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Michael Wacha: 2016 VEB Projections Results

VEB sees a slightly above average season for Michael Wacha

Craig Edwards

Editor's Note: Two years ago, Site Manager Ben Humphrey asked readers to provide predictions for Cardinals baseball players. Last year, he renewed that request, and although Ben is in blogger retirement, we at VEB renewed the request to predict how the Cardinals will do. The answers are now in.

We received 101 responses for Michael Wacha. When we requested submissions we said this:


Michael Wacha's season was really a year in three parts. In April and May, Wacha pitched fairly well, with a 3.78 FIP, but his strikeout rate was just under six per nine innings. A shiny 2.27 ERA and 7-1 win-loss record made it seem like Wacha was pitching better than he actually performed. Then, in June, July, and August, Wacha did actually pitch better. He struck out nearly a batter per inning and he walked just 2.2 hitters per nine innings. HIs ERA was a great 2.97 with an excellent 2.91 FIP to match. His last five starts of the season, Wacha appeared worn down, lasting more than five innings just once, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out (18 to 19) and giving up seven home runs in just 24 innings.

His final 2015 line looked like this:

Michael Wacha GS IP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR
2015 30 181.1 7.59 2.88 3.38 3.87 2.3

Will Michael Wacha find a bit more consistency this year? Is he the solid pitcher from the first two months of last year, the near-ace of the middle months, or are there some major concerns due to the way he finished last season? His Steamer projection can be found on his FanGraphs player page, and his ZiPS can be found here.


This is what you had to say.


The projections put Wacha very near average. VEB thinks he will be slightly above average. Full results are here. Thank you for your help.