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VEB 2017 Projections Results: Michael Wacha

Here are our projections

St Louis Cardinals Photo Day Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Thanks for participating. This is what we said about Michael Wacha when we asked for submissions:

Two days ago, Michael Wacha’s role was very much in question. Wacha’s struggles down the stretch the last two seasons combined with the emergence of Alex Reyes meant Wacha might very well be forced out of the rotation. All of that changed with the incredibly disappointing news that Alex Reyes would miss the 2017 season and undergo Tommy John surgery.

Michael Wacha’s path to the rotation is suddenly very clear. While Luke Weaver could assert himself and Trevor Rosenthal is a true wild card, the job is no longer Wacha’s to win, but Wacha’s to lose. His projections are out there. You can find ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) on their player pages.

This is what we all thought Wacha would do last year. Wacha managed 1.9 WAR on a decent 3.91 FIP, but his ERA was an unsightly 5.09 and he managed just 138 innings. The poor ERA can be chalked up somewhat to defense and bad luck, but it isn’t clear if Wacha can last a full season. How will he do this year?

Here’s what you said (62 responses):

Michael Wacha Starts Innings Pitched K/9 BB/9 Saves ERA FIP WAR
VEB 24 152 7.4 2.9 0 3.79 3.63 2.2
Steamer 23 129 7.5 2.9 0 4.04 4.01 1.7
ZiPS 24 138.3 7.6 2.9 0 4.16 4.00 1.8
PECOTA 24 144 7.7 2.9 0 4.24 4.58 1.3