average for non-pitchers, which has sat between .138 (2014) and .159 (2009) during his years playing in the majors. Last year, while playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park, Reynolds posted a .198 ISO. How that will translate to Busch Stadium, which is pitcher-friendly and particularly hard on righthanded hitters, remains to be seen.</p>
<p>The holes in Reynolds’s powerful swing are further reflected in his contact rate. For his career, Reynolds has made contact 47.7% of the time; his career low is 61.8% (2009), with a high of 68.5% (in 2012 and 2014). MLB non-pitchers during Reynolds’s big-league tenure have had their Contact% fluctuate between 81.1% and 79.6%. It’s no wonder Reynolds has a career batting average of just .229.</p>
<p>The signing also indicates that the Cardinals view their internal righthanded outfield options as satisfactory. <span>Peter Bourjos</span> and, to a lesser extent, <span>Randal Grichuk</span>, are both fine bench outfielders. Bourjos is an otherworldly defender; Grichuk is good patrolling the outfield pastures. Neither is likely to be all that great with a bat in 2015. Steamer projects Bourjos to bat .236/.296/.364 (.294 wOBA, 87 wRC+) and Grichuk .241/.282/.401 (.300 wOBA, 91 wRC+). The signing of Reynolds, who has played 15 innings in the outfield in his career, indicates that the Cards are okay with the Bourjos-Grichuk duo spelling <span>Matt Holliday</span>, <span>Jon Jay</span>, and <span>Jason Heyward</span>.</p>
<p>Early in his career, Reynolds was ostensibly a third baseman. He was only ever allowed to butcher balls at the hot corner because of his ability to bludgeon them with the bat. As his offensive production has fallen off, so too has his playing time at third base. In each of the last three seasons, the majority of Reynolds’s time in the field has come at first base. Reynolds has notched 825 innings at third over the last three seasons combined and 1,809 1/3 going back four years. For comparison: Carpenter played 1,371 innings at the hot corner last year over 158 games. How often will Reynolds spell Carpenter at third base? Not very, because Carpenter isn’t often spelled and, if there’s an injury, the versatile <span>Dean Anna</span> will likely serve as Carpenter’s primary fill-in.</p>
<p>When Reynolds plays in the field, it will most likely be at first base as the righthanded-hitting complement for <span>Matt Adams</span>, a role that much band has been widthed about at this site over the course of the offseason.</p>
<p>The Cardinals identified a specific set of talents they wanted in a bench bat. The signing of Reynolds indicates St. Louis prized power-hitting above all else. It will be interesting to see how often manager Mike Matheny deploys this position-player specialist.</p>
<p><b>Update:</b></p>
<p>The signing is officially official:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>OFFICIAL: St. Louis Cardinals have signed infielder Mark Reynolds to a one-year contract.</p>
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cardinals/status/543226737207676928">December 12, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/11/7377673/st-louis-cardinals-free-agent-rumors-signing-mark-reynoldsBen Humphrey2014-12-11T11:36:13-05:002014-12-11T11:36:13-05:00Could the Cardinals add a Rule 5 Draftee?
