Thanks for your help in projecting Adam Wainwright this year. This what we said when we asked for your predictions:
Adam Wainwright spent the 2016 season very much looking like a 34-year-old pitcher who hadn’t pitched in a year. He walked more hitters since his first year starting back in 2007, gave up more home runs than at any time in his career, and a ground ball rate that hovered around 50% for most of his career was way down to 44%. Add in a weak defense and some poor luck sequencing, and he ended up with an ugly 4.62 ERA.
All that said, Wainwright wasn’t terrible last season. His walks were up, but they weren’t too high. His home runs only went up to something closer than league average. His strikeout numbers weren’t great, but they weren’t terrible either. His 3.93 FIP was the worst of his career, but given the rise in offense over the last year, that number was slightly above average. With nearly 200 innings, that was good for a 2.9 fWAR.
You can find ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) on their player pages. Last season, we did not expect the amount of dropoff that we saw.
Here is what you said