FanPost

What’s in store for the Cardinals’ outfield in 2016

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

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There have been various debates about whether projection systems such as ZiPS and Steamer are underrating the Cardinals' outfielders for the 2016 season. Additionally, when looking at last year's partial season performances from Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham, many have argued that luck best explains their impressive stats.

To take an informed look at these claims, let's compare the past performance and projections of the Cardinals' outfielders in three statistical categories: batting average, isolated slugging, and walk percent. Also included are xAVG and xISO (these two values only appear for major league playing time as the inputs are not available for minor league play).

For those who aren't familiar with xAVG and xISO, these statistics are calculated using various batted ball inputs such as GB%, Hard%, and Pull% available on FanGraphs. The basic purpose of these stats is to figure out what a player's batting average or isolated slugging should have been based on his batted ball profile (GB%, Hard%, Pull%, etc). Keep in mind that these stats are both more descriptive than predictive meaning that they are best used to analyze past performance. That said, they can still be used to predict future performance, though they are less reliable in this regard.

Here are the most recent xBABIP and xISO formulas that have both been published by Alex Chamberlain on FanGraphs:

xBABIP = .1975 - .4383*(True IFFB%) - .0914*(True FB%) + .2594*LD% + .1822*Hard% + .1198*Oppo% + .0042*Spd

xISO = -.1396 + .1814*Pull% + .5136*Hard% + .2344*FB%

xBABIP can then be converted to xAVG using this formula:

xAVG = (HR + xBABIP*(AB - K - HR + SF)) / AB

Now let's look at each outfielder's recent major league and minor league track record and the published Steamer and ZiPS projections for 2016 to see if we can identify how much of their 2015 performance can be attributed to luck and whether we should expect them to match, exceed, or fall short of their projections.

Matt Holliday

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

277

0.279

0.290

0.131

0.145

14.1%

Last 3 Yrs - MLB

1546

0.284

0.304

0.171

0.196

11.8%

2016 - ZIPS

439

0.268

0.162

10.5%

2016 - Steamer

541

0.274

0.166

11.3%

Over the past three years Holliday has been a bit unlucky as he has underperformed his expected AVG and ISO. Of greater concern is that his xISO dropped from a three year average of .196 to .145 in 2015. This shows that his batted ball profile has become less likely to support the levels of isolated slugging he is accustomed to. It is worth noting that he increased his walk rate last year which helped a little to offset the decline in isolated slugging.

Due to his longer track record, his projections match up closely to his past performance. Because he has underperformed the expected average and isolated slugging for the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that Holliday will play closer to both his history and the projections. This would still be a valuable contribution to the overall offense, even if it is not very exciting.

With all the talk of Holliday being motivated to have a "ridiculous" year, his batted ball profile over the past three years hints at what this could potentially look like: a .304 average with a .196 ISO, and for good measure let's say that he would maintain his 14% walk rate from last year. This would indeed be a ridiculously good year. For comparison's sake, here is Holliday's 2013 batting line:

G

PA

AVG

ISO

BB%

HR

R

RBI

OBP

wRC+

WAR

141

602

0.300

0.190

11.5%

22

103

94

.389

147

4.0

Just to reiterate, I don't actually expect Holliday to return to his 2013 levels of production, instead this is what I would mark as his ceiling for 2016.

Randal Grichuk

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

350

0.276

0.259

0.272

0.239

6.3%

Last 2 Yrs - MLB

466

0.268

0.255

0.242

0.250

5.8%

AA & AAA

1014

0.257

0.225

5.5%

2016 - ZIPS

488

0.253

0.209

5.1%

2016 - Steamer

527

0.249

0.196

5.5%

The xAVG calculation confirms the consensus that Grichuk outperformed his AVG last year and should expect a decrease this year given a similar batted ball profile. The silver lining in this is that in 466 MLB plate appearances his xAVG is roughly equivalent to what he hit in over 1,000 plate appearances between AA and AAA, suggesting he should be able to at least match his minor league numbers. This makes me pretty confident in expecting him to match the batting average projection systems are putting forth for him.

