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2017 VEB Projections Results: Mike Leake

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Here’s how Mike Leake should do this season

MLB: Spring Training-St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

We asked for Mike Leake projections and you gave them to us. Here’s what we said before:

We get it. Mike Leake isn’t the most inspiring pitcher to watch on the mound. He doesn’t have incredible velocity. he doesn’t have a nasty curve. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out. His presence isn’t exactly imposing. He does more or less get the job done, though, and that is what the Cardinals are paying him to do.

Last season, Leake had a solid 3.83 FIP which was good for a 2.5 WAR. Like most Cardinals pitchers last year, he was undone by poor defense and unlucky sequencing. Leake’s .318 BABIP against was 25 point higher than his career average. His 66% left-on-base rate was well below the league average of 73%. That caused a 4.69 ERA.

If he does the exact same thing again this year, he’ll be better. Will he? Last year, we pretty much nailed it. Find ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) projections on their player pages.

Here’s what you said:

Mike Leake Starts IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR
VEB 30 193 5.8 2.2 3.85 3.77 2.4
Steamer 31 186 6.1 2.1 4.16 4.05 2.3
ZiPS 28 174 6.2 2 4.15 4.04 2.1
PECOTA 30 180 6.4 2.2 4.16 3.9 1.9