FanPost

Could Andrew Knizner make Carson Kelly expendable?

The Cardinals have quite the situation at catcher. They have an aging future hall of famer behind the plate who has just signed a three year extension, and arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball ready to step in for him....today if needed. This sounds fantastic, right? Well, there has already been some tension between Yadier Molina and Mike Matheny regarding rest and Carson Kelly is not getting to play very often right now, possibly hindering his development. Trust me, Yadier Molina is never going to concede his job, not without a fight. This guy is the ultimate competitor and one of the toughest human beings I have ever seen on a baseball field. However, his iron-willed nature is now becoming a bit of a problem.

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Photo Courtesy of performancegroup.com

Carson Kelly needs to play. In my opinion he has already surpassed Molina on defense and it won't be long before his bat catches up as well. The issue is that Yadi is still wanting to play every single day as if he is 27 years old. I personally don't think he will hold up for the duration of that extension, allowing the situation to play out on its own, but you better believe that he signed that three year deal believing that he was going to start every single one of those seasons. If Yadi were to start all three seasons, would the Cardinals let Kelly sit on the bench for all 3 seasons as his backup? Possibly. He would be 26 by the time Molina's contract expired. Would they really risk wasting the value he could provide as a trade chip? It is an interesting situation, and a good problem to have. However, there is another kid rising through the system who could present an alternative solution to this "problem"....Andrew Knizner.

Knizner played at NC State and was drafted in the 7th round of the 2016 amateur draft by the Cardinals. He has done nothing but hit since he arrived, and he has already made his way to AA where he is currently slashing .336/.386/.457, with a .381 wOBA and a wRC+ rating of 136 through 56 games. His bat definitely profiles well behind the plate and he is 6 months younger than Carson Kelly. My favorite thing about Knizner is that he has a line-drive approach and puts the ball in play. His offensive profile is actually very similar to Kelly, but I think he has a better hit tool. He just looks more natural at the plate to me, from the videos I have watched.

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Photo courtesy of milb.com

However, there are some questions about his defense. Many people had him pegged as a guy that would move to a corner infield spot, but the early returns on his defense behind the plate are actually pretty encouraging. In 56 games behind the plate during the 2017 season, Knizner has thrown out 17 of 41 stolen base attempts (41.5 % CS) and has 3 passed balls. He certainly appears to throw adequately, and 3 passed balls is not terrible. For comparison, Kelly had 6 passed balls in 92 games last year between AA and AAA. I am not sure how well he can manage a pitching staff at the moment, but there is some time for him to learn and grow if he needs more development in that area of his game.

If the Cardinals felt comfortable with how Molina was aging, and that Knizner could hold up on defense at the major league level, they could maximize Carson Kelly's value and include him in a trade package for an impact hitter. They desperately need a run producer in the middle of the order and Kelly is one of the few assets they have that could bring one back. The immediate returns for 2018 would certainly be great, as an impact player such as Manny Machado playing 150 games would provide way more value for the team than Carson Kelly playing 30 games as Molina's backup. The issue would be making sure to hold on to said impact hitter for more than just one season, which would be no guarantee. If they did manage to retain the player for the long-term, it is probably considered a good trade.

With Carson Kelly out of the picture, Yadi could rest assured that no one was coming for his job in 2018, as Knizner still needs to play AAA. He would likely remain the starter for 2019 while grooming Knizner, and then maybe in 2020 he could shift his duties to being a backup and mentor to Knizner, concluding his contract and likely career with the Cardinals. This situation would certainly present a favorable transition for Yadi as he grows older. However, it hinges on him continuing to be an effective player at ages 36 and 37, something that is fairly unprecedented for catchers. It also depends on how good Andrew Knizner actually is. Will he continue to hit? Will he continue to grow on defense? There is a lot of unknown here, something the Cardinals are not comfortable with. That does not mean that there isn't the possibility for upside with a an idea like this though.

With all of that being said, I want to clarify something: I think it's a better idea to just hold on to Carson Kelly. It is very possible that he is one Molina DL stint from claiming the job and running with it. At the very least he is going to be a very good defensive catcher that can handle a pitching staff for the next 5-10 years. I still value defense and leadership at catcher more than anything else and I know that Carson Kelly will provide that. There is nothing that suggests that he won't at least be an average hitter as well. There is also nothing wrong with having the best backup catcher in baseball, an underrated advantage.

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Photo courtesy of CBS St. Louis

All that I am trying to say is that IF the Cardinals did decide to include Carson Kelly in a trade package for an impact hitter, it would not be the craziest idea in the world...if they had faith in Andrew Knizner as the catcher of the future.