Viva El Birdos - Cardinals vs. Braves Wild Card news, analysis, and talkA St. Louis Cardinals Fan Communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50051/veb-fav.png2012-10-06T08:05:05-04:00http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/stream/32257872012-10-06T08:05:05-04:002012-10-06T08:05:05-04:00The Cardinals beat the Braves (in a hurry)
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The St. Louis Cardinals and the Atlanta Braves played out a series-worth of stories and situations in one brutal, hectic Wild Card game. </p> <p>The Wild Card game, as it turns out, is a lot like the rest of the postseason, only moreso. It's postseason concentrate, and all of us just drank some right out of the carton by accident. Postseason series have always been susceptible to domination by a single convergence of miscues and poorly placed cues, but with one game in which to dramatize everything going on with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> it seemed more like an overabundance of potential stories fighting each other for space.</p>
<p>2000 years from now anthropologists, digging through piles of refuse and broken containers as is their wont, will remember it as the game in which Chipper Jones—we believe they called him "The Wild Card"—reacted to an obscure burial ritual called the "infield fly" by throwing baseballs into the stands. And Friday, even, it felt a little like that, with Chipper's last game competing and interacting with the Braves' awful defense, and the Cardinals' awful bullpen, and finally the infield fly controversy. Turner Field might still be chanting IN-FIELD-FLY this morning if it hadn't been roused from its garbage-throwing by the need to applaud, once more, one of the five best third basemen ever.</p>
<p>By the time we got to the part with the rulebook and <span>Jason Motte</span> looking uneasy in relief it had been exciting, but it was also <i>exhausting</i>. The raised stakes made these spooky baseball interactions more fun, for the most part. But things felt overheated—turned up this high we got less of the color of <span>Chipper Jones's</span> finale and the Braves' fielding errors and more of the fundamental capriciousness of a win-or-go-home format.</p>
<p>So Chipper Jones seemed almost pushed off the stage, and the infield fly thing wasn't a that's-baseball-for-you interlude in a larger series but cause for a 20-minute delay while people rushed to finish their beers so that they could be used as $9 projectiles. </p>
<p>None of which is to say that I'm entirely against the new Wild Card. But it's jarring to move back to the NLDS, and the opportunity to lose a game in <i>peace</i> once or twice, after watching it. The Wild Card is brutish; it turns 25-man rosters and starting pitchers into blunt instruments. Now, having beaten the Braves to death under the monolith, the Cardinals are being asked to grow their moustachios back and select a dueling pistol with which to defend their honor against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Nationals</a>. </p>
<p>Sunday afternoon in St. Louis we'll see the real postseason. It might be a little tedious after what we just saw, to watch <span>Gio Gonzalez</span> pitch and know that he can't possibly eliminate the Cardinals on the first day. But that sounds good to me, right about now. </p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-analysis/2012/10/6/3463722/cardinals-vs-braves-wild-card-2012Danfiction2012-10-05T21:32:50-04:002012-10-05T21:32:50-04:00Cards advance to NLDS, experience infield fly-gate
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Pending the result of an infield fly rule protest. Because it's the postseason and the Cardinals.</p> <p><b>Cardinals: </b>Pending the results of a protest about everyone's favorite jokey baseball rule, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> advanced to the NLDS Friday. Back in the familiar best-of playoffs, they'll play the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>. <span>Kyle Lohse</span> was sharp, <span>Allen Craig</span> hit a ringing double, and <span>Matt Holliday</span> homered, but for a six-run night on offense the Cardinals didn't play especially well. Both their rallies were founded on noticeably bad throwing errors, and the relievers were not strong enough to prevent an extended trash-throwing nightmare at Turner Field.</p>
<p><b>Braves: </b>Pending the results of a protest about everyone's favorite jokey baseball rule, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> lost their Wild Card play-in game Friday. It was frustrating even before that, though; sailing throws on the infield undermined <span>Kris Medlen</span> from the beginning, and <span>Chipper Jones</span>, playing in the last game of his career, was responsible for the first one. Eventually, for multiple reasons, the Braves scored just one run on eight baserunners against the Cardinals' bullpen. </p>
<p><b>The infield fly rule: </b>I don't think the call was right. I'm learning the actual text of the infield fly rule along with everyone else in this news cycle, but inasmuch as I understand the concepts of "immediately" and "ordinary effort," Pete Kozma's stilted, uncertain gait out to the ball seemed out of the ordinary and the call was not made immediately.</p>
<p>I'm willing to be convinced in either direction by someone who knew the text of the rule before it was necessary. But what I don't like about the call is that invoking the infield fly rule in this situation seems like a needless, legalistic intrusion into the inning. Pete Kozma wasn't going to deke a runner and start a double play—he was going to, and this seemed clear almost immediately, sidle toward the ball half-certain about calling Matt Holliday off.</p>