Grichuk's ISO in his 466 MLB plate appearances (.242) is noticeably higher than in his combined AA and AAA plate appearances (.225). This is supported by his xISO (.250), which suggests that he could maintain the isolated slugging he has shown so far in the majors with a similar batted ball profile. The projection systems, however, are expecting an ISO around .200 (.050 lower than his MLB batted ball profile, .040 lower than his MLB performance, and .025 lower than his AA and AAA performance). Based on these numbers, it seems a safe bet that Grichuk will exceed his ISO projections and deliver more overall value than the projections anticipate.

Stephen Piscotty

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

256

0.305

0.309

0.189

0.194

7.8%

AA & AAA

1135

0.285

0.151

9.5%

2016 - ZIPS

577

0.272

0.153

7.5%

2016 - Steamer

535

0.267

0.140

7.5%

Piscotty is a bit difficult to analyze given the well-covered changes he made to his swing and approach last year. While his average in the MLB was considerably higher than what he posted in his combined AA and AAA plate appearances, his batted ball profile in those 256 MLB plate appearances suggests that he should have expected an average of .309. The same is true for his isolated slugging as his MLB ISO jumped to .189 from .151 in AA and AAA. If he maintains his batted ball profile, it is expected that he would maintain an ISO in the .190 range.

While the AVG and ISO will be interesting to follow for Piscotty, I am actually a little more curious in following his BB% this year. To go off script from the table provided above, in 372 2015 AAA plate appearances (only considering his minor league at bats after changing his swing and approach), he posted a 12.4 % walk rate. This gives me optimism that there is room for growth in his BB% this year as he had just a 7.8% walk rate in the majors last year.

Overall, Piscotty's 2016 looks especially bright as it wouldn't be unfounded for him to significantly exceed all three of his projected AVG, ISO, and BB%.

Tommy Pham

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

173

0.268

0.298

0.209

0.175

11.0%

AA & AAA

1236

0.307

0.181

10.3%

2016 - ZIPS

334

0.253

0.158

8.1%

2016 - Steamer

302

0.265

0.139

8.2%

In Pham, we are dealing with the smallest MLB sample size, but his xAVG and xISO from last year are very close to his combined AA and AAA track record. This is very encouraging as he posted an average of .307 and isolated slugging of .181 in those 1,236 AA and AAA plate appearances. If Pham maintains a similar batted ball profile this year, it is reasonable to expect a higher batting average but with a little less power than he displayed in the majors last year. Also worth noting, his MLB BB% registered at 11%, slightly above his combined AA and AAA walk rate of 10.3%.

Without much of a major league track record to work with, the projection systems spit out a line that projects significant negative regression in all three of these categories. Like Piscotty, it isn't unreasonable to expect Pham to perform well above his projections in all three of AVG, ISO, and BB%.

Brandon Moss

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

526

0.226

0.258

0.181

0.262

9.3%

Last 3 Yrs - MLB

1611

0.238

0.264

0.216

0.250

10.3%

2016 - ZIPS

492

0.237

0.207

9.6%

2016 - Steamer

404

0.240

0.205

9.7%

Moss is only the second of the profiled players with an extensive MLB track record to look at. Similar to Holliday, he has also underperformed his xAVG and xISO over the past three years. It isn't surprising to see Moss underperform his xAVG as this is common for many hitters who face frequent shifts. There isn't as handy a reason to explain his underperforming his xISO mark. In fact, Moss had the largest difference between his ISO and xISO among all players in the majors last year. That is all MLB players, not just Cardinals' outfielders. Unless his batted ball profile changes significantly for the worse, we should expect positive regression and a lot more isolated slugging from Moss in 2016.

Overall, Moss' projections line up very closely to his three year averages which represent a projected increase in his average and isolated slugging from last year. There is optimism here for Moss to have a better season than last year, but I wouldn't put him in the same category of expecting him to exceed his projections as Piscotty, Pham, and Grichuk fall into.

