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Looking at the Failures of the 2010 Draft - Part 2

Continued from Part 1

It took me awhile to get part two done for various reasons, but a large one had to do with the complete lack of response the first part got, making this feel pretty pointless. Well here's part two finally.

16th Round

#499 - Anthony Bryant

Anthony Bryant was drafted out of high school so he started his career in the Gulf Coast League. He wasn't great (84 wRC+) but he had a 14% BB rate so there was some promise there. He basically repeated the same stat line in 2011, but with slightly less walks and strikeouts. He broke through at 20, hitting for a 146 wRC+ while significantly cutting his strikeouts (to a still large 25%), doubling his power, and walking at the same rate. He got promoted to Johnson City for five games, hitting only singles in 15 PAs while not walking (and only striking out twice). According to a post made by Marc Hulet on Fangraphs at the end of the 2013 season, he was handed his release papers after spring training, later got signed by the Nationals, and still didn't appear in a game for 2013 or any season after. Peculiar.

Notable draftees - Cody Allen (#480), Dalton Pompey (#486)

17th Round

#529 - Corderious Dodd

Awesome name, but let's be honest: this guy should never have been drafted. That's not a name that's ever going to make the MLB. He played in three seasons for the GCL Cardinals, and wasn't any good so they let him go after 2012. (He had a .190 average his last season with a .316 BABIP)

Notable draftees - Cody Anderson (#521)

Anderson was drafted by the Rays after his junior season, but went unsigned. He got drafted in 2011 by the Indians.

18th Round

#559 - Boone Whiting

Now here's a baseball name and a prospect I actually remember. He got assigned to Johnson City after being drafted, racking up a 30% K rate and 2.2% BB rate in 54 IP. This convinced the Cardinals brass to let him skip straight to Quad Cities where he had similar results. He looks to have had a mostly lost season in 2012 due to injuries, pitching only 65 total innings, ranging from all the way down to GCL to AA. He started 2013 in Memphis where he was very good again with a 2.93 ERA and similar peripherals. He finished the year in Memphis, starting 21 games. He was fine. He repeated AAA in 2014, essentially repeating the same performance and only pitching in 20 games. In 2015, he was bad in 22 IP so the Cardinals released him. Rockies picked him up, where he was also not good. The Nationals signed him as minor league depth, having him pitch most of the season in High A, where he was only fine. Whiting is yet another example of a pitcher whose career seems to have been derailed by injuries.

Notable Draftees - Kris Bryant (#546)

It probably goes without saying that Bryant did not sign with the Blue Jays sadly.

19th Round

#589 - Chad Oberacker

Oberacker went unsigned as a junior and got drafted the next season by the Oakland Athletics. He stuck around until 2016, but he never made it past AA.

Notable draftees - Adam Eaton (#571), Jacoby Jones (#573), Rowan Wick (#579)

Yes, that Adam Eaton and yes he did sign. Jones and Wick did not however (obviously in the case of Wick) and both are coincidentally Canadian.

20th round

#619 - Trevor Martin

It is difficult to discern whether players quit because they didn't get paid enough or whether the Cardinals cut them in some cases. Martin lasted until 2013, which would have been his age 21 season. He barely compiled any stats whatsoever though. He was decent in 23 games in the GCL after getting drafted, but with too many strikeouts and barely any power. He played in a single game in 2011, so we can guess that he was dealing with a rather significant injury. He advanced to Johnson City in 2012, playing in only 31 games. He had a 122 wRC+ with a .297 BABIP and a .219 ISO. In 2013, he played in only 12 games for Batavia before getting promoted despite an 82 wRC+. I say he was promoted because, well he did so well at Quad Cities that there's no way he was demoted to Batavia. He played in 29 games, hitting .373 while not walking at all and needing a .459 BABIP to do it. Then he was gone. It'd be pretty weird if they cut him after that season, so he presumably retired, possibly because of pay or maybe he had a pretty serious injury issue since he barely played at all in general.