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<figcaption>Could we stick it to Luhnow and pick off one of his prospects? | <a href='http://cdn.newslook.com/ac/ac6e858e05fe7bf024fd67667fa45666/images/frame_ext.jpg'>newslook.com</a></figcaption>
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<p>Here are a few players that should garner some interest in the Cardinals front office.</p> <p>The Rule 5 Draft begins at 11:00 CST this morning and with the Cardinals currently sporting open spots on the 40 man roster there's at least the possibility that they could select a player.</p>
<p>Here's a quick summation of Rule 5 eligibility:</p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span>Only players not on a 40 man roster are eligible.</span></li>
<li><span>Players must have four years in the minor leagues if signed at age 19 or older and must have 5 years experience if signed at age 17 or 18.</span></li>
<li><span>The drafting team must have an open spot on their 40 man roster.</span></li>
<li><span>The drafting team must pay the team currently holding the player's rights $50,000 and keep the player on their 25 man roster for the ensuing season. The player must also be active for at least 60 days, so you cannot draft an injured player and DL him for the entire season.</span></li>
<li><span>If the player is removed from the 25 man roster, the original team has first right of refusal to the player's rights for $25,000</span></li>
<li><span>Drafted players may be traded by the drafting team, but the roster implications still apply</span></li>
</ul>
<div>There is also a AAA and AA phase of the draft that do not have 25 man active roster implications, but teams must place those players on their 40 man roster.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Here's a few players t he Cardinals might target:</div>
<div><b><br></b></div>
<div><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=592261" style="background-color: #ffffff;">Delino Deshields Jr.,</a> 2B/OF, Houston Astros</b></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>I was a bit surprised when the Astros left him unprotected, as he is a former first round pick and has moderately good production in the minor leagues. Hit hit .236/.346/.360 in AA last year at age 21, played average defense at both 2B and the OF, and swiped 54 bases while being caught just 14 times. He doesn't have the great contact skills his father, and former Cardinal, had, but he draws a fair amount of walks due to his above average approach and can steal a bag when you need him to. If he didn't hit left handed, I'd think the Cardinals might really be in on him as a possible utility candidate, but his left handedness and his struggles with contact likely take him off the Cardinal shopping list. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow <a target="_blank" href="http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2014/12/09/astros-gm-jeff-luhnow-doubts-delino-deshields-jr-will-be-taken-in-rule-5-draft/#29064101=0">doesn't think that DeShields will get drafted</a>, most likely due to the fact that he just isn't ready for the big leagues quite yet.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=591712" style="background-color: #ffffff;">Oscar Hernandez</a>, C, Tampa Bay Rays</b></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Here's what John Sickels <a target="_blank" href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/3/29/5561198/tampa-bay-rays-top-20-prospects-for-2014">had to say</a> about Hernandez coming into 2014:</div>
<div><br></div>
<blockquote>
<div>
<b style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">Oscar Hernandez, C, Grade C+: </b><span>Excellent defensive reputation and scouts say he has a chance to hit despite .227/286/.364 line in the lower minors last year. Posted a 1.236 OPS in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2011; that was misleading, but at age 20 he has time to develop the offense and his defense will keep the Rays patient.</span>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>He proceeded to hit .249/.301/.401 in A ball last year which compares him awfully well with current Cardinal farm hand, and newly minted catcher, Carson Kelly. He's still young and toolsy and might yet come around with the bat, but hard to make a case for a 40 man spot on a competitive organization for a guy who hasn't yet played above Class A. A project, to be sure, and not one the Cardinals are likely to take a chance on given the three catchers on the 40 man roster already.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=543242" style="background-color: #ffffff;">J.R. Graham</a>, SP/RP, Atlanta Braves</b></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Graham has <a target="_blank" href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=atl#list=atl">one of the better fastballs</a> in the minor leagues, a hard, sinking heater than can touch 100 mph in short stints (sound familiar El Gallo fans?) -- he gets a ton of ground ball outs with it but strikes out fewer than you might suppose (again, seems familiar, right?). Graham had a breakout year in 2012, was named the pitcher of the year in a Braves farm system that had a bevy of pitching talent in it at the time (Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, among others) then suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss the entire 2013 season, despite being able to avoid surgery. There's a lot of upside here, especially as a reliever, but if he could get all the way back to 2012 form Graham is #3 starter material.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>For a team that was likely going to use a 40 man spot for Tyrell Jenkins before trading him, it seems like Graham is a natural fit in the organization should they want to add another power arm to the stable the organization already has.</div>
<p> </p>
<div><br></div>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><b>*************</b></h3>
<p>As for who the Cardinals might lose in the Rule 5? John Mozeliak is on record stating that the Cardinals having anyone drafted is unlikely:</p>
<p><span></span></p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>GM John Mozeliak said there is a "low probability" that the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/stlcards?src=hash">#stlcards</a> make a selection in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft.</p>
— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/LangoschMLB/status/542866568947200001">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
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<p>Color me a bit skeptical with young players with utility and exceptional talent such as Breyvic Valera are exposed. I could see a club snapping up Valera, as he can play anywhere and is a good bat-to-ball hitter as a potential option for their utility man or even snagging Boone Whiting as a potential bullpen arm for a team that doesn't want to pay the exhorbitant market prices that middle relievers seem to be fetching.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-minor-leagues/2014/12/11/7376647/will-the-cardinals-make-any-selections-in-the-rule-5-draftEric M. Johnson2014-12-11T07:00:04-05:002014-12-11T07:00:04-05:00Which STL minor-leaguers are Rule 5 eligible?
