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Stephen Piscotty: 2016 VEB Projections

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VEB Projections Project.

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Editor's Note: Two years ago, Site Manager Ben Humphrey asked readers to provide predictions for Cardinals baseball players. Last year, he renewed that request, and although Ben is in blogger retirement, we at VEB are re-renewing the request to predict how the Cardinals will do.

We will not get to every player on the 40-man roster, but we will get to most. There will not be a defined order for the players, but players most assured of playing time will go first so we can let some of Spring Training play out. We will ask for standard stats. For hitters: Plate Appearances, Home Runs, RBI (gasp!), Runs, Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, and WAR. As trying to figure wOBA on is very difficult, we will use a rough approximation based on OBP and SLG ((1.7*OBP+SLG)/3). For pitchers: Starts, Games, Innings Pitched, K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, WAR, and Saves.

Next up: Stephen Piscotty

PA HR R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
MLB 256 7 29 39 2 .305 .359 .494 .364 133 1.1
AAA 372 11 54 41 5 .272 .366 .475 .373 125 NA

By the power of Grayskull, 2015 was the year Stephen Piscotty proclaimed, "I have the power."

Last Spring, the chatter surrounding Piscotty was that he had made adjustments to his swing in an effort to tap into more power. Normally, I file "offseason adjustment" stories in the same pile as "best shape of his life" stories. But Piscotty delivered on his promise, to the tune of a nearly 100 point bump in his isolated power at AAA, which carried over to his 256 MLB PAs last season.

So the Stephen Piscotty Developed Power narrative is alive and well, and may well be true. But the story still ends with an asterisk and a footnote about small sample size. Expecting a little regression after a breakout season seems reasonable, but how much?

Piscotty's FanGraphs player page with Steamer projection can be found here while Dan Szymborski's 2016 Cardinals ZiPS can be found here.


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