Notable Draftees - Cody Martin (#615)

21st Round

#649 - Josh Lucas

I had no idea he'd been in the Cardinals organization for so long. In fact, I was pretty sure this guy was an older minor leaguer that they had signed recently. It looks like he lost quite a few years to injury problems. He pitched in 14 total games between 2011 and 2013. He was in Low A at 23, where he absolutely dominated, but he was also 23 in Low A. He skipped Quad Cities to pitch in Palm Beach, where he was also incredible, but he was also 24 in High A. He just kept performing though. He was great in Springfield, but suffered his first performance-related setback when he was terrible in 7 Memphis games. Cardinals brought him back to AAA though and this time, he was quite good again. He had 7 IP of not very effective MLB appearances but the projection systems like him well enough for a guy who is 27 and has consistently played in leagues where he was the old guy.

Notable draftees - Aaron Blair (#633), Josh Smith (#637), Kevin Shackleford (#639), Adam Liberatore (#641)

Most of the interesting players thus far probably either went unsigned and raised their profiles later (like Blair) or were replacement level relievers (like everyone else mentioned in this round).

22nd Round

#679 - Steven Ramos

Ramos was drafted out of college, but he was only 19 when drafted (though he turned 20 a month later). He was pretty decent for the GCL Cardinals in 40 games after being drafted, hitting for a 115 wRC+. He started 2011 in Johnson City and he wasn't very good there, mostly because he walked only 3% of the time. He got promoted to Batavia anyway to begin 2012, and he wasn't very good there either, though he managed to double his walk rate and strike out less from his JC days. He repeated Low A for 2013 and hit for a 148 wRC+, though he he did it with a .410 BABIP, no power, and a 5.5 BB%. He started the 2014 season in High A and batted .118 in 5 games and that was it for Ramos.

Notable Draftees - None

23rd Round

#709 - Dyllon Nuernberg

Cardinals when the hell will you learn to stop draft people who have names that will never make the MLB. Also Dyllon? Couldn't decide between Dylan and Dillon so you combined them, parents of this probably nice fellow? Here's another guy drafted out of college who was 19. Nuernberg pitched in 14 games after getting drafted, striking out a lot of batters but also walking a lot of batters. He cut down on both in Johnson City the next year, but he started at such a high point that he still struck out a lot of batters (9+ K/9) and walked a lot of batters (4+ BB/9). He appears to have started at Johnson City for 2012, striking out 10 and walking one in 7 IP before getting promoted to Batavia. Once in Batavia, he cut down the walks to a still kind of high 3.82 BB/9 but his strikeouts also fell to 8.22. He didn't pitch after 2012.

Notable Draftees - Evan Gattis (#704), Blake Treinen (#707), Alec Asher (#708)

Both Gattis and Treinen took unusual routes to big leagues. Treinen went unsigned here even though he turned 22 later that month and he actually got drafted in the 7th round despite being nearly 23 next season. He got traded from the Athletics to the Nationals and then from the Nationals to the Athletics again. Gattis has too long of a story to post here, but I suggest Googling because it's a good story.

24th Round

#739 - Pat Biserta

Cardinals don't usually give up on players THIS quickly. He got drafted out of college, was sent straight to Batavia, and had a .692 OPS there. In 2011, he played one season of independent league ball so I guess the Cardinals released him right after the season.

Notable Draftees - Tim Adelman (#718), Andrew Triggs (#720), Erik Goeddel (#722), Daniel Poncedeleon (#731), Christian Bergman (#740)

Poncedeleon has the rare distinction of being drafted four times. He obviously went unsigned here, got drafted two years later in the 38th round, was drafted by the Cubs a year later in the 14th round, and finally by the Cardinals in the 9th round in 2014.