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<figcaption>Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A look at the rules governing the Rule 5 draft and which St. Louis Cardinals minor-leaguers of note are eligible for selection in it.</p> <p>Today is the Thursday of the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings, which means that the Rule 5 draft will be held. Whereas the Rule 4 draft involves major-league clubs selecting amateur players who are not affiliated with any other big-league club, the Rule 5 draft involves teams selecting minor-leaguers. The Rule 5 draft is meant to prevent MLB clubs from squirreling away major-league-ready players in the minor leagues. To be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft, a player must meet the following criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li><span>Players not on a major-league team's 40-man roster; and</span></li>
<li>Players who signed at the age of 18 and have played in five professional seasons; or</li>
<li>Players who signed at at the age of 19 and have played in four professional seasons.</li>
</ul>
<p>There are two phases to the Rule 5 draft: (1) Double-A, and (2) Triple-A. Each of the MLB clubs has the opportunity to select a player but they are not obligated to do so. Teams with 40 players on their 40-man roster at the time of the Rule 5 draft are not allowed to make a selection. The draft order is determined by record. Teams select in reverse order of how their major-league club placed in the prior end-of-season standings. So the team with the worst record goes first and the team with the best record goes last.</p>
<p>Once selected, a Rule 5 draftee is added to his selecting club's 40-man roster and the selecting team must pay the minor-leaguer's former club $50,000 for the player's rights. Due to the purpose of the Rule 5 draft, once selected, a draftee must stay on the selecting club's 25-man roster for the entirety of the next MLB season. If the selecting team does not wish to keep a player on its 25-man roster for that time period, it must offer him back to his former team for $25,000. A draftee's former team can reject him, which allows the drafting team to waive the player. The selecting team may also trade a Rule 5 draftee, but the same rules regarding roster placement applies to the team that trades for him.</p>
<p>When the eligibility criteria were different several years back, many more interesting players used to be selected—Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton come immediately to mind. However, MLB and the MLBPA altered the qualification standards, giving players an extra year (whether signed at age 18 or 19) before they become Rule 5 eligible. The rule change means that fewer compelling minor-leaguers are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Consequently, you don't see as many players changing clubs, let alone difference-making talents.</p>
<h4>Which <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cardinals</a> minor-leaguers of note are exposed for this year's Rule 5 draft?</h4>
<p><b>Mike O'Neill</b></p>
<p>A no-pop walk machine, O'Neill's batting profile makes him a Perfect Snowflake of a minor-leaguer. However, his handedness (left) and lack of speed prevent him from playing third base, shortstop, second base, or center field. O'Neill's punchless bat makes him an unlike MLB corner outfielder. After O'Neill split 2014, his age-26 season, between Double-A and Triple-A. Given his age, defensive limitations, and offensive profile, O'Neill has likely become a non-prospect.</p>
<p><b><span>Keith Butler</span></b></p>
<p>We'll start with the most familiar name. Butler made it to The Show in 2013, throwing 20 innings for St. Louis, and made a second appearance last year. You may have caught one of the two MLB innings he threw in 2014, or perhaps both. Unfortunately, Butler's season was <a href="http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article/76672912/cards-butler-latest-to-go-down-with-elbow-injury" target="_blank">cut short</a> by a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), which needed replacement via Tommy John surgery. Butler's 2015 will likely be lost to injury, so the Cards have removed him from their 40-man roster, outrighting him to Triple-A. This leaves Butler unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.</p>
<p><b><span>Jordan Swagerty</span></b></p>
<p>The Cards selected Swagerty in the second round of the 2010 amateur draft out of Arizona State as a reliever. His was a profile that suggested he might quickly climb the St. Louis organization ladder to the majors. But Swagerty also had questions about his arm health and his professional career to date has unfortunately done little to dispel those worries. Swagerty's 2012 was lost to Tommy John surgery. Last year, Swagerty threw just 10 2/3 innings between rookie ball and high-A, thanks to lingering elbow issues that ultimately required a second surgery.</p>
<p><b><span>John Gast</span></b></p>
<p>Another pitcher with an injury history left unprotected. Gast made it to the majors in 2013, but suffered a shoulder injury (a tear to his lat) that ended his season and required corrective surgery. The lefty threw 64 1/3 innings in 2014 until his season was cut short once again by injury in August.</p>
