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2019 Viva El Birdos Community Projections Results: The Pitchers

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St Louis Cardinals v New York Mets Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Earlier today, the community projections for Cardinals position players were released. Now, we have the pitchers on tap. Since this is the final projection post for 2019 (MLB or MiLB), I want to say thank you, once again, for participating. Without your feedback, this project wouldn’t be possible!

2019 Community Prospect Projections: The Pitching Results

2019 Community Prospect Projections: The Hitting Results

2019 Viva El Birdos Community Projections Results: The Hitters

I split the eight pitchers we projected by putting four in each table. Putting all eight in one was just a bit crowded.

2019 Cardinals Pitching Projections

Player App GS FIP K BB/9
Player App GS FIP K BB/9
Brett Cecil 0-24 < 10 > 4.50 < 50 > 3.00
Jack Flaherty 25-35 26-29 3.21-3.49 150-199 2.00-2.49
Luke Gregerson 0-24 < 10 > 4.50 < 50 > 3.00
Carlos Martinez 25-35 < 10 3.50-3.74 101-149 1.50-1.99

2019 Cardinals Pitching Projections

Player App GS FIP K BB/9
Player App GS FIP K BB/9
Miles Mikolas 25-35 > 30 3.21-3.49 150-199 1.50-1.99
Andrew Miller 46-59 < 10 < 3.20 51-75 1.50-1.99
Michael Wacha 25-35 21-25 3.50-3.74 101-149 2.00-2.49
Adam Wainwright 25-35 11-15 3.50-3.74 76-100 2.00-2.49

Some notes to think about while digesting this data:

  • Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, and Carlos Martinez are opening the 2019 season on the injured list. Cecil was diagnosed with Carpal Tunnel syndrome in his left hand, Gregerson has a right shoulder impingement, and Martinez has a right shoulder cuff strain.
  • The lowest single-season BB/9 rate for Michael Wacha was 2.64 back in 2013, in his dazzling rookie season. It has steadily climbed each season since then, reaching 3.84 last year. Perhaps Wacha will dramatically reverse that trend in 2019?
  • Miles Mikolas started 32 games for the Cardinals last season and proved to be the team’s most dependable starting pitcher; hence, the four-year extension he got in the offseason and the Opening Day start he will make on Thursday. He struck out 146 batters and had a 1.30 BB/9 - the lowest among all qualified starters. (For reference, Corey Kluber of the Indians was second with a 1.42.) So, it appears this community is expecting a slight uptick in strikeouts and a greater increase in walks. It is probably smart to expect some regression, although we can certainly hope it is of the ‘minor’ variety.
  • With Adam Wainwright projected for 25-35 appearances and only 11-15 starts, that means it is expected he will see some work as a reliever in 2019. Wainwright, entering his age 37 season, has just four relief appearances dating back to 2015, and three of them came in that year. I guess we will have to see what manager Mike Shildt has in mind for his first full season at the helm.
  • The same string of thought leads to Martinez, who is projected for 25-35 games with fewer than 10 starts. Shildt tooled with Martinez in the bullpen last season, so this wouldn’t be as shocking as it would be if Wainwright served as a reliever, especially since Martinez is dealing with a shoulder injury that has apparently lingered for months. And, if Dakota Hudson proves to be a formidable starter, why would anybody want to mess with a good thing?
  • After a hamstring strain, knee inflammation, and a shoulder impingement came about at varying times to limit him to just 34 innings last season, left-hander Andrew Miller is projected to make a big impact in St. Louis’s bullpen. Nonetheless, Miller is projected for only 51-75 strikeouts. In 2017 with Cleveland, Miller appeared in 57 games and whiffed 95 batters. In 70 games between the Yankees and Indians in 2016, Miller fanned 123 opponents.