A glance at the departed outfielders

For those of you wondering how the outfielders leaving the Cardinals this offseason look through the same lens, here's the data:

Jason Heyward

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

610

0.293

0.295

0.146

0.135

9.2%

Last 3 Yrs - MLB

1699

0.274

0.284

0.140

0.152

10.1%

2016 - ZIPS

613

0.274

0.159

10.1%

2016 - Steamer

656

0.284

0.165

10.2%

Jon Jay

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

245

0.210

0.289

0.048

0.076

7.8%

Last 3 Yrs - MLB

1341

0.273

0.308

0.079

0.098

7.4%

2016 - ZIPS

413

0.254

0.080

7.0%

2016 - Steamer

353

0.263

0.096

7.4%

Peter Bourjos

PA

AVG

xAVG

ISO

xISO

BB%

2015 - MLB

225

0.200

0.225

0.133

0.127

8.4%

Last 3 Yrs - MLB

715

0.233

0.248

0.118

0.134

6.9%

2016 - ZIPS

246

0.225

0.133

7.3%

2016 - Steamer

228

0.228

0.131

7.4%

In losing Heyward, the Cardinals' lost more in terms of durability and consistency than outstanding offensive production. The xAVG stat is buying his improved average, but his xISO doesn't offer much optimism in improving his isolated slugging. Unless Heyward finally delivers on a much anticipated power breakthrough, the Cardinals have reason to hope they will get similar if not more offensive value out of right field in 2016 than they did from Heyward last year.

Otherwise, there isn't much to look at here. The Cardinals' outfield will return those with strong performance and high upside and will be without those with lesser outlooks. Also worth noting is that James Ramsey, the only outfielder to be traded away with Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham close to the majors, isn't looking like he will turn into an impact bat in the majors. This is roster management at its best.

What to make of all this (in which the author briefly interviews himself)

So were the young outfielders lucky last year?

I won't argue that Grichuk, Piscotty and Pham weren't lucky at all last year, but it is clear that other than Grichuk's batting average, their results can be attributed more to strong batted ball profiles than luck.

And how will the Cardinals' outfielders fare compared to their projections?

I think there is a strong case to be made for Holliday and Moss to meet their projections and for Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham to exceed their projections.

But what about the depth?

I feel just as optimistic about the depth this year as I did last year, though in a little different way. Whereas last year the outfield depth consisted of having two MLB ready outfielders at AAA, this year the depth comes in the form of quality and flexibility. All five can play LF, Grichuk and Pham can play CF, and all but Holliday can play RF. If two of Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham are injured at the same time, I expect we will see Moss shifted from first base to an outfield corner and Adams starting at first. I think it would take three of the five outfielders profiled being on the disabled list at the same time to have a significant negative impact on the offensive capabilities of the starting lineup.

What in particular should we watch for in the upcoming season?

  1. Will Holliday be a low power and high on base percentage player as he was last year or will his isolated slugging return to levels in line with the past three years?
  2. Whom and how many of the three breakout candidates (Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham) will, in fact, breakout by significantly exceeding their projections?
  3. How much will Tommy Pham play? I have to think he would be all but guaranteed a starting role on most other teams. This could turn into a situation similar to being teased with watching Carlos Martinez pitch out of the bullpen for two years.

Any final remarks?

The bottom line is that I am expecting big things from the Cardinals' outfield in 2016. All five (or four if you consider that Moss will likely start at first unless there is an injury or two) project well and three of them show legitimate breakout potential. While it would be nice to have three undisputed superstars, such is not the case for any team. With two proven, bounce-back potential veterans and three young players who have already experienced some MLB success and have breakout potential, the Cardinals' outfield is in a much better position than most teams.

Without having conducted the same analysis for every team, I think it is likely that the Cardinals' will sit comfortably among the top 10 outfields in all of baseball in 2016 when all is said and done. The optimist in me says top 5. This is probably the most excited I've been about the Cardinals' outfield in a long time.