<p><b><span>Boone Whiting</span></b></p>
<p>In the early going of Whiting's minor-league career, he was known as a strike-throwing machine due to his lack of walks. The question was whether his stuff would allow him to miss enough bats and continue to pound the zone as he moved up the ladder. Oddly, Whiting has increased his K rate in each of his two seasons with Triple-A Memphis. But his walk rate has also gone up, to unacceptable levels. Whiting's profile has been turned on its head in the high minors.</p>
<p><b><span>Tyrell Jenkins</span> </b><b>(Former Cardinals Minor-Leaguer)</b></p>
<p>Former Cardinals prospect Tyrell Jenkins was potentially Rule 5 eligible this year. By trading Jenkins, the Cardinals didn't have to worry about protecting him from the Rule 5 draft by placing him on the 40-man roster. The <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Braves</a> have placed Jenkins on their 40-man roster, making the righty ineligible for the draft.</p>
<h4><b>Will the Cardinals make a selection in this year's Rule 5 draft?</b></h4>
<p>It doesn't appear so. General manager John Mozeliak spoke with the media Wednesday night at the Winter Meetings. According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Mozeliak indicated that the Cards did not plan on making a selection in this year's Rule 5 draft:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>GM John Mozeliak said there is a "low probability" that the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/stlcards?src=hash">#stlcards</a> make a selection in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft.</p>
— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/LangoschMLB/status/542866568947200001">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
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</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/11/7375441/st-louis-cardinals-rule-5-draft-2014-whiting-oneill-gast-swagerty-butlerBen Humphrey2014-12-10T20:54:34-05:002014-12-10T20:54:34-05:00Cards interested in Mark Reynolds & Rickie Weeks
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<figcaption>Mike McGinnis/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Cardinals are reportedly kicking the tires on the two former Milwaukee Brewers infielders.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a> came into the Winter Meetings with their team by and large set. There was the potential to add a complementary piece or two, either at the Winter Meetings or later in the offseason. One of the Cardinals' priorities entering this week and for the remainder of the offseason, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, was a righthanded-hitting bench bat to complement <span>Matt Adams</span> and, perhaps, <span>Jason Heyward</span>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>While the Cardinals see this as an opportunistic approach, there is more of a definitive need to add a right-handed-hitting first baseman. That would address the final deficiency on the position player side. The pool to pick from is thin, however, and the Cardinals are finding it tough to sell a part-time role to players who are seeing if an everyday job is available elsewhere.</p>
<p>Finding a player who can bring power and/or positional versatility in this role would be a plus.</p>
<p>"I think that's a tough market right now," Mozeliak said. "When you look at how many at-bats we can offer, where we can get them from excluding any injury, it's not a lot. It's a tough message that we're sending."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As <a target="new" href="http://www.stlbaseballweekly.com/matheny-offseason-moves/">reported</a> by STL Baseball Weekly's Brian Stull, manager Mike Matheny expanded on what Mozeliak shared regarding the club's desires for a bench bat:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"I think any help we can get from the right side, coming off the bench or being able to maybe spell definitely at first base, and possibly in right field, but that may be something we have internally as well," said Matheny. "We have a couple of good candidates. Randall (Grichuk) has shown that he can put together a very good at‑bat if that’s the way our team breaks. So I think we have more coverage in the outfield than we do necessarily at first base. So that is something that we continue to try to open all of the doors that are out there."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Joe <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/10/7365373/as-winter-meetings-heat-up-the-st-louis-cardinals-ponder-using" target="_blank">broke down</a> on Wednesday, the Cardinals' intra-organizational discussions about trying top prospect <span>Stephen Piscotty</span> out at first base. But, as Langosch <a href="http://m.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article/103659310/cardinals-weighing-internal-options-for-righty-hitter-at-first" target="new">shares</a>, that hasn't stopped St. Louis from exploring alternatives:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Even amid dialogue about in-house candidates, the Cardinals continue to focus their free-agent search on bringing someone else in from the outside. Mozeliak met with multiple agents representing right-handed hitters on Tuesday as he continues that pursuit.</p>
