The Cardinal Way: Consistency and beating up on the little guy

A lot of variables go into what constitutes a successful season.  It often hinges on expectations mixed with regular season and/or postseason success.  The Cardinals were bounced from the NLDS of the 2015 playoffs by their arch-rival, but any season which ends with 100 wins is a rousing success, even for a team which has had as much recent success as the Cardinals.  And no one would call the 2006 Cardinals World Series team a failure even though they finished the regular season with just 83 wins, which was their second worst record since 2000.

But if the Cardinals pre-seasons projections turn out to be on point they are due for a disappointing year.  PECOTA has them at 81-81 and FanGraphs, while a bit more kind, still has them missing the postseason at 85-77.  Even though this team has plenty of noted question marks heading into Opening Day, I think the Cardinals are still in a position where missing out on the postseason is an automatic disappointment.  So to outperform their projections the Cardinals need to stick with what's worked for them the last few years, which is beating the teams they're supposed to beat - especially within their division - and winning steadily throughout the season.

Playing well within the division - especially versus weaker opponents

One takeaway from FanGraphs' projections is how top-heavy the National League is expected to be in 2016.  Five of the top six teams are projected to be from the NL, along with the bottom six - including the Reds and Brewers.  To compete for another NL Central title, the Cardinals need to continue to play well within the division - which does include 19 games versus the Cubs, who reign atop FanGraphs' (and everyone else's) projections - but also 38 with the Reds and Brewers.  The last three years the Cardinals and Pirates have finished first and second in the division, respectively, but only the Cardinals have done well versus the division, including the bottom feeders, each year.

Other than 2013, the Cardinals noticeably separated themselves from the Pirates by playing better against the teams they had to face the most.  From 2013-2015, the Cardinals had a winning record each year versus every division team except for when they finished 9-10 versus the Pirates in 2013.  The Pirates, on the other hand, had a losing record versus every division team in 2015 and only had a winning record versus the Cubs in 2014.

Versus the other very bad NL teams (Phillies, Braves, Rockies, Marlins) the Pirates had a 21-6 record.  But they had an NL Central problem in 2015 and had they managed just a .500 record versus the two very bad teams in the division, the Reds and Brewers, they might have been able to avoid Jake Arrieta and the play-in game.   Meanwhile, in 2015, the Cardinals got a quarter of their 100 total wins at the expense of the Reds and Brewers.  (The Cubs capitalized as well.  They went 46-30 versus the NL Central and of their 97 regular season wins, roughly 28% came from the Reds and Brewers.)

Last year the Cardinals played approximately 40% of their games versus the six worst teams in the NL mentioned above and had a 41-23 record.  In addition to the Reds and Brewers, the other four NL squads at the bottom of FanGraphs' projections in 2016 are the Rockies, Padres, Braves, and Phillies.  The Cardinals play approximately 36% of their games versus these teams in 2016, and with several very good teams projected to be in the NL it would be wise to beat them often.

Consistency

Capitalizing on weaker teams has helped the Cardinals but steadily winning games throughout the season against the entire field has been more impressive.

The Cardinals beat the Pirates 11-1 in the second game of a double-header on September 30, 2015, to clinch their third straight NL Central title.  They also more or less called it a year until the postseason began.  They rested a lot of their regulars and didn't even offer a hint of protest when swept by the Braves in the final three games of the season.  They scored a total of zero runs.

The significance of that weekend series was that it was the first time the Cardinals had been swept in a three-games or more series in over two years - since July 28, 2013, in fact, when they were swept by the Braves.  The Cardinals haven't been swept in a three-games or more series at home since May 13, 2012, when, you guessed it, they were swept by the Braves.  I'd suggest dropping the Braves from the schedule but, per above, they're expected to lose a lot of games in 2016.

More impressive, going back to July 2012, the Cardinals have not had a single losing record in any month in any season.  That's 21 straight months of .500 or better baseball.  Yes, they closed out 2015 by being swept by the Braves and all three games occurred at the beginning of October but I'm not counting that because it was only three games, and, as mentioned, they weren't really trying.

Excluding the Cardinals, if we were to separate the NL in 2015 into tiers it would probably look like this:

• Tier 1: Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets
• Tier 2: Giants, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Marlins
• Tier 3: Brewers, Rockies, Braves, Reds, Phillies.

Replicating this sort of steadiness in 2016 will be easier said than done.  For everything that went wrong in 2015, so many other things went just right.  A lot of the injuries to key contributors were countered with production from unlikely sources.  Whether it was above-projection performances from Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia to mitigate the loss of Adam Wainwright for most of the season or pleasant surprises from rookie outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, and Tommy Pham to compensate for a banged up Matt Holliday and Jon Jay (not to mention the seemingly lost and rarely-used Peter Bourjos).  If there was ever an appropriate time to use the tired "next man up" trope it was for the 2015 St. Louis Cardinals and that will be tough to replicate as well.

But as Opening Day approaches, the mission for the Cardinals to avoid a disappointing season in 2016 should still be clear: Be consistent and beat up on the little guy when you can.