What Do the Cardinals Need? (A Season in Three Parts: Part 2)

Good morning, Viva El Birdos!

Happy baseball dead day. There are no games to hold our attention either today or tomorrow. I could say the same thing about Tuesday when the All-Star Game happened without any Cardinals. It’s been a boring break for fans, but at least the club got some rest after a string of doubleheaders. They should be able to enter the second half of the baseball season – not an easy one for the Redbirds – at near full strength.

The next date circled on our MLB calendars is the trade deadline. With the Cardinals within striking distance in the NL Central and still holding on to a Wild Card playoff spot, they should view themselves as buyers.

With that in mind, it’s time to return to our “A Season in Three Parts” series.

The “three parts” views a 162-game baseball season in terms of thirds. Not by dates and games played but by goals and objectives. I’ve chosen to express each of those thirds of a season in terms of a guiding question; a mindset or goal that the organization – the players, manager/coaches, and front office – are trying to consider during each section of play.

First third: What do we have?

Second third: What do we need?

Final third: What can we do?

We talked extensively about the “what do we have” question in the first installment of this series. You can find that right here. The goal of that post was to evaluate the talent available to the Cardinals on the MLB roster, the 40-man roster, and the MLB-ready prospects.

We identified areas of strength, areas where the club was at least solid, and problem areas that the team would likely have to address either through redeployment of resources or through outside acquisitions. I.e. “What do we need?”

A month has passed since that first evaluation. It’s worth it to look back at the areas of concern again to see if time has changed those situations and to consider areas that were listed as strength/solid to make sure no new problems have arisen.

Ongoing Areas of Concern

CF – Center field was the largest problem evident on the club back in mid-June. Is it still? Siani’s defensive play has not let up. His offense has gotten marginally better. Edman is out on an extended rehab assignment right now and could be back by the trade deadline. Until he returns and hits like he has in the past, I’m simply not comfortable moving center out of the “concern” category even if I don’t propose that the Cardinals do anything external to fix the problem. More on that below.

RF – At the time, right field was also an area of concern, mostly because of the fallout from center. Nootbaar was on the IL. Burleson was getting some time out in right, but his defense was not showing marked improvement from 2023. That’s remained true. Walker was still not hitting in Memphis. A month has helped the situation. A little. Noot is back and has shifted to right. Donovan sees lots of time in left. Burleson keeps hitting. Health and performance has probably removed RF from our list, as we hoped it would.

Bench – The bench was also a problem, mostly because injuries to Herrera, Noot, Edman, and Contreras caused a trickle-down effect on bench talent. Several of those players are back. Still, the bench has problem areas and a lack of versatility from certain veterans. This is a problem the team should try to address internally before the deadline.

5^th Starter – Matz’s injury and subsequent setback have only further clouded the 5^th starter picture. Pallante has been solid and Liberatore is a good enough spot starter. None of these players, though, improve the Cardinals’ chances of making the playoffs. This remains an area of concern and the most likely to receive an outside fix.

40-Man & MLB-Ready Prospects – I listed both of those areas as problems for the team. They remain as such, though at this point in the season, the problem with both areas rests more on the limitations they impose on the team’s efforts to make trades at the deadline. The Cardinals don’t have a lot of MLB-ready from which to deal. It’s a good thing that deadline trades usually involve A and AA players.

Any Areas Listed as Strength/Solid That Are Now Areas of Concern? No, not really. I remain a bit concerned about Paul Goldschmidt but the Cardinals don’t need to look beyond their roster to improve production at 1b.

What Do the Cardinals Need?

With those realities established, let’s take an in-depth look at the second question: What do the Cardinals need?

We’ll consider this in two ways.

1) Outside additions: I have one area that I think the team needs to address through an outside addition – starter. I’ll present a few trade options that I think the club might be able to pursue.

2) Re-deployment of current assets: I’ve alluded to some of these above. The Cardinals can improve some roster situations by using their talent in different ways. We’ll try to construct a more productive player deployment strategy that the Cardinals can implement over the next few months to improve their wining potential.

Let’s start with outside additions to the rotation.

Outside Additions: Starter

What kind of starter do the Cardinals need? Pallante has been solid as a fill-in for Matz. He has 41.1 innings as a starter on the season with a 3.70 ERA and a 3.89 FIP. He’s accomplished that with just a 20.7% K rate and 8.3% BB rate. He’s averaging just over 5 innings a start. Those aren’t stats that scream “replace me,” but they are also not stats that say “trust me for a playoff run.”

Barring another injury to the rotation, the Cardinals can get by with some combination of Pallante, Liberatore, and Matz for the stretch run. However, those players don’t improve their chances of winning the division or a long playoff series. That’s what I’m looking to do.

