Rather than focusing on the 2016 Cardinals, a team that seems very difficult to project in my mind, I would like to review the top players projected by each system on Fangraphs, if nothing else perhaps to guide you through some fantastical drafts this spring.
ZIPS:
wOBA
-
Bryce Harper - .430
After Bryce's monstrous standout season last year, he is projected as #1 in '16. Whether you think he plays the game right or not (if you don't, you have some peculiar notions about playing games), Bryce is thought of very highly on offense. He may not have been a superstar from the onset, but he is now.
-
Mike Trout - .410
Mike is still #1 in the American League. While he strikes out more and gets on base less overall than Harper, Trout probably has more power as well as speed, not to mention better defense. He is also a stolen base threat, which Harper is not. Many would still swear by him, but Harper appears to have better ability to put the ball into play and get on base.
-
Giancarlo Stanton - .393
I am looking for a career year from Stanton this season. The #1 power threat in major league baseball. Not going to hit for average or be nearly as elite as some at OBP, but Giancarlo is a titan with the bat. Stanton needs to be healthy this season, but I would love to see him hit 40-50 home runs this year.
-
Joey Votto - .392
Wow, Votto is still elite year after year, still ridiculously great at on base average, right up there with Harper. He has went down in power numbers as he ages a bit, but it doesn't matter when you are projected at .429 OBP. He loves to take a walk.
-
Paul Goldschmidt - .386
Not unlike Harper, tons of power as well as a stolen base threat. Only projected for 27 home runs this year, but I think he'll hit more than that.
-
Jose Bautista - .385
Proof that no player can be written off, maybe their true potential is just a tweak of a swing away. He has been an elite hitter for several seasons now, and this year is no exception. One of the premier power hitters in the game still, doesn't strike out a ton, and gets on base. Bautista would be welcome on just about any team.
-
Miguel Cabrera - .383
The real use of the DH is to keep superb hitters like Miguel Cabrera in the game longer and get them more at bats. Only a few years ago, Miggy was the elite hitter of major league baseball. Now, he is still an offensive force to be reckoned with each and every plate appearance, but he just can't do anything more than hit.
-
Chris Davis - .382
One of the players I was hoping the Cardinals would sign, but alas, many did not agree with me. The premier home run threat in MLB. I think he would be worth putting at first base for a few years, but it did not happen. 40+ home runs this year woulda been nice.
-
Andrew McCutchen - .378
Cutch is probably slightly past his peak years now, but he still has elite levels of on base %, speed, and still has some pop in the bat for sure. The Pirates will still probably be as good as he is.
-
Anthony Rizzo - .373
The first to appear from the Cubs' much vaunted offense, barely cracking the top 10. But then again, he is #6 in the NL, so that sounds a little more dangerous being that my team is in the same division. Do not want to be facing this guy, but here he is. Rizzo is just a really well rounded hitter and threat on offense in general. He can get on base, isn't slow like a lot of first basemen are, and will be guaranteed to hit some dingers, especially playing in Wrigley Field.
-
Edwin Encarnacion - .372
Edwin ended up being a far better hitter than I thought he would, sort of like Bautista lite. Time and again, he will wear down pitchers. Part of the Blue Jays insanely gifted trio on offense of Joey Bats and rising star Josh Donaldson.
-
Josh Donaldson - .371
Speaking of, Josh will be hard pressed to match what he did last season, but ZIPS still likes him quite a bit. He is a bit like Anthony Rizzo, above average at all areas of hitting and will for sure hit a good number of outside the park blasts. I'd venture to say he will probably do better than his projection too.
-
JD Martinez - .370
I must admit, I do not know who this is. He looks like he strikes out a lot and has a lot of power though. OBP projected at .340, hohum.
-
Manny Machado - .368
If you are looking for a 3rd baseman outside of Donaldson this is your guy.
-
Kris Bryant - .365
The fact this guy is entering his sophomore season this high on the list does not bode well for my team. The Cubbies 2nd hitter on the elite hitters list means the Cubs offense will most likely be better than the Cards'. All the sudden, the premier third baseman in the NL.
-
Jose Abreu - .364
Southsider Abreu was superb in his rookie season, and nothing to scoff at in his sophomore year. ZIPS thinks he has refined his approach but will have a little less power maybe. Still a great option.
-
Freddie Freeman - .364
ZIPS thinks he will only hit 21 home runs this year, but his .374 OBP is the real asset here.
-
Carlos Gonzalez - .363
Not that durable, not that good of on base average, but he can still wallop the ball outta the park pretty regularly. You can probably play him anywhere in the outfield too, which is nice.
-
David Ortiz - .362
I cannot believe this guy is still around, but he is, and is still a damn good hitter even after all these years. He is very lucky there is this thing call the DH in the mutant league.
-
Kyle Schwarber - .357
Three players are projected a hair better than Schwarber, but just for scare tactics I will put him on here, the third Cub on the list. And he could do better than Duda, Arenado, and Carter if the winds blow his way at Wrigley. Also, I had no idea that Chris Carter was now on the Brewers, not sure how I missed that. Actually Schwarber and Carter are pretty similar, lots of power and lots of K's.
But what of other projections, why should we trust just Szymborski? There are more! And it's a new ranking!
Steamer:
- Mike Trout .418
- Bryce Harper .412
- Giancarlo Stanton .395
- Miguel Cabrera .392
- Paul Goldschmidt .390
- Joey Votto .386
- Andrew McCutchen .381
- Anthony Rizzo .380
- Jose Bautista .374
- Kris Bryant .373
- Edwin Encarnacion .371
- Freddie Freeman .368
- Yasiel Puig .367
- Josh Donaldson .365
- Miguel Sano .364
- Buster Posey .363
- Prince Fielder .361
- Mookie Betts .361
- Carlos Gonzalez .360
- Jose Abreu .358
Kyle Schwarber at .353 drops out of the top 20, as do some other guys. Steamer is definitely different than ZIPS.
And to perhaps give you a more accurate picture, fangraphs blends the two projection systems together in something they call Depth Charts (its a tactic I have used for years at VEB, but with more than two systems averaged... just because it saves me a lot of time, I'll list what they list).
- Bryce Harper
- Mike Trout
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Miguel Cabrera
- Andrew McCutchen
- Jose Bautista
- Anthony Rizzo
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Chris Davis
- Kris Bryant
- Josh Donaldson
- Freddie Freeman
- Manny Machado
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Jose Abreu
- Yasiel Puig
- David Ortiz
- Buster Posey
- Miguel Sano
- Mookie Betts
- JD Martinez
- Nolan Arenado
- Justin Upton
- Kyle Schwarber
- Hanley Ramirez
- Ryan Braun
- Carlos Correa
- Michael Brantley
- George Springer
- Prince Fielder
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Lucas Duda
- Matt Carpenter .347 (projections think he will hit only 15 home runs)
- Jason Heyward .347 (projections think we lost another Matt Carpenter)
- David Peralta
- Matt Holliday .346 (but I guess we do have another Matt!)