25th Round

#769 - Richard Mendoza

Pretty simple story here. He was drafted out of high school and was crushed to the tune of a 10 ERA in 18 IP while walking more than he struck out for the GCL Cardinals. He came back for 2011 and was even worse, getting lit up to the tune of a 15 ERA while walking more than double than the people he struck out. That was his last season for the Cardinals.

Notable Draftees - AJ Schugel (#774)

26th Round

#799 - Victor Sanchez

Sanchez got sent to Batavia to start his career, soon after getting drafted. He had a 135 wRC+ for Batavia. He started 2011 in Quad Cities, where he was a below average hitter. This is one of those cases where the Cardinals might have cut him because he was a 1B and was a little old for the league (22) or he quit playing baseball because it was hard to see a future. We will never know.

Notable Draftees - Scott Schebler (#802), Dillon Overton (#803)

27th Round

#829 - Aiden Lucas

Lucas was drafted as a reliever, or at least that's all he ended up playing professionally. Drafted out of college, he pitched 21 solid innings at Johnson City right after the draft. In 2011, he threw 39 solid but unspectacular innings as at least the part-time closer for Quad Cities. He got promoted to Palm Beach for 2012, where he was just solid, not great, though he did have a deceivingly good ERA. He pitched 7 total innings in 2013, so I'm guessing we can chalk that up to injury. He played at Palm Beach for the third straight year in 2014, where his numbers declined significantly, thanks to not striking anyone out anymore. That was the end of his tenure with the Cards and minor league baseball.

Notable Draftees - Alex Claudio (#826), Brandon Cunniff (#827)

28th Round

#859 - Taylor Black

Well, alright. The site I'm using for drafting purposes said this guy's name was John Black, who was a player who played on season in 1911 so I was pretty sure he wasn't him. I could not find this guy. And that's because his name is not John Black, but Taylor, at least according to Baseball-Reference. Anyway, Cardinals could not sign the junior of Kentucky, which turned out fine because the Phillies drafted him a year later and a year after that, he was out of baseball after OPSing .576 in Low A at 22.

Notable Draftees - None

29th Round

#889 - Chris Patterson

Here's one of the unexplained disappearances. He signed with the Cardinals pretty soon after being drafted, because he was able to throw in 11 games for Johnson City. He pitched 12 unremarkable innings in relief, striking out almost 12 batters an inning but also walking over 5 per inning. He also had 3 HBP and 2 wild pitches in his short time there. So he was pretty wild. He didn't come back for 2011.

Notable Draftees - Marco Gonzales (#890)

Obviously, Gonzales went unsigned and later got drafted by the Cardinals and well you know the story from there.

30th Round

#929 - Iden Nazario

This one I can explain as he seemed to try for as long as he was able. Yet another pure reliever out of college, he started in Johnson City. He struck out 30 percent of batters and walked 16% of batters. He skipped a level, outside of 3 games in Batavia that were not very good, pitching 30 solid innings. His K rate mostly stayed the same while his walk rate declined. He got promoted to Palm Beach in 2012, where his career stagnated. Hitters stopped chasing his pitches though as he only struck out 22% of batters while still walking 16% of batters. He repeated High A in 2013, striking out more while cutting his walks to only 10% of batters. They kept him at Palm Beach where he kept the walks down but struck out less. He got promoted to Springfield for 2015 when he was 26 and he was fine, but his strikeouts fell to career lows and he still had a 4.54 BB/9. Cardinals presumably didn't ask him to return.

Notable Draftees - Josh Edgin (#902), Shawn Tolleson (#922)

31st Round

#949 - Mike O'Neill

Mike O'Neill is a made up video game player where you put plate discipline at 100 and everything else at zero. Well that's a little unfair. He did have some contact skills. After getting drafted, he walked more than he struck out, showed little power and had a 127 wRC+ overall. In 2011, he went to Batavia, literally walked more than twice as much as he struck out and added power to his profile. He got promoted to Quad Cities, where he had a good enough 95 PAs to warrant another promotion to Palm Beach to begin 2012. At Palm Beach, he walked 14% of the time and struck out 5% of the time while batting .342 with no power. He batted .563 in 13 games in Springfield before the year was over. He actually dominated at Springfield too and finally slowed down a bit in Memphis to end the year with a 105 wRC+. He unfortunately repeated at Springfield the next season and his numbers suffered mightily. He lasted one more season before the Cardinals gave up on him.

