Trap is the word in a 3-game series against the Cincinatti Reds

This is what I would call a danger series. Which is another way of saying this feels very much like a trap series. The Cardinals are running high, with a 5-game winning streak, having swept a very good Baltimore Orioles team and what you could probably call the presumptive favorite to win the NL Central. (Maybe not now) And now they’re facing the last place team in the Central. Naturally you think, team running high facing a last place team, should be able to keep that up.

Well, I have stressed this point before, but baseball is all about matchups and the matchups in this series are... not ideal. The Cardinals don’t have the favored pitcher in any of the three matchups. Their 7-8-9 inning arms are also not likely to be available in two of the three games. Why do I say two of the three? Well I can’t imagine they’re available tomorrow, and if they pitch Tuesday, they can’t pitch Wednesday (4 games pitched out of 5 is typically a no go). Also, the Reds just swept the Dodgers.

But well, they entered the Cubs series in not much better of a situation (although they had the clear favorite in the Gray vs Assad matchup) and then ended up winning two games out of two. Granted, the rain delay changed that drastically, giving the Cardinals a toss-up and a clear favorite, but still. When a team is rolling, they can do things like sweep the Orioles.

Also, this is not a good Reds offense. Great American Ballpark gonna Great American Ballpark, but they have an 85 wRC+ on the season. If you think the Cards’ offense has been bad this year, it’s the difference between how Brendan Donovan has done versus Paul Goldschmidt. Which is a comparison that I can only make because Goldy hit two homers yesterday.

The Reds offense has some serious dead weight on its roster. They must not have better options because they are giving a LOT of plate appearances to this dead weight. Way back in 2011, the Cardinals drafted 7th rounder Nick Martini, who has been allowed to come to the plate 102 times and has rewarded the Reds with a 2.7 BB%, 27.5 K%, and 51 wRC+. Mike Ford has taken 61 plate appearances and has a 10 wRC+. Santiago Espinal has a 47 wRC+ in 134 plate appearances. Jeimer Candelario has been replacement level in 45 games. Will Benson has struck out almost 40% of the time for his 91 wRC+. Jonathan India has been healthy, but has been replacement level nearly 200 PAs into the season.

It’s not all bad. Elly de la Cruz has a 124 wRC+ with 31 stolen bases and positive defense at SS. Spencer Steer has a 114 wRC+. Their leadoff hitter is someone named Jacob Hurtubise, a random 26-year-old outfielder with 12 career games. I mean him leading off really says it all doesn’t it?

The Reds’ formerly dominant closer and brother of Edwin, Alexis Diaz, has been... quite bad. He’s walking 15% of batters and only striking out 24%. He actually walked a lot of batters last year too, but you get away with it more when you strike out 30% of batters. He is what he is: an unhittable pitcher when he has control which is less often than the Reds would like. Fernando Cruz has one of the more impressive - and weirder stat lines. He has struck out 45% of batters he’s faced! And somehow has a 4.37 ERA. You can bet the advanced stats think that’s unlucky! (1.63 FIP)

Lucas Sims has been bad. Buck Farmer has a really shiny ERA (2.19), but don’t look under the hood for those numbers (4.25 xERA, 4.76 xFIP, 3.98 FIP). Sam Moll really has been the weak contact god, although who knows how sustainable that is long-term (2.56 xERA, 4.90 xFIP). Brent Suter has been Brent Suter. It’s actually impressive that besides Fernando Cruz, every one of these guys has at the very least a not very good xFIP, which is especially discouraging for them because of how easy it is to hit homers in their park. This is not a good bullpen unless you face Cruz.

Monday - 3:10 PM

Lance Lynn (3.68 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.26 xFIP) vs. Nick Lodolo (3.34 ERA/2.90 FIP/3.12 xFIP)

If Lynn escapes Great American Ballpark without getting bombarded by homers, I think I’ll retire any comments referring to him allowing homers. He has an essentially average HR rate and he’s not really getting lucky to have that HR rate either. That said, even the most homer-suppressing pitcher can have trouble keeping the ball in this particular park, so it’ll be a challenge regardless.

Lodolo is legit good and will be a menace to face. He’s made just six starts this year, but has stuck out 10 and 11 batters in two of those starts. For his career, he’s always had strong K/BB numbers, but for whatever reason, whenever batters do make contact, it’s been a problem. Career .335 BABIP against and 16.7 HR/FB%. But he may have turned a corner this year.

Tuesday - 5:40 PM

Kyle Gibson (3.81 ERA/4.38 FIP/4.25 xFIP) vs. Andrew Abbott (2.68 ERA/4.51 FIP/4.47 xFIP)

I was slightly misleading when I said the Cardinals don’t have the better pitching matchup in any of these three games. While I would still say that’s technically true, I don’t really believe in Abbott and consider this matchup a wash. He has apparently genuinely generated weak contact given his 2.72 xERA, but I don’t really believe you can say that’s a skill of his in 10 starts. He is only striking out 18.8% of batters and no other advanced stat has him as a good pitcher.

Gibson will probably do what Gibson does, which is pitch a solid, if unspectacular, game that will require at least a little offense, something that should be achievable against Abbott and this bullpen.

Wednesday - 12:10 PM

Matthew Liberatore? (5.40 ERA/4.33 FIP/4.14 xFIP) vs. Frankie Montas (4.61 ERA/5.05 FIP/5.02 xFIP)

Again refer to my misleading statement. It’s not actually clear Liberatore is the one starting this game, but whether it’s him, Andre Pallante, or a bonafide bullpen game, it’s certainly not ideal. However, when the opponent has pitched as badly as Montas has, you feel like the Cards have a good chance to win anyway.

Also, did anybody else not realize Liberatore hasn’t actually been that bad starting? He’s actually had a very strange season. He started the year in the bullpen, got okay results (3.78 ERA), but wasn’t pitching well (16.9 K%, 12.3 BB%, 4.52 xFIP). As a starter, he has gotten horrible results (8.10 ERA), but has done a lot of things you would typically associate with good pitching (20 K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.50 xFIP). Does anybody else find that incredibly strange?

I still think this is a dangerous series, but writing this preview makes me feel better about the Cardinals winning the series than it did when I initially looked at the pitching matchups.