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Syndergaard Trade Value: Back of the Envelope

Some of the most brilliant work on this site, in my opinion, has come when the tireless writers here work to estimate a players trade value. The most recent example I can remember of such a piece came from Ben_Markham last season, when he attempted to estimate Chris Archer's trade value in a piece that can be found here. I would like to attempt something similar in calculating Syndergaard's trade value. This is a difficult undertaking for a couple reasons. Syndergaard is a mercurial talent, who posted a 6.3 WAR in 2016, struggled in 2017 because of injuries, and bounced back to a 4.2 WAR in 2018. He is projected by STEAMER for a 3.6 WAR season in 2019, but it is likely the Mets internally view his value as much higher than that. Unlike Chris Archer, he has not signed a long term extension. Therefore, he is currently subject to the arbitration process, and the team that owns him will pay him a salary predicated on his performance, which is impossible to predict, for the next three years (he will be a free agent following the 2021 season). There is also a minor issue worth recognizing; the Mets new GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, a former agent, assuredly is desperate to 'win' his first trade and give the appearance to his peers that he knows what he's doing. Pair all this with the fact that the Mets are looking for major league talent in return for Syndergaard and the trade becomes even more difficult to predict. But lets give it a look anyway.

The first thing I tried to do was estimate Syndergaard's WAR and salary for the next three years. For his WAR, I decided to simplify things and project him as a 4 WAR player going forward each year. There are reasons to quibble with this on both sides of the ledger. His injury history, aging curves and the fact that he's a pitcher probably lower that value, and the Mets internal view of him and his 6.3 WAR 2016 give cause for a higher estimate. So splitting the difference seems like a fair way to go. Estimating his arbitration case was a bit more challenging. I tried to look up pitchers with similar talents and statistics that went through the arbitration process, and project a salary for Syndergaard based off of them. I'm happy to show my work on these calculations, but based on assuming Syndergaard's production and salary, his surplus value is $120m. Therefore, any team trading for Syndergaard should be prepared to pay even more than $120m in surplus value to the Mets, because there will be a built in cost for Syndergaard's upside as well.

So how do the Cardinals send $120m worth of surplus value (or more) to the Mets. Figuring this out can be aided by Craig Edward's recent piece over at Fangraphs on prospect values (found here). Now keep in mind, the Mets want MLB-ready pieces. so here is a list of players I can see them both 1) being interested in and 2) players that the Cardinals are actually willing to deal:

MLB Players

1) Kolten Wong (60m)

2) Gyorko (20m)

3) Wacha (6m)

"Prospects"/Unprovens

4) O' Neil (40m)

5) Hudson (40m)

6) Reyes (40m)

7) Kelly (25m)

8) Knizer (25m)

Here calculating surplus value is a again tricky, but I tossed some quick and dirty numbers up there using last seasons also did not include Jose Martinez, assuming NL teams would be hesitant to value him the way an Al team would. This list is by no means perfect, but it does you mix and match for a trade you like for Syndergaard.

What immediately jumps off the page is Wong, Kelly, and Hudson adding up to 120m. The cardinals might have to throw in a low level prospect or two, but that is a deal that would hurt but I'd probably do. Wong, O'Neil, and a couple other mid-level prospects also probably gets the job done.

Again, this is mostly just a thought exercise. While MLB teams do likely have a dollar value on every single major and minor league player, these values depend on scouting and need as well. But the takeaway is this: The Mets would like a number of MLB ready players. The Cardinals seem to be overflowing with players in the upper minors and the major league roster that are ready to play every day. Consolidating some of these average players (a compliment!) for a player with the star power of Syndergaard seems like a win for both teams, and makes the Cardinals a potential player in any Syndergaard trade. The nickname "Thor" would alone add maybe $3m of value to the Cardinals player weekend jerseys!

*A final caveat. 6 or more teams are reported to be in on Syndergaard, which can only increase his price.