As such, the front office doesn’t need to find any old arm. They shouldn’t bother with this year’s version of J.A. Happ or Jon Lester. They should aim a little higher than that. Something more along the lines of the Quintana or Montgomery deals.

I looked through all of the starters on all of the teams either out of contention or on the edge. That probably provides a complete sample, though there might be the odd starter from a contender that becomes unexpectedly available. Here’s the list of possible trade targets:

A Toronto Starter – If you’re looking for a “most likely” scenario, here you are. The Blue Jays are well out of the AL East race. They have three starters that I think fit the kind of talent the Cardinals need: Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kevin Gausman. Bassitt is your prototypical #3 caliber starter. He is in the midst of a 2.0 fWAR season and is under contract through ’25. He’s 35. He screams Cardinal. Kikuchi comes with a little more K upside and just as much production. He’s younger – 33 – and will be a free agent after the season. He would slide in nicely behind Gray in the rotation and I would be very interested in the Cardinals getting him with the hope of extending him. A Gausman acquisition would not be nearly as clean, since he’s a 33-year-old starter who won’t be a free agent until 2027. The Cardinals would have to buy 2 1/3 seasons of control. But they would get a pitcher who had three straight fWAR seasons of 4.8 or higher entering this season. He’s not been that good this season and has experienced a drop in velocity and Ks. He would be risky but the trade cost would need to reflect the risk. In the end, I doubt Toronto will trade him.

Max Scherzer – Scherzer was out for most of the first half. He has just 5 starts and 27 innings. He’s still working his way back into full shape, but the quality is already evident. He has a 2.96 ERA and a 4.30 FIP in those few starts with a miniscule walk rate and improving K’s. He’ll also be a free agent after the season and the Rangers are currently 5 games out in the AL West and worse than that in the Wild Card. Scherzer recently indicated that he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause, but he couched that with the expectation that the Rangers would climb back into contention. If they don’t? He could change his mind. Or not. We’ll have to see, but Scherzer is a perfect fit for what the Cardinals need.

Erick Fedde – The White Sox pulled Fedde back to the states from the KBO and he’s been very good. He has 111 innings in 19 starts with a 2.99/3.53 ERA/FIP. He looks like a #2 capable starter with a #5 kind of salary. But he only has half a season of that level of production in his career. How much will he cost? I would expect the price to be high but not as high as a comparable talent with proven experience. Regardless, it’s a cost the Cardinals should willingly pay, considering Fedde’s production level and salary both this year and next. Trading for him now gives them a quality #2 and locks in production security for next season, where they are almost certainly going to have to bring in 1-2 external starters. This is the kind of move the Cardinals should make but will probably miss out on because of a lack of tradable prospects.

Jack Flaherty – I said a few times last year that ’23 was going to be a “get right” year for Flaherty who, for a variety of reasons, hadn’t thrown a full-time starter’s regiment since 2019. 2024 would reveal the real Flaherty - whatever that was now. It has. And it’s been all good. Jack has a 3.13/3.17 ERA/FIP and 2.1 fWAR. He’ll be a hot commodity on the trade market if the Tigers decide to part with him. They might not. I could see them hanging on to him and trying to extend him to pair with Skubal for a future run. If he does hit the market, the Cardinals should try to snag him. He’ll be costly, though, and having seen the worst of Flaherty during his last few years in StL, I suspect they’ll just stay away.

Jordan Montgomery – Montgomery is a challenging acquisition for the Cardinals for three reasons. The first is that he’s injured. Monty is on the IL recovering from knee inflammation but the D-Backs expect him back sometime soon. The second is that the snakes are on the verge of contention and need Montgomery right if they’re going to make a second-half surge. Third, Montgomery has not been good when healthy. He has a 6.44 ERA, a 4.43 FIP, and has had a notable drop in fastball velocity this season. So, why is he even on this list? Because the Cardinals have seen what Montgomery can do when he’s healthy. If they believe he’s healthy and if he can show he’s recovered some of his form either in rehab starts or a few appearances in Arizona, the Cardinals might be willing to take a chance on him and hope that they can parlay that into an extension for 2025.

Blake Snell – Snell is a very interesting case as a trade target. (And because of that incredibly unlikely.) Snell has a two-year deal worth $62M with a player-induced opt-out following the 2024 season. If he doesn’t opt out, the Giants will pay him $38.5M in ’25 but a chunk of that is deferred until 2027. The Giants are just far enough out of playoff contention that they might be willing to sell if things don’t go well over the next few weeks. If they find themselves in that position, they might be motivated to get out from under Snell’s deal. Would the Cardinals be willing to that on that risk? For a pitcher with a Cy Young past but a very volatile present? I think they would, but only if the Giants were willing to eat some of the deferred cash if Snell doesn’t opt out. Something the Giants might do if it meant better prospects. Notice all the ifs and mights. This is the kind of complicated trade arrangement the Cardinals have made work in the past (see Arenado) but it would be very difficult to pull off during the tight window of the trade deadline. And the Giants aren’t the Rockies. Still, it’s theoretically possible. And Snell fits the kind of pitcher I would be interested in. This one is listed last for a reason.