<p>Even if calling the infield fly rule is justifiable based on the substance of the play, I'm a little shocked that an umpire who's been on so many baseball fields so many times saw the rule bubbling up in what was actually happened. It just wouldn't occur to me, just as it didn't seem to occur to the other umpires.</p>
<p><b>Trash on the field: </b>I've seen a few tweets suggesting that people shouldn't be judgmental inasmuch as they'd probably do it themselves in the same situation. I don't think this is even close to true, and I don't think we, the complaining-on-the-internet-and-not-the-ballpark baseball fanbase, should pretend it is. I don't think it's peculiar to Atlanta, but it was ugly, and a bad call wasn't cause for it. </p>
<p><b>The rest of the game: </b>This will and should color the outcome of the game, but a lot of the if-they-didn't-then-this that's going to happen over the next several days will probably be misguided. If we were able to accurately determine how wild <span>Jason Motte</span> would be if he hadn't come in under a hail of overpriced wax cups after a 20 minute delay, this kind of thing wouldn't be so frustrating. </p>
<p>Even the protest, if it goes through, couldn't tell us what might happen; it can make them start over, but it'll be a different game they're replaying. That's what's terrible about calls like this: The rest of the game we'd been watching until the eighth inning, the sloppy, hectic, exciting play-in game the Cardinals were winning, is lost to us forever. </p>
<p>But pending the results of a protest about the <i>infield fly rule</i>, the godforsaken infield fly rule, the Cardinals won, and now they'll go to the NLDS. And we'll forget, at least in the moment, that the rest of the Cardinals' postseason is hinged in this weird place.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3462692/st-louis-cardinals-nlds-wild-card-protestDanfiction2012-10-05T20:11:27-04:002012-10-05T20:11:27-04:00Infield fly rule riots and the rest of the WC
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<p>That was probably a bad call, and they absolutely shouldn't be doing that.</p> <p>I am not an umpire, and I delegate to umpires the task of determining when the infield-fly rule applies and when it doesn't. But the invocation that got the <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cardinals</a> their second out of the eighth inning seems self-evidently wrong, and it's stupendously frustrating that the outcome of the first NL Wild Card play-in game ever could depend on the incorrect application of one of baseball's least-understood rules.</p>
<p>Also stupendously frustrating—that the game was delayed so long because Turner Field's crowd threw trash onto the field and, according to the TBS broadcasters, at baseball players.</p>
<p>A single-game elimination format magnifies everything. It magnifies the stress that's inherent in the structures of baseball, the joy that comes with a win and the angst that comes with a loss. And it magnifies the anger, the group-level <i>fury</i>, that comes when your team gets jobbed on a weird officiating play. That's not a justification for what's happening right now; part of going to a baseball game, or out in public, is accepting implicitly that you won't allow the things you disagree with to make you into a jackass. </p>
<p>But the nature of this game has turned a bad call into something much more. </p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3462584/turner-field-riot-infield-fly-ruleDanfiction2012-10-05T18:29:58-04:002012-10-05T18:29:58-04:00Cards face bunting down, throw a baseball at it
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Andrelton Simmons gets hit in the head with the baseball of reason to change the course of the fourth inning.</p> <p><span>Kyle Lohse</span> and Kris Medlen might have started out the story of this Wild Card game, but you can't get too close to Mike Matheny on Viva El Birdos, at least, without the subject eventually turning toward bunts. So <span>David Ross</span> and <span>Andrelton Simmons</span> bunted in back-to-back at-bats, because that's exactly what would happen if you turned our experience of this <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> season into a morality play. </p>
<p>If that's the case, though, I'm not sure exactly what the moral is—the Cardinals come out of the inning leading 3-2, because they <i>struck a bunter in the head</i> with a thrown baseball. Andrelton Simmons turned another infinitely frustrating bunt—one that nearly became a series of throwing errors—into a dead-ball out. Have we slain the metaphorical dragon? Have we figured out that the only way to stop the bunting menace is through lethal force?</p>
<p>I'm not sure, exactly. In any case, the Cardinals go into the fifth inning of the Wild Card play-in game leading 3-2, despite <span>Kris Medlen's</span> ERA being measured in kelvins. Things could be much worse, and they aren't, yet!</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3462230/st-louis-cardinals-lead-atlanta-braves-3-2-after-wild-bunt-playDanfiction2012-10-05T17:00:54-04:002012-10-05T17:00:54-04:00Cardinals vs. Braves Open Thread
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Kyle Lohse and Kris Medlen throw glowing discs at each other from atop high platforms, with the loser finding himself derezzed or worse.</p> <p></p>
