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St. Louis Cardinals projections: At the 2015 season's three-quarter point, how have the Cards performed relative to their VEB forecasts?

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Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals played their 121st game of the season last night. That means the Cardinals have completed 74.6% of their 2015 slate of games. El Birdos face the Padres in their 122nd game tonight. Completion of that game will mark the 75.3% point of the season. Using simple rounding rules, I figure we're close enough to the three-quarter mark of the season to see how the individual Cardinals' stats compare to their preseason VEB Community projections.

First, a refresher on the preseason VEB Community projections. Every year, various publications, websites, and sabermetricians put out preseason projections for the forthcoming MLB season. They often use complex formulas with many inputs. At VEB, we've started an annual tradition of injecting the human element into projections. Rather than use a specific formula, we ask our readership to submit their predictions for Cardinals players and we calculate the average. That gives us the VEB Community projection for each player. You can view all of the 2015 VEB Community projection posts here.

You may notice that some players are not shown in this post. I excluded players who have missed the bulk of the regular season (i.e., Adam Wainwright and Matt Adams) because they aren't setting any sort of statistical pace. That being said, I've included Matt Holliday and Jon Jay since they played more than Wainwright or Big Mayo despite their multiple trips to the disabled list. This even though it's an open question whether Holliday or Jay will take more plate appearances over the remainder of the 2015 season than Adams.

We also did not do projections for relievers other than closer Trevor Rosenthal (who represents the first reliever projections we've ever done) or bench players. Consequently, Randal Grichuk, Mark Reynolds, Peter Bourjos, Pete Kozma, etc. are not featured. After the injury-plagued season the Cards have had this year, I think we're going to have to do more preseason projections next year.

Yadier Molina


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

514

60

12

68

4

.291

.343

.424

.767

.347

2015

440

30

4

47

2

.282

.319

.370

.689

.299

% or Diff.

85.6%

50.0%

33.3%

69.1%

50.0%

-.009

-.034

-.054

-.078

-.048

Kolten Wong


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

564

74

15

63

24

.276

.330

.423

.753

.339

2015

493

59

11

48

14

.257

.320

.385

.705

.310

% or Diff.

87.4%

79.7%

73.3%

76.2%

58.3%

-.021

-.010

-.038

-.048

-.029

Matt Carpenter


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

642

104

11

67

6

.294

.381

.427

.808

.371

2015

495

69

18

63

3

.264

.364

.465

.829

.358

% or Diff

77.1%

66.3%

163.6%

94.0%

50.0%

-.030

-.017

+.038

+.021

-.013

Jhonny Peralta


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

594

64

18

75

2

.271

.334

.438

.772

.347

2015

498

49

16

56

1

.284

.339

.447

.786

.339

% or Diff

83.8%

76.6%

88.9%

74.7%

50.0%

+.013

+.005

+.009

+.014

-.008

Matt Holliday


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

593

90

21

91

3

.286

.367

.464

.831

.375

2015

254

23

4

31

2

.290

.409

.420

.829

.362

% or Diff

42.8%

25.6%

19.0%

34.1%

66.7%

+.004

+.042

-.044

-.002

-.013

Jon Jay


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

480

59

4

45

7

.283

.339

.370

.709

.315

2015

191

19

1

10

0

.223

.311

.265

.576

.256

% or Diff.

39.8%

32.2%

25%

22.2%

0%

-.060

-.028

-.105

-.133

-.059

Jason Heyward


PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

wOBA

VEB

609

91

20

82

19

.283

.367

.452

.819

.364

2015

452

57

11

43

18

.285

.341

.433

.774

.334

% or Diff

74.2%

62.6%

55.0%

54.2%

94.7%

+.002

-.026

-.019

-.045

-.030

Lance Lynn


IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

W

L

VEB

201

8.17

2.91

3.19

3.34

16

9

2015

134.1

9.56

3.27

2.94

3.16

9

8

% or Diff

66.8%

+1.39

+0.36

-0.25

-0.18

56.2%

88.9%

Michael Wacha


IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

W

L

VEB

160

8.18

2.61

3.16

3.17

13

7

2015

145.1

7.74

2.23

2.85

3.18

14

4

% or Diff

90.8%

-0.44

-0.38

-0.31

+0.01

107.7%

57.1%

Carlos Martinez


IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

W

L

VEB

147

8.66

3.22

3.47

3.31

11

7

2015

142.1

9.11

3.22

2.78

3.39

12

5

% or Diff

96.8%

+0.45

+/- 0

-0.69

+0.08

109.0%

71.4%

John Lackey


IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

W

L

VEB

182

7.06

2.49

3.79

3.84

13

9

2015

165.2

6.68

2.12

2.99

3.59

10

8

% or Diff

91.0%

-0.38

-0.37

-0.80

-0.25

76.9%

88.9%

Jaime Garcia


IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

W

L

VEB

96

7.25

2.50

3.46

3.44

7

4

2015

80.2

6.36

2.12

1.79

3.13

5

4

% or Diff

84.0%

-0.89

-0.38

-1.67

-0.31

71.4%

100%

Trevor Rosenthal


G

IP

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP

SV

VEB

70

69

10.89

3.55

2.89

2.79

42

2015

55

56.1

10.07

3.04

1.44

2.12

38

% or Diff

78.6%

81.6%

-0.82

-0.51

-1.45

-0.57

90.1%

Correction: The original version of this post contained an error in Peralta's chart. It incorrectly showed Peralta's wOBA as exceeding the VEB projection by eight points rather than being eight points below it. The post's Molina chart also had the incorrect home-run percentage. The charts have been corrected.