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2017 VEB Projections Results: Lance Lynn

Here’s how Lance should do this season

MLB: Spring Training-Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Back when we requested projections for Lance Lynn in 2017, we said this:

Lance Lynn is one of the few players VEB didn’t do a projection for last season. After slowing down in the second half of 2015 and pitching through what turned out to be a fairly serious injury, Lynn had Tommy John surgery at the start of the 2015 offseason.

Lynn has since made a full recovery, even appearing in a few minor league games at the end of last season. That should mitigate some concerns regarding rust given Lynn is now nearly a year and a half post-surgery. On August 1, 2015, Lynn had a 2.71 ERA and 2.81 FIP (73 FIP-), essentially ace-level numbers. He’s been a good pitcher since entering the rotation in 2012, and if he can repeat those performances, he will be in line for a big payday at the end of the season.

It’s hard to know exactly how a player is going to do after a long layoff. You can look at various projections like ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) projections on their player pages to get a gauge on what some systems are saying.

Here’s what you said:

Lance Lynn Starts IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR
VEB 31 181 7.8 2.8 3.47 3.5 2.9
Steamer 28 158 8.1 3.2 3.98 3.96 2.3
ZiPS 18 98 8 3.5 3.77 3.95 1.4
PECOTA 26 148 8.4 3.5 4.19 3.9 1.5