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<div class="pane sports_data_widget current_series clearfix"> <h3>Current Series</h3> <div class="pane-body"> <h4>1 game series vs Braves @ Turner Field</h4> <table class="zebra"> <tbody><tr style="background: none;"><td colspan="3" style="background: none;"><div class="pane sports_data_widget next_game clearfix"><div class="pane-body"> <p class="game-title"><a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> <span class="blog-hover-link" id="blog_icon_1066817454"><a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/"><img class="sbnstar" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/images/icons/red-star.v37b17e2.png"></a><span class="blog-hover-menu" id="blog_icon_1066817454_menu" style="display: none;"><span class="img"><a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/community_logos/195/birdos_m.gif" alt="Birdos_m"></a></span><span><a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Viva El Birdos</a></span></span></span> <br> <span class="blog_link">@ <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> <span class="blog-hover-link" id="blog_icon_1323136375"><a href="http://www.talkingchop.com/"><img class="sbnstar" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/images/icons/red-star.v37b17e2.png"></a><span class="blog-hover-menu" id="blog_icon_1323136375_menu" style="display: none;"><span class="img"><a href="http://www.talkingchop.com/"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/community_logos/514/talkingchop_m.gif" alt="Talkingchop_m"></a></span><span><a href="http://www.talkingchop.com/">Talking Chop</a></span></span></span> </span></p> <p class="game-info"><span>Friday, Oct 5, 2012, 5:07 PM EDT</span><br> Turner Field</p> <p class="pitchers"><span>Kyle Lohse</span> vs <span>Kris Medlen</span></p> <p class="weather"> Sunny. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 80.</p> <div class="coverage"><div class="entry"> <h5><a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/4/3454572/kris-medlen-vs-the-st-louis-cardinals-battle-of-the-grounder">Kris Medlen vs. the St. Louis Cardinals: Battle of the Grounder</a></h5> <p class="byline"><span class="author">posted by <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/bgh">bgh</a></span> <span class="time">1 day ago</span></p> <p class="byline">511 comments | 0 recs</p> </div></div> <p class="foot clearfix"><span class="link-more"><span>Complete Coverage ></span></span></p> </div></div></td></tr></tbody> </table> </div> </div>
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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3461766/cardinals-vs-braves-wild-card-open-threadDanfiction2012-10-05T10:02:00-04:002012-10-05T10:02:00-04:00Talking Chop answers our burning Medlen questions
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<p>Atlanta Braves blogger Danny Hong explains Kris Medlen, among other Wild Card facts, to your correspondent. </p> <p><i>In honor of the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Atlanta Braves</a> and <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a>' brave experiment to see just how many nihilists a regularly scheduled single-elimination game will make out of otherwise well-adjusted baseball fans, royhobbs of </i><i><a href="http://www.talkingchop.com" target="_blank">Talking Chop</a>—you may remember him from some very gracious visiting-St.-Louis fanposts—</i><i>and I traded five questions about our respective Wild Card teams. You can find my answers to his Pete Kozma-related inquiries over there.</i></p>
<p><b>Holy cow, Kris Medlen. How would you explain the Medlen story to an especially provincial NL Central blogger?</b></p>
<p><b></b>First off, I'd say to not believe all the hype ESPN has heaped upon Kris Medlen, or even the Braves themselves with what they stated was his "recovery plan," conveniently brought up during the hulabaloo behind the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Nationals</a> shutting down <span>Stephen Strasburg</span>.</p>
<p>Prior to the season, there was very little mention of Kris Medlen being in the rotation at all; with the massive depth chart in Spring Training consisting of <span>Tim Hudson</span>, <span>Tommy Hanson</span>, <span>Jair Jurrjens</span>, <span>Brandon Beachy</span> and <span>Mike Minor</span>, with prospects such as <span>Julio Teheran</span> and <span>Randall Delgado</span> waiting in the wings. Jair Jurrjens eventually forgot how to play baseball, Tommy Hanson was hampered by nagging injuries and inconsistencies and Brandon Beachy blew out his elbow. Patchwork like <span>Ben Sheets</span> worked temporarily, but eventually the ball fell into <span>Kris Medlen's</span> hand out of necessity for starting pitching, not out of some carefully-prepared master plan.</p>
<p>Medlen was an effective starter before he required Tommy John in 2010, but the way he's pitched for the Braves this year is still awe-inspiring to the fans now. He may be short and baby-faced, but he exudes a confidence about him and is unafraid to pound the strike zone. His changeup has been his primary weapons when dealing with lefties, and he's one of those quirky pitchers that switch-hits for some reason.</p>
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<p><b> </b></p>
<p><b><b><span>Chipper Jones</span> has had a remarkable career, and will retire a deserving All-Star. Are you glad he's gone out on top, or do you wish he would stick around?</b></b></p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p>Personally, I'm glad Chipper Jones is going out on his own terms, because I hate to see when athletes stick around way longer than they should have, and occasionally play their last games in some other teams' uniforms. In 2012, Chipper hasn't exactly been channeling 1999 all over again, but he has been productive, and has given Braves fans many more great memories with two notable walk-off homers against the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Phillies</a>. The only thing that would make the Chipper Jones story perfect is retiring a champion.</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><b><b>What's behind <span>Brian McCann's</span> off year? </b></b></p>
