Expectations for late round picks aren’t very high. It’s much easier to follow and root for the high round picks. Luckily there are people like me who spend too much time looking at numbers of the entirety of the St. Louis Cardinals farm system, which is how I came across Chandler Redmond.
The Cardinals took Redmond in the 32nd round of the most recent draft out of Gardner-Webb, and he really put together a good year with Johnson City. I know, 32nd round will cue some eye rolls. I like looking at all prospects, no matter how relevant they seem and Redmond showed what he can do from a power perspective, so here we are.
The headline is that he slashed .287/.382/.552 with 12 homers in 54 games after being drafted. Per Fangraphs, that is a top 10 organizational MiLB finish in homers, a top four finish in wRC+ at 151, and he was tied for the farm system lead in ISO at .265. It was undeniably a good year in a very small sample size.
Redmond opened enough eyes for the guys over at Prospects Live to name him the Appalachian League All-Star for the third base position. In his blurb is a really nice power stat.
Between his professional debut and his last three years of college, he’s hit 60 home runs in about 900 PA.
It’s pretty clear just from the numbers that Redmond can generate power from his 6’1”, 230 pound frame. The test will be what he does when he isn’t facing younger competition as he was in the Appalachian League.
Taking what I can from the video below, he can spray the ball around the park well, but his over-the-fence power is going to be on the pull side, which is confirmed by Fangraphs, who list his pull/center/oppo percentages as 39.8/27.3/32.8.
It’s not all positive, Redmond had a strikeout percentage north of 25 percent and a swinging strike percentage of 16.8 percent. So there is plenty of swing and miss in his game. That will mean his power will have to continue to play up as he faces better pitching. That might prove to be a struggle because of his flat bat path, but he’s shown so much natural power he could keep putting the ball over fence with ease.
Keep in mind, Redmond was old for the league, but he still performed very well. It was statistically worth pointing out because if he can continue it then there could be some really nice value coming from the 32nd round. However, the nature of the beast is that a 32nd rounder will have to do a lot more to earn his keep than a higher draft pick.
His size and power profile mean he will likely be a first baseman long term. If nothing else can be said, he put together an eye-popping season.