Notable Draftees - David Goforth (#930), Aaron Judge (#935), Kevin Kiermaier (#941)

Goforth went back to college and got himself drafted in the 7th round the next year. Judge went unsigned. Kiermaier surprisingly did not so sometimes the longshot high school picks actually work out.

32nd Round

#979 - Ryan Copeland

Here's an interesting one. He started in Johnson City, with his main trait being that he didn't walk anybody. Seriously, he had a 1.18 BB/9. He also had an 8.10 K/9 so his numbers were strong all around. He went straight to Quad Cities, where his K/9 raised to 9 and his BB/9 raised only slightly to 1.65. He then pitched 2.2 IP in 2012 and never again, leading me to believe he got seriously injured and either gave up after a long recovery or couldn't physically pitch again.

Notable Draftees - Jason Rogers (#969)

33rd Round

#1009 - Joseph Bergman

One thing is for certain. The Cardinals liked this guy. They drafted him the previous year too. He hit for a 134 wRC+ in the months after being drafted, but was forced to repeat Batavia in 2011. He also had a 134 wRC+ before being promoted to Quad Cities. In 35 games there, he cut down his K rate to 12%, but his BABIP followed and went from .374 to .330, giving him a 114 wRC+. He then... stopped playing.

Notable Draftees - Ryan Sherriff (#986)

Sherriff went unsigned and later got drafted by the Cardinals (obviously).

34th Round

#1039 - Matt Valaika

Drafted out of college, he lasted for the rest of the year but the Cardinals didn't bring him back after he wrC+'d 47 in Batavia.

Notable Draftees - Steve Selsky (#1040)

35th Round

#1069 - Drew Benes

As far as I can tell, no relation to the Benes brothers, but this guy never got big enough to where that would be revealed anyway. Another relief prospect, he was strong in Johnson City in 23 IP immediately following the draft. In 2011, Benes maintained the same numbers in Batavia while adding 9 percentage points to his GB%. Midseason, he got promoted to Quad Cities where his numbers tanked. His K rate fell to 13.7% and his BB rate rose to 8.4%. In 2012, I guess Palm Beach was hard up for starters because he started 16 games when he had previously not started anyway. His numbers were not great and 2012 was his last season.

Notable Draftees - Tyler Wilson (#1057)

36th Round

#1099 - Dean Kiekhefer

The site I am looking at this for claimed Kiekhefer was a LHP and went to LHP for school. Anyway, he made the MLB so you know his story a bit. But he was a reliever who didn't really strike anyone out, not even in the minors, so he was always a bit of a longshot. Pretty good for the 36th round though.

Notable Draftees - None

37th Round

#1129 - Patrick Elkins

Unclear what happened to him. He finished 2010 with solid numbers at Johnson City (109 wRC+). In 2011, he had a 16.4 BB% and an 18% K rate, but he had zero power, so his wRC+ was only 107. He had a bad 51 PAs in 2012 and then a good 55 PAs in Palm Beach in 2013, but that's all that he played both years so something was up.

Notable Draftees - Chad Green (#116)

Green went unsigned and got drafted in the 11th round 3 years later.

38th Round

#1159 - Jeff Nadeau

Nadeau did not last long. He played in Johnson City following being drafted and he was fine. He didn't strike many people out but he also didn't walk anybody. But he didn't return to play in 2011 for whatever reason.

39th Round

#1189 - Ian Perry

Well, I actually expected this result more than it's happened. I can't find any evidence Perry ever played professional ball and since he was drafted out of high school, he likely went undrafted later in his college career.