<p>McCann has been hampered with shoulder and knee woes all year, and will have surgery on his right shoulder to address fraying in his labrum. Additionally, throughout his career, McCann has had a tendency to tire come September, so in the offseason there will likely be continuous efforts to improve his stamina. The Braves will without uncertainty pick up the 2013 option, but personally, I have to question what lies beyond 2013, when McCann becomes eligible for free agency. It all really depends on the development of catching prospect <span>Christian Bethancourt</span>, who will likely be in AAA next year.</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>Medlen aside, who's been the most pleasant surprise of the Braves' season?</b></p>
<p><span>Andrelton Simmons</span>. Throughout his minor league career, he was more seen as a solid glove guy than someone known for his bat. But after the parade of errors caused by <span>Tyler Pastornicky</span> forced the Braves to switch shortstops, Simmons came up and not only flashed the amazing D that was expected of him, but also hit far better than anybody could have imagined. If not for an unfortunate hand injury that derailed him for six weeks, who knows if the Braves couldn't have taken the division?</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><b>If the Braves move on to the NLDS, what's their biggest weakness in a short-but-not-sudden-death series?</b></p>
<p>The Braves have the pitching to compete with any of the playoff teams, but it's the offense that has been susceptible to spontaneous droughts that will be the worry of Braves fans all around. A lot of people haven't noticed it during the sentimental love fest for the departing Chipper Jones, but hasn't been hitting very well, with a 2/25 streak going into Friday's Wild Card game. If <span>Michael Bourn</span> and the top of the order don't do their job adequately, it will be yet another short trip to the playoffs for the Braves.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3459434/cardinals-vs-braves-kris-medlen-wild-cardDanfiction2012-10-05T07:46:35-04:002012-10-05T07:46:35-04:00Rooting for laundry and repeating as champions
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<p>They had to create a new category of playoffs to do it, but the Cardinals have pushed their 2011 season open wider than before.</p> <p>The 2007 Cardinals are what happens when you let quirky winners and against-all-odds contributors sit out for too long. They look about right—you can pick out <span>Albert Pujols</span> and <span>Jim Edmonds</span> and <span>Scott Rolen</span>, and even <span>So Taguchi</span> and <span>Scott Spiezio</span> and <span>Anthony Reyes</span>—but things are off in some evolutionarily significant way, and after some internal debate you just pitch the whole thing and promise to do better about wrapping it next time.</p>
<p>For the Cardinals of the aughts it's kind of hard to draw lines between teams; they were dominated almost all the way through by the presence of Pujols and Tony La Russa, and players bleed through the roster tables as role players and stars and starters. But I think 2007's a full stop for everybody. Jocketty's out, Rolen and Edmonds are out, <span>Ryan Franklin</span> has begun creeping beard-first into the picture.</p>
<p>I bring this up—when I normally try very hard <i>not</i> to—only because it seems like the 2012 Cardinals, who seemed like such a strange break with the past seven months ago, are now a win or two away from being permanently associated with last year's model. Tony La Russa's out, Albert Pujols is out, <span>Lance Berkman</span> is gone and <span>David Freese</span> has played in 144 games, but these are the defending champion <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">St. Louis Cardinals</a>, and they've given themselves a chance to repeat, and it's clear that means something I wasn't expecting, with 2007 as my only experience in the matter.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">#</p>
<p>I don't have any expectations right now. I'm okay with the play-in game, and it's going to be fun to watch, but you can't really plan around a single baseball game between evenly matched teams except to say that both of them are going to try hard and one of them is going to win, eventually.</p>
<p>But whether the 2012 Cardinals' season ends today or on November 1, something's happened—last year's team has opened up on this end. Provided the 2013 Cardinals don't lose 90 games, what was actually a surprising resignation, a series of excruciating and ultimately fruitless negotiations, and a bet on veterans with bad knees being undervalued by the market is going to look like a seamless transition, with 2011 at its center. Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa go out on top, and the team is reoriented immediately toward <span>Yadier Molina</span> and <span>Matt Holliday</span> and a series of rookie pitchers who'd already begun to emerge. Voila. (John Mozeliak is going to look very smart.)</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">#</p>
<p>I don't remember the first time I heard it, but the bad-stand-up refrain about people rooting for laundry instead of human beings has always made me more nervous than it deserves. I don't <i>want</i> to root for laundry; the Cardinals are an extraordinarily successful business, not a bunch of scrappy entertainers, and they don't stand in for any particular moral virtue besides cheering conspicuously after sacrifice bunts. They don't need my emotional investment, and they wouldn't notice if it were gone. But my laundry's crawling with birds-on-bats, and I write for a laundry blog, and year after year, as the players turn over, I just so happen to root for the same set of tastefully updated jerseys.</p>
