clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Trevor Rosenthal 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

New, comments

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

Brian Kersey/Getty Images

We closer out the 2015 VEB Community projections with Trevor Rosenthal. (Get it?)

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
Rosenthal is the only reliever we included in this year's projections. Last year we didn't have a single reliever. The reason? They don't throw many innings, so their stats are incredibly volatile from year to year. On the one hand, that makes attempting to project them hard (and reliever projections comparatively less reliable than, say, a position player). On the other, it might be more fun to attempt to predict that which is hardest to forecast. So we're testing out Rosenthal this year.

I was interested in the VEB Community's relatively low appearance and IP totals. Rosenthal ended last year with 72 appearances and 70 1/3 IP after Matheny cut back significantly on his usage toward the end of the season. In 2014, Rosenthal notched 75 innings in 74 appearances. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rosenthal in the mid-70s for both appearances and innings again this year. VEB sees Matheny scaling back his usage a bit (perhaps because of Jordan Walden?).

Then there are the strikeouts. Rosenthal struck out 11.13 batters per nine innings in 2015 and 12.90 in 2014. His career K/9 is 11.76. Only ZiPS has him with more than 11 Ks per nine. VEBers foresee Rosenthal cutting almost a full strikeout off his career rate, continuing the downward trend from 2013 to 2014.

Rosenthal walked a lot of batters last season. He more than doubled his BB/9, from 2.39 in 2014 to 5.37. Not surprisingly, the various projection systems and VEBers have come down somewhere in between those to data points and closer to his career BB/9 of 3.69. Hopefully the forecasts are correct. i don't know if my heart can take another season of a closer with a 5.00+ BB/9.

From those VEB Community members who put their username to their predictions, here are the highest and lowest five submissions for the various statistical categories:

Highest 5 G:

  1. EinFesteBusch, 80
  2. Joe Schwarz, 77
  3. Cardsfan7575, 76
  4. johnorpheus, 75
  5. aggieredbird, 75
  6. ShannonIsn'tSober, 75

Lowest 5 G:

  1. TheRealAaron, 63
  2. apostle87, 64
  3. mattybobo, 65
  4. blakeford77, 66
  5. jdog55, 66

Highest 5 IP:

  1. Joe Schwarz, 82
  2. johnorpheus, 80
  3. aggieredbird, 77.2
  4. Ben Cerutti, 77
  5. As You Van Slyke it, 74

Lowest 5 IP:

  1. apostle87, 59
  2. TheReasonAaron, 63
  3. mister_manager, 64
  4. Craig Edwards, 65
  5. CrimsonStorm94, 65
  6. lightbulb, 65
  7. Hornsby74, 65

Highest 5 K/9:

  1. johnorpheus, 13.1
  2. Scott Spiezio's Soul Patch, 12.2
  3. creativereason, 12.15
  4. apostle87, 12.1
  5. jppv86, 11.9

Lowest 5 K/9:

  1. EinFesteBusch, 7.3
  2. jlh56ks, 8.0
  3. dronemc, 8.73
  4. CrimsonStorm94, 9.5
  5. Joe Schwarz, 9.5

Highest 5 BB/9:

  1. zoomzoomj88, 5.6
  2. dronemc, 4.8
  3. Cardsray, 4.6
  4. Scott Spiezio's Soul Patch, 4.1
  5. lightbulb, 4.0

Lowest 5 BB/9:

  1. johnorpheus, 2.25
  2. jlh56ks, 3.0
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 3.0
  4. TheRealAaron, 3.0
  5. apostle87, 3.02

Highest 5 ERA:

  1. dronemc, 4.11
  2. jlh56ks, 3.50
  3. TheRealAaron, 3.15
  4. ldr, 3.10
  5. creativereason, 3.10
  6. mister_manager, 3.10

Lowest 5 ERA:

  1. johnorpheus, 2.32
  2. Ben Cerutti, 2.45
  3. blakeford77, 2.49
  4. aggieredbird, 2.54
  5. As You Van Slyke it, 2.61

Highest 5 FIP:

  1. dronemc, 3.73
  2. TheRealAaron, 3.45
  3. EinFesteBusch, 3.35
  4. mister_manager, 3.28
  5. jdog55, 3.26

Lowest 5 FIP:

  1. johnorpheus, 1.51
  2. apostle87, 2.05
  3. Ben Cerutti, 2.47
  4. jppv86, 2.50
  5. Cardsfan7575, 2.51

Highest 5 Saves:

    1. aggieredbird, 54
    2. Cardsfan7575, 49
    3. Joe Schwarz, 48
    4. ldr, 47
    5. CrimsonStorm94, 45
    6. jlh56ks, 45
    7. johnorpheus, 45

Lowest 5 Saves: