Back when we requested projections for Lance Lynn in 2017, we said this:
Lance Lynn is one of the few players VEB didn’t do a projection for last season. After slowing down in the second half of 2015 and pitching through what turned out to be a fairly serious injury, Lynn had Tommy John surgery at the start of the 2015 offseason.
Lynn has since made a full recovery, even appearing in a few minor league games at the end of last season. That should mitigate some concerns regarding rust given Lynn is now nearly a year and a half post-surgery. On August 1, 2015, Lynn had a 2.71 ERA and 2.81 FIP (73 FIP-), essentially ace-level numbers. He’s been a good pitcher since entering the rotation in 2012, and if he can repeat those performances, he will be in line for a big payday at the end of the season.
It’s hard to know exactly how a player is going to do after a long layoff. You can look at various projections like ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) projections on their player pages to get a gauge on what some systems are saying.
Here’s what you said: