/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47278378/GettyImages-489259417.0.jpg)
All three National League Central postseason teams played on Sunday, September 27, 2015.
- The St. Louis Cardinals lost by allowing seven runs in the top of the ninth to the lowly Milwaukee Brewers.
- The Chicago Cubs beat the Pittsburgh Pirates thanks in no small part to Jake Arrieta.
Rest-of-Season Records
How can the Pirates or Cubs catch the Cardinals and tie St. Louis for first place after Game 162? I resurrected the chart showing the scenarios in which this is possible. Red is the Cardinals. Yellow is the Pirates. Blue is the Cubs. As you can see, no scenario exists in which the Cubs can tie the Cardinals.
W |
L |
W% |
Final W |
Final L |
Final W% |
W |
L |
W% |
Final W |
Final L |
Final W% |
W |
L |
W% |
Final W |
Final L |
Final W% |
6 |
0 |
1.000 |
104 |
58 |
.642 |
||||||||||||
5 |
1 |
.833 |
103 |
59 |
.636 |
||||||||||||
4 |
2 |
.667 |
102 |
60 |
.630 |
||||||||||||
3 |
3 |
.500 |
101 |
61 |
.623 |
6 |
0 |
1.000 |
101 |
61 |
.623 |
||||||
2 |
4 |
.333 |
100 |
62 |
.617 |
5 |
1 |
.833 |
100 |
62 |
.617 |
||||||
1 |
5 |
.167 |
99 |
63 |
.611 |
4 |
2 |
.667 |
99 |
63 |
.611 |
||||||
0 |
6 |
.000 |
98 |
64 |
.605 |
3 |
3 |
.500 |
98 |
64 |
.605 |
||||||
2 |
4 |
.333 |
97 |
65 |
.599 |
7 |
0 |
1.000 |
97 |
65 |
.599 |
||||||
1 |
5 |
.167 |
96 |
66 |
.593 |
6 |
1 |
.857 |
96 |
66 |
.593 |
||||||
0 |
6 |
.000 |
95 |
67 |
.586 |
5 |
2 |
.714 |
95 |
67 |
.586 |
||||||
4 |
3 |
.571 |
94 |
68 |
.580 |
||||||||||||
3 |
4 |
.429 |
93 |
69 |
.574 |
||||||||||||
2 |
5 |
.286 |
92 |
70 |
.568 |
||||||||||||
1 |
6 |
.143 |
91 |
71 |
.562 |
||||||||||||
0 |
7 |
.000 |
90 |
72 |
.556 |
Playoff Odds
I included the Fangraphs playoff odds, which are rendered like this:
The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are an adaption of the coolstandings.com playoff odds originally created by Greg Agami and Sean Walsh. To generate the playoff odds we simulate each season 10,000 times.
I used the Fangraphs projection mode for the playoff odds, though there are other options. This mode "uses a combination of Steamer and ZiPS projections and the FanGraphs Depth Charts to calculate the winning percentage of each remaning game in the major league season."
Magic Numbers
I added the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs' so-called magic numbers to the graphic as well. This represents the sum of eam wins and opponent losses necessary for that team to finish ahead of the opponent in the standings. I used the following formula:
Magic Number = 162 + 1 - (Team Win Total) - (Opponent Loss Total)
As you can see, the NL Central champion—whether it's the Cardinals or Pirates—will have the league's best record and home-field advantage until they are eliminated or win the pennant. The Cardinals have already ensured finishing the year with a better record than the Mets or Dodgers. The Pirates have done the same with the Dodgers and are a victory or Mets loss from the doing the same with respect to New York. To catch and surpass St. Louis, Pittsburgh will necessarily finish with a better record than the Mets.
Correction: The original post incorrectly stated that Pittsburgh could pull within a game if they won two of three games this series. A 2-1 Pirates series win would pull them to within two games. It has been corrected.