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Hey friends! Happy Saturday!
We are still over a week from the trade deadline but it seems likely that the action could start happening any day now.
I guess, technically, it already has. On Friday, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for DFA’ed Cards’ reliever Genesis Cabrera in exchange for a 19-year-old catcher, Sammy Hernandez. It is the first of what could be a slew of moves for the Cardinals.
Or not.
Because that’s sometimes how things go. Even when the Cardinals intend to do something – and they do intend to make deals over the next week and a half – they aren’t always able to do so. Other teams have their own set of priorities, desires, and assets. Too often what one team can sell and wants in return does not match with what another team wants to buy and is willing to part with.
The Cardinals have tradable assets. A whole slew of them. What they want is talent in return that can help them win next season. Despite having a variety of pieces available to move, they will likely be fairly picky about what they get back.
That could lead to fewer trades than we expect.
We’ll save all that commentary for another post. For now, though, I want to remove a lot of that posturing and balancing from the trade deadline equation and just play a community game: “Would or Would Not: Trade Deadline Edition”.
Here’s how the game works. I’ll list a player and a poll. You assume that the Cardinals can get some kind of reasonably equal value at a position of need in return for the listed player. You then decide if you would or would not trade the listed player or the equal value return.
The key is the “equal value” part. Don’t worry about the details of the return. Don’t say “I would trade Carlson but only if it’s a cost-controlled starter in return” or “I would move Edman only if they keep Donovan”. Set all that aside for now.
What that means – and what should make this interesting – is that your evaluation of a player is what will define the return for that player. If you say, “I think Matthew Liberatore sucks and seems destined for the bullpen”, then you can’t turn around and say, “But I would trade him because I think I can get an All-Star outfielder for him!” Maybe some fool GM would do that, but this game assumes everyone is just as smart as you. If you want to trade Matthew Liberatore, future swing arm, then you have to assume that you’re going to get roughly the equivalent of a swing arm in return. That player could be a platoon infielder or a defense-first catcher who could start half the time. The what here doesn’t matter. It’s the value you assign that makes your decision.
So, a simple question for a simple game: Would you or would you not trade this player if you were offered a fair and useful deal?
You can, of course, make your arguments about why you would or would not trade a player and add commentary about specific details in the comments. That’s where you can go as deep and as nuanced as you want!
Sounds like fun? Sorta? Not really? Let’s play anyway! I picked players that are either likely to be traded or could be considered for trade and then organized them by contract status. I ignored some of the more insignificant players that will only take up space in the article and nothing more. Off we go!
Pending Free Agents
Poll
Jordan Montgomery
Poll
Jack Flaherty
Poll
Jordan Hicks
Commentary: I would trade everyone on this list. Without question. In fact, I’m going to be a little disappointed if any of them are still Cardinals on August 1. I know the Cardinals will still want to get innings and compete as well as they can. Subtracting three pitchers from their roster will make that challenging. However, two months of innings from Hicks is not worth letting him walk for nothing. Montgomery and Flaherty would at least bring the possibility of a qualifying offer, but that’s not going to help the team for years. Move them all! The team can keep Chris Stratton and Drew VerHagen if they want to cover some innings. Both are pending free agents but neither will bring any notable return. (Which is why they don’t have a poll.)
Veterans Under Contract/Control
Poll
Paul Goldschmidt (FA in ’25)
Poll
Paul DeJong (2 option years)
Poll
Gio Gallegos (‘25 option)
Poll
Nolan Arenado (FA in ‘28)
Poll
Willson Contreras (FA in ’28)
Commentary: This one is tougher. I would definitely not trade Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Those two are future Hall of Famers and that plaque and cap, plus the decades of publicity and good vibes that come with them, mean more to this team than their current trade value based on their current contracts. I don’t think that Contreras is tradable, so you might as well keep him around. Gallegos? I would keep him. He’s under contract and could still help them win next season. He wouldn’t bring a ton in trade anyway. DeJong, though, has recouped his value some this season but has no place on the team going forward, despite his option years. They should get what they can from him while they can and see what Masyn Winn can learn in the next two months to get ready for a starter’s role in ’24.
Arbitration Eligibles
Poll
Tyler O’Neill (FA in ’25)
Poll
Tommy Edman (FA in ’26)
Poll
Andrew Knizner (FA in ’26)
Commentary: While no one on this list needs to be traded at the deadline, I would strongly consider moving each player. If an injured Harrison Bader brought back Jordan Montgomery in a trade, then you have to think that Tyler O’Neill could net them a player who would be useful down the stretch now and next season. Tommy Edman, meanwhile, should have real value. Someone out there can use a 2-4 fWAR shortstop with Gold Glove potential and good speed. They could get a good arm for him. Knizner? I would prefer to trade him than non-tender him, which I think the Cardinals will do anyway. I think only Tyler O’Neill has a real shot to be moved at the deadline.
Pre-Arbitration Players
Poll
Dylan Carlson (FA in ’27)
Poll
Lars Nootbaar (FA in ’28)
Poll
Brendan Donovan (FA in ’29)
Poll
Nolan Gorman (FA in ’29)
Poll
Ivan Herrera (FA in ’29+)
Poll
Matthew Liberatore (FA in ’29+)
Poll
Jordan Walker (FA in ‘29+)
Commentary: I would consider trading everyone on this list in the right deal. But not necessarily in an even-value deal. I would also be perfectly happy if everyone on this list stuck around. Let’s start with the players that I simply WOULD NOT trade in a fair deal. Nootbaar is a definite no; I like him as the full-time CF’er next season. So is Walker. I don’t think I would trade Herrera. I think he’ll start more than 50% of the games at C next season and will be an asset at the league minimum.
The WOULDs start with Carlson. I feel like the club has been shopping him for a while; they might already have something lined out for him now or in the offseason. Some teams will value his skillset in center and he should net a nice return. And, in case you’re wondering, my preference would be to trade both Carlson AND O’Neill. And I would be ok if they did both deals next week.
I would trade Donovan. He’s 26 and likely tapped out his development. Very useful player, but that just means he has trade value.
One final WOULD NOT. I had to think about this one. I would not trade Nolan Gorman. Because of his progress at 2b, I would hang on to him even though he probably has as much trade value as anyone on this list except Jordan Walker. He could bring a very good return, and the Cardinals need “very good returns” at the deadline and during the offseason. But they also need young players who have All-Star caliber upside. Gorman has that. Keep that around for at least one more year. Then re-evaluate if he doesn’t take another step forward.
Tell me where I’m wrong in the comments! Expand on your votes! And, most of all, enjoy your weekend, Viva El Birdos!
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