Outfield talk

I find where the state of the outfield is within the Cardinals’ organization to be kind of fascinating. In Out of the Park Baseball, one of the easiest class of players to find is a semi-interesting outfield prospect and damn if the Cardinals don’t make that seem incredibly true. I can’t remember a time when they didn’t have at least three starters on the MLB squad, and a multitude of semi-proven or unproven prospects relatively close behind. Half the reason we hear about former Cards succeeding elsewhere is because the Cardinals have had “too many” outfield prospects.

Despite the start of the year and injuries, that’s still true. Lars Nootbaar is projected to have another 3 WAR season even with the missed time, Michael Siani’s defense would seem to be able to carry his offense enough to be league average, Alec Burleson is finally seeing his stats match his expected metrics, and if Brendan Donovan can match what he has done in his career offensively, he plays a good enough LF to put him there.

Here’s where things get interesting for me. Two players will probably enter the conversation at some point. Tommy Edman, currently on the injured list, is a part of the outfield plan. And Jordan Walker, currently in AAA, is also a part of the outfield plan. I presume the Cardinals plan to call up Walker and they don’t really even have a choice with Edman, he will likely cross 5 years of service time when he’s ready to be activated.

*And yes I know some of you are going to say Edman is an infielder, but the fact is that he was a +5 OAA in just 310 innings last year and also Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman are in the way. And between Donovan and Edman, if the decision comes to it, you want Donovan at 2B and Edman in CF. Edman in the infield is not really feasible in the Cardinals’ current state in my opinion. But I come from a position of buying into Edman as at least a borderline elite defender.

I haven’t even mentioned Dylan Carlson by the way. Or Victor Scott, who I think is safely out of the MLB conversation for 2024, or at least should be. He has a 47 wRC+ in AAA, mostly because of a .206 BABIP, because his plate discipline numbers are actually good. With Siani emerging as the defensive force that he is, Scott doesn’t really provide anything the Cardinals don’t have at this current stage of his development.

A lot of people on this site kind of assumed or at least hoped Alec Burleson was going to get sent down once Tommy Edman returned. I mean when we all thought Edman might return in April, I am not speaking about recently. It doesn’t seem likely Burleson is going to be that guy. We know Nootbaar is not going to be that guy. We know Brendan Donovan is not going to be that guy.

We are kind of running out of options here. Things can change fast, so when I talk about baseball I am always talking about right now. In all likelihood, because baseball, none of this is actually going to present a problem. I am not in fact presenting this as a problem, I just find the potential of this situation to be entirely fascinating.

Because we’re left with a few possible situations, all of which are kind of hard to imagine the Cardinals actually doing. Michael Siani is playing everyday. Not only is he playing everyday, his defense has been so good that he’s been worth 0.7 fWAR in 101 PAs. That’s not a guy you send to the minors. Nothing about how the Cardinals are using Siani suggests he will be sent down.

But, well, it’s pretty much him or Jordan Walker never gets called back up. The Cardinals are in a situation where Walker pretty much has to force his way onto the roster. He is certainly not doing that at the moment. He has not hit a homer in AAA yet. The Cardinals are definitely promoting Walker again this year. But who you swapping him for?

As I said, these are future potential problems and future potential problems tend to resolve themselves, I just find it interesting.

Dylan Carlson

Man. Poor Dylan Carlson. Once again, an injury seems to deplete him and he gets pushed into a bench role that I can’t see him getting out of. Who is he taking playing time away from? He is - in my opinion - a below average defensive CF and so long as Siani hits even a lick, Siani has that job. He’s not taking playing time away from Nootbaar. He’s not taking playing time away from Donovan. In theory, I can see Burleson, but Oliver Marmol has pretty consistently preferred Burleson over Carlson (it’s at least justified this year).

I also don’t see a way where he isn’t the one getting sent down if they need push an outfielder out. I have no idea why they rushed his rehab process. Like I am actually confused as to how he even had a 167 wRC+ in 4 games in AAA, like he’s looked like that easy of an out.

Really would have liked to see how his season would have played out without that injury.

Nathan Church

Let’s talk about Nathan Church. You see Nathan Church suddenly has power. Why this matters is because no power was literally the only downside of his game. It was, to be fair, an enormous downside, like unplayable at the MLB level downside. It speaks to the rest of his game that, despite having no power at all, he was still an above average hitter in High A.

Playing in Springfield helps, but it doesn’t make up the difference between what he was doing and what he’s done so far. Nathan Church has doubled his home run total for his professional career. In about a fourth of the plate appearances. Granted, he did not set a high bar for himself, with just three homers prior to this season. But he has six already.

Prior to yesterday’s games (which was a doubleheader; he went 2-7 with a homer), Church had a .154 ISO, so it’s higher today. It’s probably at least double what his ISO was at Peoria. Again you have to give it the Springfield boost, but Springfield does not double your power. So something here has actually improved.

The thing you should know about Church is that he never strikes out. Or at least the 2024 version of never strikes out. He has a 9.5 K% for in 179 plate appearances for Springfield. Sounds like a hot streak, except he was at a 11.6% last year and 12.6% in Low A ball. This dude doesn’t strike out. And unlike most players who don’t strike out to this extent, he walks too. Not yesterday, but he had an 8.9 BB% last year and 8.1 BB% in Low A. This year, it’s just 7.3%.

Basically, he seems to have not really sacrificed his game and gained more power. Usually it’s “I have to accept a few more strikeouts for more power.” Does not seem to be the case for him yet.