Chasing the Cubs without starting over

The Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, ending what had been the longest playoff streak in MLB (that now belongs to the Dodgers, who haven't missed the postseason since 2012). If interested in streaks that remain intact, the Cardinals' four-game winning streak to end the season meant nine ongoing years of finishing ten games over .500 or better, the longest streak in MLB since the Yankees did it for a staggering 20-straight seasons from 1993-2012 (the Dodgers are currently second with five-straight such seasons). To call this season a disappointment, which it was, only reinforces just how good they have been.

Pivoting to a non-disappointing team, on Saturday night's NLCS clincher, the Cubs trotted out a lineup that bore the fruit of of their brilliant re-build. Four of the players (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora) were drafted and/or developed by the Cubs, including the likely NL MVP. Three of them (Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendricks) came by way of a trade in which they came out ahead, and the cases of Russell and Hendricks basically resemble an outright fleece. The other two (Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist) readily signed as free agents before this season because they likely knew a lot of winning lay ahead. And this says nothing of Kyle Schwarber missing nearly the entire season, or Jason Heyward and Aroldis Chapman, whose respective signing and trade could look terrible down the road yet still easily absorbable by this talented, young team.

To understand how the Cubs arrived here, their fans had to endure three-straight 5th place finishes after Theo Epstein was hired in October 2011 and a collective .412 winning percentage. This put them in position to draft Almora, Bryant, and Scharber in successive years but it also took a toll on the fan base. By 2013, the Cubs had their worst attendance numbers at home since the 1990s. Still, as the baseball world is seeing now, the Cubs organization played it perfectly. If there was an empty seat at Wrigley this year I didn't see it.

As such, the Cardinals have ceded control of the NL Central to the Cubs but they will not be doing a similar rebuild. For starters, they don't need to. The organization is fertile with young talent. Reasonable minds can differ here but it's my belief that the Cardinals can win the division in 2017. Should you bet on them? Probably not. But is it unreasonable to think that the Cubs might be due for some regression, that their pitching won't outperform their FIP quite like they did in 2016? They're going to more or less have the same outstanding defense behind them in 2017 but again, I think the answer is probably not.

Second, and this point was made in Derrick Goold's last chat, but the Cubs' window is not closing in a year or two. They're young and have plenty of money. Eight of the 11 players who took the field for them in some fashion on Saturday were under the age of 28. Competing with them in 2022 may not be much easier than 2017.

Lastly, this fan base might not handle a rebuild all that well. Missing the playoffs is fine, knowing a season is beyond hope before it begins is not. This franchise has made plenty of mistakes, not doing a better job keeping up with the Cubs last offseason perhaps being the biggest, and if they sit idly by this offseason that relationship between fan and organization which Will Leitch has compared to a public trust will rightfully begin to fray. Craig Edwards is right - the Cardinals need to make some major moves this offseason. Until then, the fact that most of us can't remember when there was no need to turn on the Cardinals game after July is not a trivial thing.

Below is a list of every team going back to 1947 and an unscientific look into who has been, well, bad the least amount of times. (Trying to nail down when the modern era of baseball began is a never-ending crusade but the year when the league first made an attempt to integrate seems like a fair place to start.)

*began play in 1961

**began play in 1962

^began play in 1977

#began play in 1979

^^began play in 1988

##began play in 1993

The Cardinals haven't finished last in 26 years, which ties the Yankees for longest last-place drought. Since 1947, that 1990 finish in the cellar is the only last place on their resume. Only the Dodgers can say the same. (And if you want to go really far back, it's the Cardinals' only last place finish since 1918.) For teams who have been active since 1947, only the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox have less fewer losing seasons. When including all 30 teams, these are still the only three teams with a better winning percentage than the Cardinals since 1947. Only once during this span (1954-1956) did the Cardinals have a losing record for three consecutive seasons, and only twice (1958-1959 and 1994-1995) did they suffer back-to-back losing seasons.

To be clear, I don't think I've heard a reasonable person argue that the Cardinals should rebuild. And there's no shame for teams who have. That the Cubs have endured 48 losing seasons in the 70 years since 1947 - on top of their title drought - and are now barnstorming through the postseason with a juggernaut of a team that comes around about once a decade sums up why the media is appropriately in overdrive for this story. Building something comparable to what's currently in Chicago should be the Cardinals' goal. Staying true to their history and trying to do it without having to endure several lost seasons is worth something, too.