<p>So it's probably true. I'll even root for <i>different</i> laundry that they tell me is better than the old laundry. But I think it's the kind of true that happens when you stare at a thing cross-eyed enough to get some unsettling-sounding, obvious fact out of it. I root for laundry because it's the abstraction we have to stand in for all these weird transitions. It allows us to deal with these Cardinals being simultaneously a break from the last 17 years of Cardinals baseball <i>and </i>the team sent to defend its own World Series championship.</p>
<p>These Cardinals lost Albert Pujols, who was supposed to represent the same nebulous ideals they represented, and Tony La Russa, who took the idea of resurrecting a storied franchise as his jersey number, and they signed a guy who twice in three years just missed sinking them single-handedly in the postseason. They got a big season from their postseason hero, and they watched Yadier Molina play Johnny Bench for a year, and they put the ball in Chris Carpenter's hand with the playoffs on the line two months after he had a rib removed to restore feeling to his fingers.</p>
<p>I don't know whether that makes them the logical successors to the 2011 team or a harbinger of the 2014 squad, with the pitchers grown up and the veteran casts fully removed. Without the jerseys all that churn becomes hard to deal with, and most of the circles we draw around particular eras of Cardinals baseball get closed after the fact anyway. But if we zoom out far enough—whatever happens—they'll just be the Cardinals, who on a Friday in October took advantage of a brand-new rule and a season that went just-well-enough to give themselves the chance to defend a World Series championship for the first time since 1968.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/5/3459260/cardinals-vs-braves-oddsDanfiction2012-10-04T16:00:36-04:002012-10-04T16:00:36-04:00Medlen vs. Cardinals: Battle of the Grounders
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<figcaption>Daniel Shirey - Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>When the Cardinals dig in against Braves starter Kris Medlen in Friday's NL Wild Card game, the sinkerballer will be playing to an odd St. Louis strength: hitting grounders.</p> <p>On Friday, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> travel to Turner Field to face the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> in the inaugural National League Wild Card play-in game. The Braves have named youngster <span>Kris Medlen</span> as their starter in this sudden death match-up, a pitcher not many folks outside of Braves fans had heard much about before the second half of this season. Heading into the most important game of the season, let's take a look at the starting pitcher Atlanta has pinned its NLDS hopes on.</p>
<p>Medlen is a 26 year old righthander who has spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues. He has come out of the bullpen and been a starter. In 2009, he made 37 appearances for Atlanta, 33 of those as a reliever. The following season, Medlen made 14 starts and 17 relief appearances. Last year, he made two relief appearances that totaled 1 2/3 innings. Medlen started the 2012 season in the Braves bullpen and made 38 appearances in relief before being shifted to the starting rotation, where he has been dominant over 12 starts.</p>
<p>Here is a chart comparing Medlen's stats coming out of the bullpen to those as a starter over the course of his big-league career. Interestingly, his career numbers in relief are quite similar to his career numbers while starting. Medlen has been effective in both roles.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">K%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">BB%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">HR/FB</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">GB%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">LOB%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ERA</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">FIP</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">xFIP</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">RP</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">186.0</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">21.3%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">7.0%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">4.2%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">45.6%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">73.5%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.92</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.72</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3.45</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SP</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">129.3</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">22.5%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">5.0%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">11.3%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">47.7%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">79.8%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.81</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3.32</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3.18</span></p>