Other options: Tyler Anderson, Paul Blackburn

I feel pretty confident that the Cardinals should be able to get one of those deals done, and there are a few more that I could have listed but were either too unlikely or not interesting enough. One of the Toronto starters seems most likely and the Cards have worked well with the Jays in the past. If they do make one of these moves, I’m not sure what else they would have in the tank for additional moves. This is likely a one-and-done trade deadline.

Re-Deployment of Current Assets

With only one item on their shopping list, any additional improvements are going to have to come from re-deploying their current assets. I have a few areas where I think the club could do that, some of which Oli has already shown a willingness to implement.

Here are my suggestions:

1. More Alec Burleson at 1b – July has been Paul Goldschmidt’s best month so far with a 100 wRC+. That’s still way below his expected norms. The Cardinals should continue giving him plenty of playing time. Burleson, meanwhile, has proven he’s one of the team’s best hitters. They need his bat in the lineup every day. With a 4^th percentile OAA (mostly due to poor range), that shouldn’t come in RF everyday. It won’t work this cleanly, but in a 10-game cycle, I would give Goldy 2 days off in 10 (1 at DH) and Burly something like 6 at DH, 2 in the OF, and 2 at 1b.

2. More Willson Contreras as C – With the Cardinals committing to Pages as the backup catcher, they should also commit to a traditional catcher playing time division. Contreras only has 31 C starts on the season. There are 66 games left. With fresh legs following his injury, I would let Contreras catch 44 of those games. That’s a 2/3rds ratio; a ratio that he hasn’t started since 2021, but he can handle it over a relatively short run. Half of the remaining 22 games should see him at DH. That arrangement fits the deployment of Burly and Goldy I suggest above. In 10 games, Burly gets 6 at DH, Contreras gets 2, Goldy gets 1, and the bench gets 1. It won’t be that clean, but you can see the concept.

3. More Lars Nootbaar at CF – Nootbaar is not a center fielder but he’s perfectly adequate as a fill-in player out there. In almost 700 innings he has a +2 OAA. He’s started in center in 3 of the 7 games he’s played in since his return. That’s probably a little more aggressive than I would want but it’s mostly driven by the double headers. I would like to see Noot in center about 33% of the time until Edman returns. Then we’ll see. Siani just shouldn’t be in the lineup against lefties at all and I would rather give Noot as much experience in CF as possible. He is likely to start a decent number of games in CF over the next few seasons.

4. Release Crawford and use Edman as the UT – I wrote about this on Saturday, so you can find the details there. Edman will return by the end of the month but he does not have to return as a CF’er, a position that he hasn’t played that much. Siani probably doesn’t hit that much worse than Edman will, considering his wrist injury, and is almost certainly a better defender. If the club cuts ties with Crawford and uses Edman as the UT, with routine starts at 2b, SS, 3b, and CF, the club would significantly improve its versatility. If Edman hits well right away, adjust from there.

Part 3 Preview: What Can The Cardinals Do?

We’ll get to part three of this series after the deadline. As of today, this team is worth investing in. The Cardinals have the capacity of a mid-tier playoff team. They’re not as good as the Dodgers, Philly, or the Braves. They can hold their own against the Brewers and the other Wild Card team.

This is a team that will have a chance in the postseason, especially with the right kind of addition. They don’t have to do anything at the deadline. Not with Pallante performing well enough as a fifth starter and Matz probably returning at some point.

Acquiring a starter is not mandatory. Instead, the deadline is an opportunity to position themselves as a legitimate postseason challenger.

They can, with some cost, solidify their starting rotation, which by extension, improves their bullpen. A pitcher like Kikuchi, Bassitt, Scherzer, or Fedde would make a notable difference down the stretch. But the true impact of such an arm would be felt in the postseason, where the Cardinals could push Gibson to a game 3 and maybe even have Lynn available out of the bullpen. That’s a team that could do serious damage in a short playoff series.

What can the Cardinals do? They have the opportunity to win. If they will take it.

I expect them to. They understand the financial ramifications of a long postseason run as well as anyone. They know what impact playoff success has on their TV audience and ticket sales. The club did not invest in their roster to the fullest extent of their budget during the offseason. This is their opportunity to make up some ground.