FanPost

The NL Central isn't going away

Early this season, the Cardinals made a number of transactions involving their 25-man roster, but none of them really had a strong impact on the 2017 season. Once the dust had settled though, I noticed that after extending Yadi and Piscotty and cutting bait on Matt Adams and Jhonny Peralta, the Cardinals were in a unique spot. Every single position player in the organization was under team control all the way through the 2020 season! I thought it was quirky but wasn't sure just how unique it was.

With a slow MLB offseason and also a slow day at work yesterday, I looked through Cot's Contracts (thanks Baseball Prospectus) for the rest of the NL Central and was mildly disappointed to find that, no, the Cardinals don't seem to be all that special in regard to holding players with many years of control. However, I expanded to look at the rest of MLB, and it turns out it's actually the NL Central as a whole that is unique in this regard.

My rules for this exercise were pretty straightforward. Not all players last through arbitration before being non-tendered and not all club options are picked up, but they all count as team control. I used my best judgment on player options (most are easy- Kershaw will opt-out but Heyward won't). All I was looking for were players with 3 or fewer years of control. And lastly, I designated 6 teams as "non-contending" (They are, not coincidentally, 6 of the bottom 7 teams in ESPN's end of season power rankings*). You probably understand why, but it'll be obvious shortly.

*The Orioles are the 7th team. They occupy the dreaded "non-contending but still trying very hard" bracket. Poor Baltimore.

Now, these numbers count a back-end reliever the same as an MVP candidate, and as stated earlier, many players are granted Free Agency before the end of their team control. I jotted down each player in the process of this though, and will note anything misleading. Most teams have close to the same number of interchangeable relievers on short contracts.

With that in mind, let's look at the graph!

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As you might have expected, the teams with the most short-term players are some of the best teams in the majors, and those at the bottom are mostly there because they have already sold off all short-term assets. In fact, 5 of the bottom 8 teams are non-competitive. So, let's toss out those pesky "tankers", shall we?

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I seem to have accidentally cut the Diamondbacks out of the graphic. They are all the way on the left. Refer to first graph.


Now we're looking at something. Notice those 3 teams at the far right? Curious.

  • The Cardinals control everyone on their roster but Wainwright and Wacha for the next two seasons. Yadi, Carpenter, Gyorko, and Grichuk will all likely be done as Cardinals the year after that, if not sooner for Grichuk (trade) and Gyorko (declined option).
  • The Cubs have 4 mostly important relief pieces hitting the market by 2020, followed by Hendricks and Quintana the year after.
  • Meanwhile, the Brewers lose only a couple relief arms and two bench guys until 2021, when the top of their rotation and most of their starting infield will get nice raises.
  • The Bucs, as you can see, are the only NL Central team not near the right side of the graph. They have Cutch for a year, and a handful of starters for 2. I expect they'll be selling if not at the trade deadline, at least next offseason.

I guess most people knew the Cubs' and Brewers' cores were in place for the foreseeable future, but I never stopped to realize that all 3 of these teams are pretty much the most extreme cases of this in the Major Leagues. The only free agent of consequence any of these 3 teams have anytime soon is Wacha, but hopefully Reyes, Weaver, Flaherty, and co. are in full flight by then.

Other interesting things I noticed:

  • I noticed the Angels really have been doing their best to line up their window with Trout's contract. Their 2020 Free Agent class is the single largest in baseball for the next 3 years, and it just so happens to include nearly all of their top players: Trout, Simmons, Kole Calhoun, CJ Cron, and two starting pitchers. It's the next 3 years then bust in Anaheim.

  • The NL West is incredibly competitive right now. The Giants, despite their nightmare 2017 and bloated payroll, still have some really good players signed for some time and a lot of motivation to try to win. The Dodgers' kitchen sink approach to building a rotation stands out. They could have an entirely new starting rotation in 2020. McCarthy, Kazmir, Kershaw, and Ryu have 1 year left and Hill and Wood only 2. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and Rockies each lose their MVP front-runner as well as his respective CF sidekick by 2020 (Goldschmidt, Arenado, Blackmon, Pollack).

  • The Phillies went full skeleton on their rebuild, with only 4 players due to hit FA anytime soon, none of whom are really of any consequence. The Reds have only 6, but at least have usable players hitting the market, ranging from Cozart this offseason to Scooter Gennett and Billy Hamilton in 2 more years.

  • The Braves zagged when other rebuilding teams zigged, acquiring plenty of somewhat pricey veterans in hopes of flipping them for even more prospects (at least I hope that's what they were thinking). It kinda sorta worked, as they just dumped Jim Johnson on another team for I think the second time, and they have a lot of old guys hitting the market soon.

  • David Wright hasn't played meaningful baseball in 18 months and still has 36 months left on his contract. Wow.

  • James Shields is the only player I listed as a FA before his team control is up. He has put up over 300 innings of below-replacement pitching the last 2 years and has a laughably bad $16 million option after this season.

  • That Chris Davis contract was atrocious from the start, but consider that their only other good players are the 7 that are Free Agents by 2019. He'll be standing around for another 3 years after that flirting with the Mendoza line and clogging up at bats on a rebuilding team in an almost identical situation to the Ryan Howard debacle, only without a ring to show for it or a major injury to blame it on.

  • The Indians are another team like those in the NL Central. Despite 6 impending free agents, still have their core in place for quite some time. Andrew Miller and Cody Allen are in contract years, but all their other core contributors are locked up for 3+ years.

  • Toronto's in a tough spot. It probably makes sense to give it one more ride before perhaps trying to clear house though. Donaldson, Estrada, and Happ are free agents to be and their FA class 2 years out is also mostly older veterans who fit the bill as rental acquisitions. In 3 years they have a ton of younger quality talent scheduled to hit FA though, and those are chips that have real value if you cash them before 2019.

  • Alas, the AL East appears to be back to the Red Sox and Yankees trading punches. Boston has some real talent becoming available in the next couple years, but we know they'll hit hard to recoup losses. The Yankees are mostly just shedding payroll for a while.

  • Joe Mauer has only 1 year left on his super-deal. Weird to see that.
Anyway, back to the Cardinals. In case you needed another reason that the team should consolidate its roster a bit, count this one there too. Not only is the 25-man roster pretty packed already, none of these guys are going anywhere. It's an interesting situation they're in, and more trades similar to the Matt Adams and Mike Leake cases may be forthcoming if nothing much gets done this offseason.

*Small mistakes are to be expected, as I compiled this by hand. It will also probably be outdated tomorrow, as low-win teams like ATL and TB are already trading short-term relievers to teams like LAA and ARZ.