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<p>The reason Medlen is starting this must-win game for the Braves is not his career performance as a starter, but his 2012 performance as a member of the Atlanta rotation. Medlen was good in relief for the Braves in the first part of the season. Since moving to the rotation, he's been excellent. Here is a chart comparing his 2012 stats in relief to those in the rotation.</p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">IP</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">K%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">BB%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">HR/FB</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">GB%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">LOB%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ERA</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">FIP</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: #073763; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">xFIP</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">RP</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">54.1</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">17.1%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">6.2%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.2%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">51.6%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">76.4%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.48</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.73</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3.70</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SP</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">83.2</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">27.2%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3.2%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">8.3%</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">54.7%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">93.3%</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">0.97</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.22</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">2.50</span></p>
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<p> </p>
<p>Usually, a pitcher will see his strikeout rates fall and his walk rates rise when moving from relief to starting. For Medlen in 2012, the opposite has been true, and in dramatic fashion. Medlen has halved his walk rate since moving from the bullpen to the rotation and increased his strikeout rate by 10 percent. He has also had an incredibly high LOB% and increased his groundball rate.</p>
<p>For whatever reason, Medlen has been in a groove while starting. It's a groove that is unsustainable. The only question is when regression will hit the young righty: Will it happen on Friday, in the NLDS, or next season?</p>
<p>Medlen's 2.22 FIP over 83 2/3 innings is incredibly low and probably unsustainably so. The pitchers with<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,a"> the five lowest FIPs in MLB this season</a> are <span>Gio Gonzalez</span> (2.82), <span>Felix Hernandez</span> (2.84), <span>Clayton Kershaw</span> (2.89), <span>Justin Verlander</span> (2.94), and <span>David Price</span> (3.05). Simply put, it's unrealistic to expect Medlen to maintain a FIP that is sixty points lower than that of Gio Gonzalez.</p>
<p>By xFIP, the story is the same. There's no reason to expect Medlen's 2.50 xFIP to continue, given that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a">the five lowest xFIPs in MLB</a> are <span>Cliff Lee</span> (3.06), David Price (3.12), <span>CC Sabathia</span> (3.20), Felix Hernandez (3.20), and <span>Zack Greinke</span> (3.22). Medlen won't continue to put up an xFIP 56 points lower than the best xFIP in MLB.</p>
<p>In addition to an unsustainably great performance, some luck is afoot. The timing of Medlen's hits allowed fuels his unsustainably high LOB%. Stranding runners at a rate over 90 percent is as impressive as it is unsustainable. <span>Jeremy Hellickson</span> has the highest LOB% in the majors for 2012, and it sits at 82.73 percent. Only four starters have a LOB% of 80 or higher this season. At some point, the ducks on the pond are going to come home and cross the plate. It's just a matter of when.</p>
<p>This is not to say that Medlen is not a good pitcher. He's a very good pitcher. Medlen is just not <i>this</i> <i>great</i> a pitcher. His 2012 numbers over 12 starts are at a level similar to <span>Pedro Martinez</span> in his prime. As good as Medlen is, he's no Pedro.</p>
<p>A big reason behind Medlen's success as a starter is his repertoire. The righty relies primarily on an impressive two-seam fastball while mixing in a four-seamer, curve, and change for prime effectiveness. <a href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/450665/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=7%2F31%2F2012&to=10%2F3%2F2012">Via Texas Leaguers</a>, here's a look at how he has deployed his pitches since moving to the rotation on July 31.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">FF</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">FF%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CU</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CU%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CH</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">CH%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">506</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">46.6 %</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">148</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">13.6%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">215</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">19.8%</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">217</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">20.0%</span></p>
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<p>Not surprisingly, Medlen throws his two-seamer early in counts. He deploys it 60 percent of the time on the first pitch to a batter. Like Chris Carpenter, Medlen also relies on the groundball-inducer when behind in the count (60% vs. RHB, 58% vs. LHB). Medlen's hope is to induce the grounder, and he's adept at it. His 54.7 percent groundball rate</p>
