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2017 VEB Projections Results: Seung Hwan Oh

Here are Oh’s projections

MLB: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

When we requested projections for Seung-Hwan Oh before the season, this is what we said:

When the St. Louis Cardinals signed Seung-hwan Oh last January, expectations were relatively tepid—that Oh could be a solid member of the bullpen, but that he would ultimately play a secondary role to Trevor Rosenthal and more established relief arms.

Oh was following a 2015 season with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Central League in which he had a 2.73 ERA, his worst professional season in half a decade. But in his rookie season in Major League Baseball, Oh posted a 1.92 ERA, with a 2.13 FIP implying that if Seung-hwan Oh got lucky in 2016, he didn’t get that lucky. He appeared in 76 games, leading the team, while throwing 79 2⁄3 innings. Despite not inheriting the closer role from Trevor Rosenthal until late June, Oh led the Cardinals in saves in 2016 with 19.

Was what the Cardinals saw from Seung-hwan Oh in 2016 an aberration, or can the reliever, who turns 35 in July, maintain this level of performance going forward? Most projection systems believe that Oh will be worse, though still fairly effective, in 2017. You can find ZiPS projections here, Steamer projections here, and Baseball Prospectus’s (paid subscriber) Pecota projections here.

This is what you said:

Seung-Hwan Oh IP K/9 BB/9 Saves ERA FIP WAR
VEB 71 9.7 2.1 37 2.54 2.58 2.2
Steamer 65 10 2.5 36 3.2 3.14 0.9
ZiPS 65 11.3 2.1 19 2.64 2.64 1.3
PECOTA 56 10.6 2.4 20 3.47 3.45 0.8