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The 2023 Off-Season - An early look at changes that might occur



Let’s look at the issues, weaknesses and strategies to address before Pitchers and Catchers Report

Let’s try to think along with management and figure out how to adjust this team to allow it to take the next step. I try to follow their normal tendencies, so you won’t see me really going down the big FA contract rabbit hole. It’s not their speed. I dream on Trea Turner at SS as much as anyone and the Juan Soto hype was titillating, but that is not what they do.

That said, let’s begin. What do the Cardinal’s need?

Offensively, relative to the rest of the league, they moved up this year. In 2022, this became a top-5 offense partially because of improvement (less so) and partially because the rest of the league regressed (more so). In most of the major offensive categories, the Cardinals ranked between 3rd and 5th best in the NL. In 2021, they were more 7th-9th best offensively. Unfortunately, much of this improvement was achieved against LH pitching. Against RH pitching, the Cardinals were generally 10-12th ranked in MLB in most major offense categories, whereas they were the best offense against LH pitching (.806 OPS) as compared to an OPS of .726 versus RH pitching. That is a stark difference. Without getting into position-by-position analysis, this is the #1 area of improvement needed for the Birds on the Bat … improving OPS versus RH pitching. Significantly (as in at least to the .750 range).

In the pitching arena, if you go with FIP and xFIP, the Cardinals were pretty much middle of the pack in 2022, with a 16th best FIP of 3.94 (xFIP was close at 4.06). This was a slight improvement over 18th best in 2021 with FIP of 4.30. This tells me almost all the improvement in FIP for 4.30 to 3.94 was due to league-wide offensive regression, not anything the Cardinals did with talent changes. One might note that the Cardinals improved from 30th (worst, 2021) to 25th in 2022 in K-BB%. 2021’s walk-a-thon couldn’t get a lot worse, and it didn’t. Thankfully. Suffice to say, the Cardinals still need to do more to acquire more strikeouts and less walks next year if they want to take a step forward.

I won’t dive into defensive metrics too much, other than to note that 2022 was not as consistently brilliant as 2021. Bader and O’Neill were key absences that influenced this. Overall, they are still above average defensively, with Edman, Goldschmidt, Arenado all strong. I’m not sold on Carlson in CF but UZR and OAA seem to like him there. While I like good defense in the corner outfield spots, I do wonder how much it matters and suspect improving the offense in these positions might provide more value.

That is the team-wide view. Now let’s drill down into some of the component pieces and start identifying possible strategies to improve. There are many paths to the same outcome. Here are some thoughts.

I think most folks would agree that SS and C are the key positions for talent acquisition this off-season. No big strategy surprises there. But those are also the 2 toughest positions to improve team-wide OPS, as these are typically lower OPS, defense first players.

So, how to improve team OPS, particularly against RH pitching? While the .717 OPS by LH batters against RH pitching was an improvement from 2021’s paltry .692 OPS against LHP, it was not good enough and was led by weak showings by switch hitters Carlson and Edman against RHP. This was a repeat from 2021. I believe the club was expecting greater improvement from Carlson and Edman, but to no avail. After multiple years of this, we are left to wonder if this is who they are and consider more top-tier solutions. Moving Carlson to CF and Edman to SS opens up 2B and RF to more OPS heavy producers at less defensively demanding positions. Might this strategy, started mid-season 2022, play out deeper in the off-season?

As noted, there are many pathways to improving the offense, probably mostly centered at the OF corners (and DH). Strategies to solve run the usual gamut – rely on internal options, trade, or sign free agents.

On the internal front, Gorman, Burleson, Nootbar and Donovan seem to be the internal candidates that might be counted on to help solve this problem, but they don’t all fit together well. I would not expect Dickerson back. With all but Nootbar, you get a step back in defensive production and no guarantee you get a step forward in offensive production. None of these 4 guys have had enough playing time for their defensive stats to normalize, so it is hard to say how much step back you get on the defensive side. Same on the offensive side. It’s too soon to tell. Donovan’s OBP skills interest me. Can Gorman hit enough to justify the big step back defensively at 2B? Is Nootbar really a 4th OFer, or a long-term solution in Right? What is Burleson, exactly? I do suspect he could replicate what Dickerson provided this year, but as we see, that wasn’t good enough to sustain offense against RH pitching. They need a step forward here, not a rookie that does what Dickerson did for less dollars.

Another key variable is which Tyler O’Neill will they get in 2023. Vintage 2021 will improve the offense quite a bit right there. And where does Yepez fit? Maybe they just have too many DH types.

A wild card on the internal side is answered by what the expected timeline for Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker might be. Winn’s arrival would replace DeJong and push Edman back the 2B. This would put more pressure on improving OPS vs. RHP on the two corner OF spots. Walker’s arrival might fix one of those spots, but on what timeline? 2023 or 2025?

On the pitching side, I think the choices are starker and strategies simpler to define. They need more K, less BB and a top-tier starter who misses bats. From a production standpoint, the major K-BB% culprits were Pallante, Hudson and Hicks. For starting pitchers with > 50 IP, Dakota Hudson was 179th out of 179 qualified pitchers in K-BB%. That is right folks. Dead last. Expand the set to include relievers and Pallante was 323rd out of 347 and Jordan Hicks was 274th out of 347 pitchers. Not good. Especially when you consider these were core/back-end guys. While their raw talent level is top tier ceiling, their performance is … not. Personally, I wish the team would look less at the radar gun readings and more at the performance and consider options that provide better results, if at lower octanes.

Interestingly, in 2022, Flaherty was the only significant injury among the main starters (unless you were counting on Reyes for some reason), so relatively good health was a factor in attaining an average-ish outcome this year. This should be a red flag for the 2023 roster. A second red flag would be the significant bump in innings several main starters experienced in 2022. This is often a predictor of increased injury or diminished performance in out years (Mikolas, Hudson). Montgomery returns, so the core of a decent rotation exists, but an addition or two is needed.

As with 2021, an oft-overlooked aspect of the Cardinal’s late season surge is how dependent it was on LH pitching (read: Quintana, Montgomery). The Cardinals had several decidedly average-ish LH veteran pitchers succeed in the second half, and that tells me their local competition (NL Central) is vulnerable to even average LH pitching. Recall that the 2022 club collected 40%+ of their wins against the NL Central. A step up in starting pitching could allow them to be more competitive against the rest of the league. NOTE: The more balanced 2023 schedule suggests that this approach should be a key strategy choice, as the Cardinals will play 24 LESS games against the NL Central in 2023.

I’d venture a starting 5 of Matz, Montgomery, Mikolas, Flaherty and FA/Trade pitcher to-be-named would be a good starting point for the 2023 season. Internal options can round out the bullpen, in my view, as relievers performance is highly volatile and signing FA relievers is such a crap shoot I don’t consider it a strategy.

I am of the mind that the "depth" pitching (starters 6 through 10) is improving with internal options Liberatore, Thompson, Graceffo, McGreevy lurking at AA or AAA. Woodford does not appear to be in their plans. I’m not sure what to make of Hudson. On one hand, the lack of command he had in 2021 is typical of first year back from TJ surgery (see: Wainwright, circa 2012). On the other, it was an issue before TJ and more concerning, it seemed like some of the adjustments he needed to make (such as improving his pace) he just couldn’t … or wouldn’t.

Last in pitching, you have the bullpen – the match-up team, the guys you piece together in the back of the game to get to the finish line. Gallegos, Cabrera, Helsley are the core and are all expected back. Thompson looks like a keeper on the LH side here. COVID and injury ruined Cabrera’s 2022 season, but I expect him back. If there is a strategy here (other than just filling this group out), a few more K’s and a few less walks would be it, I think.

So, really, the entire 2023 strategy for pitching can be summarized as get a really good starter, consider jettisoning your poor K-BB% guys and let the rest sort itself out from returning pitchers.

Last, let’s talk a couple of roster spruce up strategies. The Cardinals have always striven for a bit of churn in the roster to keep things from getting stale. This year will be no different. Only 2 FAs leave (Dickerson, Quintana) and I’m not convinced Quintana won’t be back. Molina and Pujols retire. And maybe Wainwright. I have a hard time imagining DeJong returning. Wainwright was 263rd out of 347 in K-BB%, suggesting his late season slump was deserved. His trends (and age) do not suggest improvement is in his future. Much as I love him and much as I’d cheer for him if he were on the mound, it’s time to part ways and replace with more K-BB% talent and start sizing him for that red jacket.