<p>The club is not near an agreement with any of them, nor did the Cardinals sound like a team expecting to act during their two remaining days in San Diego.</p>
<p>"I think everybody is sort of in that exploratory mode right now," Mozeliak said. "Everybody is trying to feel everybody out with what's going on. So subsequently, time will tell how some of these things shake out."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Reporting from the Winter Meetings,<i>*</i> <i>St. Louis Post-Dispatch</i> beat writer Derrick Goold <a target="_blank" href="http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/cards-search-includes-weeks-reynolds/article_da5c365f-efea-500e-b567-989f5060f987.html">indicated</a> that the Cardinals had kicked the tires on two former <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Milwaukee Brewers</a> infielders:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Sources have described the Cardinals as interested in two former Milwaukee Brewers who would bring different skills to the role — <span>Rickie Weeks</span> and <span>Mark Reynolds</span>. Both are free agents.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Tom Haudricourt of the <i>Milwaukee Journal Sentinel</i> tweeted about the Cards' interest in Weeks and Reynolds as well.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Cards not only showing interest in Rickie Weeks but also Mark Reynolds. They certainly saw a lot of the former <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Brewers?src=hash">#Brewers</a>.</p>
— Tom (@Haudricourt) <a href="https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/542723344831741952">December 10, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
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<p>I'm interpreting this as Goold and Hauricourt confirming one another's reports.<i>*</i></p>
<p>
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<p>Both Weeks and Reynolds fit the bill of a lefty-mashing complement to the Cards' lefthander-heavy lineup of position players.</p>
<ul>
<li><span>Over his 11-year career, Weeks had notched 1,274 plate appearances against portsiders, hitting .261/.385/.448 (.370 wOBA, 128 wRC+). That 14.5% career walk rate versus lefthanders is pretty remarkable.</span></li>
<li><span>In many ways, Reynolds is the antithesis of the Cardinals' offenses of recent vintage: power (.228 Isolated Power in his career) and strikeouts (career 31.9% K rate). But he has taken 1,199 plate appearances versus lefthanders and posted a line of .231/.351/.458 (.352 wOBA, 114 wRC+).</span></li>
</ul>
<p>The infield-centric nature of these reported inquires indicates that the Cards are intent on having Grichuk as the fifth outfielder come opening day with Stephen Piscotty, who is not on the 40-man roster, starting the year in Triple-A. If Weeks is willing and able to man first base, as well as potentially second and third (if not the outfield) on occasion, I think I'd prefer him to Reynolds. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. The talks are likely only in the exploratory phase and perhaps even of the same due-diligence nature as the communication with Jon Lester's representatives. Nonetheless, they merit monitoring.</p>
<p><i>*</i></p>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/12/10/7374737/st-louis-cardinals-rumors-free-agents-mark-reynoldsBen Humphrey2014-12-10T18:00:00-05:002014-12-10T18:00:00-05:00A potential Lance Lynn extension
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<figcaption>Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>This post originally appeared last month on Viva El Birdos. With the Cardinals and Lance Lynn's agent meeting at this week's Winter Meetings, it is once again relevant.</p> <p>With Michael Wacha injured and <span>Adam Wainwright</span> at less than his best during portions of 2014, <span>Lance Lynn</span> performed the same way he had over the previous three years. He was the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> most consistent pitcher in 2014 and heading into his first year of arbitration, Lynn is due for a big raise. The Cardinals and Lynn could come to terms on a contract extension, but both parties have reasons to avoid an extension. Reaching an agreement is certainly possible this winter, but extensions for pitchers heading into their first season of arbitration are rare.</p>
