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Jason Heyward 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

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Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

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It's opening day for the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Today is the last day for our unveiling of the 2015 VEB Community projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. We conclude the position players with the newest St. Louis starter: Jason Heyward.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

The VEB Community optimism for Heyward is a throwback to last season's rose-colored collective forecasts for the individual Cardinals. In terms of counting stats like Runs and RBI, the VEB Community appears to be acting on the knowledge that Heyward will not be batting leadoff like he did for Atlanta; he'll be hitting second, sandwiched between two slices of Matt. VEBers think that ought to lead to a few more tallies in the R and RBI columns for Heyward.

The batting line optimism is fueled by a high BA. VEB predicts a .283 BA for Heyward. No projection system forecasts anything higher than .269. If you subtract 14 or 20 points (depending on the system) from the VEB projected OBP or SLG, each would be pretty close to the other projection systems. So that's the question with respect to Heyward: Will his BA remain in the mid-.200s or will it rise to the high-.200s, as VEB anticipates?

Now here are the highest and lowest submissions for each of the stats we collected predictions for:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. jppv86, 700
  2. ISawRaInGibby'sRightArm, 685
  3. Bherman, 671
  4. mesohornsby, 660
  5. Craig Edwards, 655
  6. azta, 655

Lowest 5 PA

  1. redmeansgo06, 550
  2. arredbird, 560
  3. TheBaseballMan, 575
  4. TheRealAaron, 595
  5. MattR262, 600

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. johnorpheus, 120
  2. dr. howl, 111
  3. Aranathor, 110
  4. jppv86, 110
  5. Hornsby74, 102

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. ldr, 68
  2. arredbird, 70
  3. jlh56ks, 70
  4. TheBaseballMan, 74
  5. Ben Cerutti, 77

Highest 5 HR:

  1. Titus Pullo, 30
  2. jppv86, 30
  3. Cardsfan7575, 28
  4. MattR262, 28
  5. Aranathor, 27

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. AidanSonoda, 12
  2. giveml, 13
  3. lightbulb, 13
  4. arredbird, 14
  5. ldr, 15
  6. jlh56ks, 15
  7. guayzimi, 15
  8. VanHicklestein, 15

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. Aranathor, 130
  2. dr. howl, 111
  3. cardinalswsbound, 103
  4. Craig Edwards, 101
  5. johnorpheus, 100
  6. MattR262, 100
  7. jppv86, 100

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. PhillyRedbird, 50
  2. ldr, 55
  3. AidanSonoda, 60
  4. Ben Cerutti, 60
  5. The Continental, 63

Highest 5 BA:

  1. dr. howl, .325
  2. jppv86, .310
  3. lightbulb, .300
  4. MattR262, .300
  5. ISawRaInGibby'sRightArm, .297

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. AidanSonoda, .260
  2. vances law, .260
  3. Ben Cerutti, .264
  4. guayzimi, .268
  5. Joe Schwarz, .269
  6. mister_manager, .269
  7. azta, .269

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. ISawRaInGibby'sRightArm, .420
  2. Aranathor, .410
  3. jppv86, .405
  4. dr. howl, .385
  5. tocar99, .376

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. arredbird, .330
  2. vances law, .331
  3. blstrahan04, .342
  4. TheRealAaron, .345
  5. Ahuber29, .345

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. TheRealAaron, .505
  2. Aranathor, .501
  3. johnorpheus, .500
  4. jppv86, .500
  5. Titus Pullo, .480
  6. ShannonIsn'tSober, .480
  7. redmeansgo06, .480

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. giveml, .389
  2. jlh56ks, .390
  3. VanHicklestein, .400
  4. ldr, .400
  5. AidanSonoda, .400

Highest 5 SB:

  1. Hornsby74, 28
  2. jlh56ks, 25
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 25
  4. jppv86, 25
  5. dr. howl, 25

Lowest 5 SB:

  1. arredbird, 10
  2. mesohornsby, 11
  3. lightbulb, 12
  4. Ahuber29, 12
  5. tocar99, 12