<p>When Medlen works ahead of lefthanded batsmen, he uses his changeup a plurality of time, though he will drop a curve in there. Against righthanders, his pitch of choice when ahead in the count is two pitches: his curve and change. Medlen throws each about 20 percent of the time when ahead against righties. Both pitches are quite effective at inducing swings-and-misses, but his changeup is elite. Batters have whiffed on it 25.9 percent of the time in 2012 and 31.5 percent of the time since Medlen's move to the rotation. Medlen is adept at deploying his offspeed pitches when ahead in the count. Because of this, he has been able to notch strikeouts at a healthy rate of 27.2% as a starter, while allowing an extremely low number of walks. Even with Medlen's strikeout-inducing ability, the Cardinals vs. Medlen match-up will likely be won early in the count on sinkers.</p>
<p>As noted above, Medlen relies heavily on his sinker on the first pitch of a plate appearance and when behind in the count. Medlen throws the pitch not to generate swings-and-misses, but to generate grounders. He's be a great fit with former Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Medlen's whiff rate with the sinker is a mere 3.32 percent. When batters swing at it, they put it in play. Because of this, he has a high groundball rate. This is something that is typically good for a pitcher. Against the Cards, however, a grounder has not been nearly as positive an outcome as against the league as a whole.</p>
<p>In early September, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cardinals-reaching-new-heights-from-ground/">Jeff Sullivan wrote about this phenomenon at Fangraphs</a>. St. Louis was head and shoulders above the league average as well as second place in batting average on groundballs. As the season has come to a close, the Cards continue to be uncannily effective on grounders.</p>
<p>On grounders in 2012, the NL hit for a .239 average. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=STL&year=2012#traj">The Cardinals hit for a .278 average on grounders</a> for the season. This average on groundballs is a full 39 points above the NL as a whole. As Sullivan demonstrates in his post, there is nothing glaringly out of whack about the classifications for Cards hitters. The club has simply hit for an extremely high average on grounders this season. Here is a chart comparing the batting averages on groundballs of Friday's likely Cardinals starters to the NL average on grounders.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Cardinals Player</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">BA on GB</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #ffffff; background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+/- NL Avg.</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Jon Jay</span></span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.310</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .071</span></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Carlos Beltran</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.236</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #cc0000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">- .003</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Matt Holliday</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.338</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .099</span></p>
</td>
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<tr style="height: 0px;">
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Allen Craig</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.259</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .020</span></p>
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<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Yadier Molina</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.269</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .030</span></p>
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<tr style="height: 0px;">
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>David Freese</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.317</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .078</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;">
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span>Daniel Descalso</span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.218</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #cc0000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">- .021</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 0px;">
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Pete Kozma</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #000000; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.304</span></p>
</td>
<td style="vertical-align: top; padding: 7px; border: 1px solid #000000;">
<p style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 0pt;" dir="ltr"><span style="font-size: 12px; font-family: Arial; color: #38761d; background-color: transparent; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">+ .065</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</b></div>
<p> </p>
<p>The Cards' success on grounders is uncanny. We probably shouldn't expect it to continue at this level, just as we shouldn't expect Medlen's performance to continue at a late-1990s Pedro level. That Medlen's bread-and-butter pitch is a groundball-inducing sinker and the Cardinals have fared so well on the grounder in 2012 makes for an intriguing Wild Card face-off on Friday. It will be a battle of the grounder. Somewhere Dave Duncan is smiling.</p>
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/10/4/3454572/kris-medlen-vs-the-st-louis-cardinals-battle-of-the-grounderBen Humphrey