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VEB 2018 Projections Results: Kolten Wong

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Do readers see a breakout on the horizon for the Cardinals second baseman?

Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

It has not been uncommon for VEB readers to overestimate players in past renditions of the community projections series. Last year, you all projected a .262/.328/.400 slashline (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 2.3 WAR in 486 plate appearances for Kolten Wong. He would actually outperform expectations on a rate basis by posting a .285/.376/.412 slashline and 2.1 WAR in 411 plate appearances (2.5 when prorated to the 486 plate appearances VEB predicted).

As Wong prepares for the encore to what was easily his best offensive season, here is what you had to say about 2018.

Kolten Wong 2018 Projections

Kolten Wong Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
Kolten Wong Plate Appearances Home Runs RBI Runs Stolen Bases Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage WAR
VEB 530 11 60 71 17 0.283 0.355 0.431 2.7
Steamer 471 11 52 51 8 0.270 0.349 0.416 1.9
ZiPS 489 11 52 62 12 0.270 0.342 0.415 2.0

With a .786 OPS (on-base plus slugging) and 2.1 WAR per 411 plate appearances projection, readers are essentially expecting Wong to repeat his 2017 performance over 119 more plate appearances. The Steamer and ZiPS projections, on the other hand, envision Wong regressing to roughly league average at the plate. According to wRC+, his batting production was 7% above the mean last year.

Also of note is how all three projections estimate an ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) of about .145 for Wong. His .139 career high figure came back in 2014. While people are evidently predicting more extra bases for Wong in 2018, that may be difficult to accomplish if he continues his batting trends from last season. Excluding his 2013 cup of coffee, Wong’s highest ground ball rate and lowest pull percentage both came last year.

That’ll do it for now. Be sure to check back regularly to find the results for Wong’s teammates.