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VEB 2018 Projections Results: Tommy Pham

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The community is buying into the outfielder’s outstanding 2017 campaign.

Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

In the original Tommy Pham projections post, I described his 2017 season as “one of the most efficient in modern Cardinals history.” The question of the hour with Pham seems to be just how sustainable his performance last year is going forward. Both the ZiPS and Steamer projections foresee an above-average, three-win season for the 30-year-old centerfielder. You the VEB readers, on the other hand, are predicting a little more from Pham in 2018.

Tommy Pham 2018 Projections

Tommy Pham Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
Tommy Pham Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
VEB 563 27 88 94 25 0.293 0.378 0.518 5.4
Steamer 571 19 65 77 18 0.267 0.357 0.441 2.9
ZiPS 532 20 68 78 18 0.263 0.353 0.458 2.9

Relative to FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections, a hybrid between the aforementioned ZiPS and Steamer, a 5.4 WAR projection would be good for 9th best among all position players–right behind Bryce Harper and just ahead of Manny Machado.

While you all don’t quite envision Pham achieving his goal of posting a 30-30 (HR-SB) season, you do see his slugging percentage, .520 in 2017, to be more-or-less the same this year. The key change offensively is a projected 33 point drop in OBP according to the crowdsourced projections. Perhaps the VEB projections also anticipate regression on the base paths and/or in the field, as his predicted WAR per 600 plate appearances is 5.8, down from the 6.7 he produced last year.

For the first time in his life, Pham will enter a new year as a clear-cut big league regular. The outcome of his encore season remains to be seen, but in the meantime you can check back here at Viva El Birdos, where more player projections will be revealed in the very near future.