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Here’s what I said about Brett Cecil a couple weeks ago when I initially asked the Viva El Birdos community for projections:
In 2017, St. Louis Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil was just kind of there. He had a high-threes ERA, a low-threes FIP—it was the kind of season that if it were had by a mid-twenties rookie making the league minimum and coming out of the bullpen, you wouldn’t give him a second thought. It was actually an improvement by ERA and FIP (and innings), so one might even think Cecil had a bit of a breakthrough in 2017.
This was not the perception of Cecil’s season by and large among Cardinals fans. When the former Toronto Blue Jays reliever was signed in November 2016 to a four-year, $30.5 million free agent contract, expectations were that Cecil would emerge not necessarily as a closer, but as a stalwart member of the bullpen. By the standards of expecting excellence, Brett Cecil was somewhat underwhelming, though he was hardly a disaster—he struck out 8.82 batters per nine innings and walked 2.14 per nine. Additionally, he became something of a reverse-splits monster, allowing a .230 wOBA against righties (versus .392 against lefties).
The nature of a relief pitcher season is that quick bursts of poor performance can dramatically impact the perception of the season as a whole. In his second game as a Cardinal, Pham allowed four earned runs and recorded zero outs. If you remove only that performance, Cecil’s 3.88 ERA is cut down to 3.34. There is a huge difference in perception between a 3.88 ERA and a 3.34 ERA.
Here is how he was projected compared to ZiPS and Steamer.
Brett Cecil 2018 Projections
Brett Cecil | Starts | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | SV | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brett Cecil | Starts | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | SV | ERA | FIP | WAR |
VEB | 0 | 63 1/3 | 8.99 | 2.95 | 4 | 3.56 | 3.64 | 1.1 |
ZiPS | 0 | 58 | 9.62 | 2.48 | 15 | 3.26 | 3.02 | 1 |
Steamer | 0 | 45 | 9.15 | 2.88 | 0 | 3.53 | 3.57 | 0.5 |