<p>Very little needs to be said about Lynn's contribution to the team. As <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/10/13/6968355/lance-lynn-is-no-longer-underrated-but-he-has-been-overlooked-in-the" target="_blank">I wrote after his second start </a>in the NLCS, Lynn is eighth in the National League in innings pitched, seventh in strikeouts, and ninth in fWAR since the beginning of 2013. He also had two solid starts in the playoffs, as he "pitched 11 2/3 innings, struck out eleven and walked three for an ERA of 3.09 and a FIP of 2.02." Lynn's accomplishments and steady play is no longer a secret, and there does appear to be some interest in an extension. After the season ended, Derrick Goold <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/dewitt-expects-significant-rise-in-payroll-in-coming-years/article_5a4bc596-8af2-5ffb-8516-648aa2962e1a.html" target="_blank">wrote about the parties' interest</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>General manager John Mozeliak and DeWitt both talk about viewing the payroll and roster in three-year and five-year frames. The growth in the coming years was planned based on the talents the Cardinals expected to graduate into the majors and blossom there as longterm building blocks. Lynn, the team's No. 2 starter coming out of the 2014 season, is about to reach arbitration for the first time, and he will be due the largest raise, percentage-wise, on the team. Both sides have said they would be open to discussing an extension.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, being open to discussing an extension is just the first step. After being open to discussing an extension, then Lynn and the Cardinals need to actually discuss the extension, and then the parties need to come to terms. At the beginning of the season, <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/4/6/5585484/cardinals-rotation-young-starters-contract-extension-candidates" target="_blank">I wrote about the Cardinals' young pitchers lacking contract extensions</a>. At the time, there were ten pre-arbitration deals. I wrote the following about Lynn:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Lance Lynn caught a tough break this offseason, coming just shy of Super-Two status and the higher salaries that come with arbitration. Lynn is likely to play his way out of an extension by the end of the year no matter how he performs this season. If he performs as he has in the past or breaks out and does better, he will likely price himself out of an extension given impending arbitration and the Cardinals' rotation options around him.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Lynn did pitch very well and may have played his way out of an extension. Lynn now has more than three years of service time, more than any of the players who signed extensions referenced in the previous post. Contract extensions for players with Lynn's service time are not common. Using the <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/extensiontracker" target="_blank">Extension Tracker at MLB Trade Rumors</a>, just one contract comes up in the last five years for players with Lynn's service time that lasted longer than two years. In January 2011, <span>Johnny Cueto</span> signed a four-year contract worth $27 million and included a $10 million option for 2015 that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Reds</a> have already happily exercised. The market has changed considerably since then.</p>
<p>Even putting reasonable increases on Cueto's deal ($5, $7, $9, $12, and option for $15 million) gets Lynn just $33 million over the next four years and potentially delays his free agency by two years. The guaranteed money is nice for Lynn given the potential injuries for pitchers, but for a player about to increase his salary by tenfold, Lynn might not want to forego multiple years of free agency. After seeing the paychecks given to <span>Max Scherzer</span>, <span>James Shields</span>, and <span>Jon Lester</span> in the coming months, he will have even more incentive to resist an extension.</p>
<p>From the Cardinals perspective, they will not likely want to commit major money to a player they have cost-controlled for the next three years. The Cardinals have seen with <span>Jaime Garcia</span> the risk of signing pitchers to long-term deals. The Garcia deal was calculated risk, and given the relatively small amount of money guaranteed, a good risk for the Cardinals. To sign Lynn, the Cardinals would likely have to guarantee a 50% (or more) hike over the $27 million that Jaime Garcia received.</p>
<p>If Lynn and the Cardinals cannot reach an agreement on a long-term deal, a shorter deal may be possible to avoid arbitration over the next 2-3 years. Using the same MLB Trade Rumors Extension Tracker, but allowing for contracts under three years, we find five two-year contracts signed by starters since Cueto signed his deal. <span>Jason Hammel</span> (2/7.5), <span>Clayton Kershaw</span> (2/19), <span>Kyle Kendrick</span> (2/7.5), <span>Jhoulys Chacin</span> (2/6.5), <span>Mat Latos</span> (2/11.5) all signed contracts buying out a couple years of arbitration but left free agency intact.</p>
<p>A contract extension between the Cardinals and Lance Lynn is certainly possible, but Lynn will have to give up more than he wants in terms of free agent years and the Cardinals will have to guarantee more money than they have in the past on pre-free-agency extensions. Such extensions have been rare over the past five years. A smaller deal is more likely and would help both sides avoid arbitration, but given the Cardinals increased commitment to payroll, the Cardinals are in position to lock Lynn up should they wish to add to the team's core.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2014/11/4/7153155/a-potential-lance-lynn-extensionCraig Edwards