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VEB 2018 Projections Results: Marcell Ozuna

The VEB community foresees a monster St. Louis debut for the recently-acquired slugger.

Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a 2015 in which FanGraphs rated him as below average both offensively and defensively, Marcell Ozuna rebounded the following year to produce 2.5 WAR, then the second highest mark of his career. Entering 2017, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections pegged Ozuna to be worth exactly 2.5 wins again.

Oh how modest a projection that would prove to be.

There are only so many different combinations of words one can use to describe Ozuna’s breakout campaign. Of chief importance was that his batting performance increased 36% as measured by wRC+. He would end last year with 4.8 fWAR, nearly double his ZiPS projection. Needless to say, the bar has been set high for the man who just might be the Cardinals’ best position player.

When I asked you all for your 2018 Ozuna predictions, this is what you had to say.

Marcell Ozuna 2018 Projections

Marcell Ozuna Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
Marcell Ozuna Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
VEB 602 34 108 92 6 0.293 0.364 0.543 5.0
Steamer 604 30 97 82 2 0.294 0.356 0.521 3.8
ZiPS 644 30 103 81 1 0.278 0.335 0.492 3.1

While the Steamer and ZiPS projections expect a notable level of regression from Ozuna going forward, VEB readers beg to differ. For those wondering, the second lowest WAR projection among all respondents was 3.4. Make no mistake: I would be absolutely ecstatic if the Cardinals receive a five-win encore from Ozuna in 2018, but for the record, I am inclined to take the under on that VEB prediction. (I say hello to Twitter user @OldTakesExposed if Ozuna happily proves me wrong.)

I want to give a big thank you to everybody who has participated in this annual community projections series. Be sure to check back later for the results from other projections surveys.