Future Redbirds Top 25 Prospects for 2015: #1 - Alex Reyes

Acquired: IFA (2012), Dominican Republic; $850,000 bonus

Birthday: 8/29/1994

Age: 20

Minor League Stops in 2014: Peoria (A)

2014 Totals:

F-R Grades:

(You can find the 20/80 grading primer here)

There's just a ton to like about Alex Reyes, summed up really well by Kiley McDaniel over at Fangraphs:

He checks all the boxes as a young power arm, with a projectable 6-foot-3/185 frame, a solid delivery, and easy plus fastball that sits 92-95 and hits 97 mph along with a curveball that flashes plus in nearly every outing. Reyes is still learning the finer points of his craft, with his command and consistency of his off-speed stuff varying start-to-start.

Up to this point, Reyes is nearly the carbon copy of Shelby Miller at this age: Big, dominant fastball, repeatable delivery, and fringe/average secondary stuff.  The difference between the two is that Reyes' curveball flashes plus consistently in starts and there are times where he has full command of everything and looks like a world beater. He's not as consistent with spotting the fastball as Miller was at this stage of his career, which makes him a bit more like Carlos Martinez, albeit with Shelby Miller's frame.

Certainly, this ranking is an upside one, as Reyes has just one full season under his belt in the minors, but he's likely to be at least a #3 starter with a bit more seasoning, with the raw materials that could make him a future ace if everything breaks in the right direction. That's more than you can say for most any other player in the Cardinals farm system at present, with the possible exception of Randal Grichuk who is considerably older and hasn't improved much on his considerable flaws at the plate in either of the last two years.

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A few notes on the video:

• You can see a very good changeup that gets a swing and miss right around the 30 second mark as well as good fastball command.
• The inconsistency with his breaking ball is on display starting at about 1:10. One gets away that goes over the batter's head, then another than hangs up over the inside of the plate.  Then he throws a good, hard one with solid depth to get the strikeout and end the inning.  Throughout the video you can see him fighting with his curveball, losing a few, casting a few, then finding his release point and throwing a hammer for a strike or a swing and miss.
• Reyes is tinkering with the start to his windup a little bit as well. He starts out with a short step in the early innings that works into a longer stride toward the side of the mound later on as he gets more comfortable.
• He struck out 10 and walked 7 in this start, belying the inconsistency that he had for much of the season last year.

VEB: Which secondary offering (breaking ball or changeup) do you feel is more effective for you?

AR: As the season progressed, I feel my changeup was more effective, and it helped me get hitters off my fastball. It also helped me get down in the zone with my fastball.

Editor’s note: When asked further about his second-half improvement last season (strikeouts went up, walks went down, and ERA plummeted), this is what he pointed to as the main reason. He stated that Simontacchi helped him "a ton" with his changeup which not only gave him another effective pitch in his arsenal but that it also led to the ability to harness his electric fastball down in the zone.

That leads me to believe that there's a lot of good things ahead for Alex Reyes and that he's going to put the time an effort into making improvements.

2015 Outlook:

Reyes started with Palm Beach, and has looked his dominant self thus far in 20.1 innings this season. As I said on the VEB Prospect Roundtable podcast, I don't think we'll know much more about Alex until we see him against better hitters in AA. The continued struggles with walks are still a concern though, especially since he looked to have ironed out some of those issues at the end of 2014.

Overall Grade: B+