Notable Draftees - Jacob May (#1177), Jaycob Brugman (#1195)

Two guys who also went unsigned out of high school, but they both got drafted three years later.

Rounds 40-50

Phil Cerreto pulled a Pete Kozma by batting .425 in 32 games to finish the 2010 season at Johnson City, but didn't manage an OPS above .551 at any of the three levels he visited in 2011 (GCL, Batavia, Palm Beach) and was done after that. The next two guys apparently do not exist as there is no evidence they played in the minors at all. 43rd round pick Chris Edmondson hit very well up until 2012 when he hit Palm Beach and the Cardinals cut bait at that point as he was old for the league. Adam Melker hit well enough in Batavia in 2010 that they allowed him to skip Palm Beach for next season, but he didn't hit a lick there. He got promoted to Springfield anyway in 2012 and his numbers improved to a 111 wRC+, but when he repeated AA, his numbers declined so they let him go. Robert Hansen was drafted out of high school in the 45th but didn't sign or play professional baseball later in life. 46th pick Peter Mooney was drafted out of a community college and didn't sign but was drafted and signed in 2011 and was still in baseball as of last year, but still no majors.

Justin Wright got close. He dominated the lower minors, making it to Springfield by 22 as a reliever. He stayed in AA until the middle of 2014 though, when he was very bad in 21 IP in AAA. He repeated AAA and was decent, but he declined in 2016 and that was the end of his career. Hector Acosta-Carillo did not sign and appeared to have quit baseball. Bob Revesz did sign and was not great at Johnson City after signing. He appears to have not played baseball in 2011, probably due to TJ surgery, and the Cardinals let him try his hand at Quad Cities in 2012, but he was even worse there so that was it for him. In the 50th and final round, Andrew Moye didn't sign because he was a junior, but evidently was able to use his senior year to rise all the way to the 15th round next season. He's out of baseball now.

Notable Draftees - Seth Maness (#1247 - unsigned), Steven Okert (#1299 - unsigned), David Rollins (#1392 - unsigned), AJ Achter (#1395)

AJ Achter, drafted in the 46th round, is the only player I could find that was drafted in the final 10 rounds who actually signed and made their way to the majors. Anyone remotely interesting that got drafted here usually chose to try their hand at college or another year at college instead of signing. And if they do, it seems limited to relievers, seeing as Justin Wright was rather close himself.

Conclusion

Well my first conclusion is that it sure seems like a hell of a lot of pitching prospects could plausibly make it to the majors, except injuries get in the way. Obviously, being able to actually throw a baseball is rather valuable, but it was kind of depressing to see how many people lost their chance at their dream because of something that is not really their fault.

Also, one of the bigger benefits of getting drafted high - or even in the first 20 rounds - is that the Cardinals seem to promote them aggressively while the later guys really need to earn their promotions. Seth Blair made it to AAA without ever pitching good. I'm not even saying that's the wrong move, because nearly all of the later guys end up reaching a wall, usually Springfield for pitchers and Palm Beach for hitters. Going to guess the hitting environments of those places have a large reason to do with that, as well as AA's general reputation for being the hardest jump (which makes sense, but I have no idea if that's true)

This was not a particularly good draft, although it is worth noting that this draft produced nine guys who made it to the major leagues, which seems pretty fucking high. Most of them came for a cup of coffee, but you have ideal MLB middle infield depth (Garcia), solid reliever who might be really good (Lyons, Tui), good minor league bullpen depth (Lucas). You used one of the picks to get Edward Mujica, who was above average, but by runs-based results, nearly worth as much as the average 25th overall pick. Even though he was a throw-in (Jenkins), another pick was used to get Jason Heyward. And as mentioned above, I actually think there's quite a few good selections that just ended up getting derailed by injuries. (Swagerty is #1 on that list) .

But yeah, when you whiff badly on your first three picks, your draft probably won't look good overall.