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VEB 2017 Projections Results: Matt Carpenter

Here are the projections

Cincinnati Reds v St Louis Cardinals Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Thanks to everyone who provided projections. Here’s what we said when we asked for projections:

Pitchers and catchers have reported and many Cardinals position players are already in camp working hard. That means it is time to put you readers to work as well. Various publications have come out with projections for the Cardinals season. You can find ZiPS here, Steamer here, and Baseball Prospectus ($) on their player pages.

We will start with Matt Carpenter. After three straight years of at least 660 plate appearances, Carpenter lost time last season with a strained right oblique that cost him a month and might have led to some struggles down the stretch after an incredible start to the season.

He ended up with 566 plate appearances and 21 homers with a .271/.380/.505 slash line that was good for a 135 wRC+ and a 3.2 WAR. Carpenter should make the move full-time to first base and out of the leadoff spot as Dexter Fowler figures to assume that role. Presumably he will have more chances to drive in runs, although as the best hitter on the Cardinals, he should bat second and not third as third comes up a lot with no runners on when compared with fourth. As the best hitter on the team, he should probably bat second, providing a combination of the ability to drive runners home and set the table for other hitters to do the same.

Here are the results (155 responses):

VEB 617 25 94 95 4 .287 .378 .510 4.1
ZiPS 601 18 67 86 2 .263 .366 .452 2.5
Steamer 645 18 69 86 4 0.268 0.37 0.445 2.7
PECOTA 615 17 70 75 3 0.273 0.362 0.448 2.2