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VEB 2018 Projections Results: Paul DeJong

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Is the community buying his breakout rookie season?

Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

When I penned the original Paul DeJong projections post a few weeks ago, here is what I had to say about the recently-extended shortstop:

Never underestimate the power of Devil Magic™. That is what Paul DeJong reminded us all when he burst onto the scene in 2017.

Homering off Greg Holland in his first MLB at-bat, DeJong revived the Cardinals’ hopes at shortstop after Aledmys Diaz’s dreadful start to 2017. The former Illinois State Redbird provided a spark both at the plate (122 wRC+) and in the field (3.1 UZR/150 games at shortstop) en route to a 3.0 fWAR season, but there are reasons to believe his production in this small sample may have been more glamorous on the surface than in reality. DeJong will open 2018 as the Cardinals’ starting shortstop, a role the club is counting on him to thrive in as they have little depth at the position behind him.

Will DeJong build off his breakout 2017 or will his performance this upcoming season lead fans to question his promising debut?

This is how you all responded to that question I posed:

Paul DeJong 2018 Projections

Paul DeJong Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
Paul DeJong Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
VEB 569 27 85 75 5 0.271 0.328 0.492 3.2
Steamer 515 23 74 60 3 0.262 0.308 0.462 2.1
ZiPS 602 26 81 69 3 0.254 0.303 0.453 1.6

As expected, VEB readers are more bullish on DeJong than the ZiPS and Steamer projections systems. While all three anticipate him to be less valuable on a per-plate-appearance basis, you projected DeJong’s on-base percentage to increase by three points from last year. By comparison, ZiPS and Steamer foresee his OBP falling by 22 and 17 points, respectively. As I noted earlier this month, refined plate discipline could be the key to avoiding a sophomore slump for DeJong.

Thank you to everybody who has participated in this annual series. As Opening Day nears, we will reveal more community projections results in the coming days.