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Jon Jay 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

By Ben Humphrey
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Here are the 2015 VEB Community projections for the old, new everyday St. Louis Cardinals center fielder: Jon Jay.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

PECOTA does not project wOBA. After the bad results we had during last year's VEB Community projection submissions, we don't ask for wOBA predictions from readers. So for PECOTA and VEB I used the back-of-the-napkin formula for wOBA: (1.8 x OBP) + SLG / 3. Consequently, the wOBA for the PECOTA and VEB projections is more a rough approximation than exact calculation. It appears to skew a bit high.

How badly does Jay have to hit in 2015 to get benched? If the VEB Community projections for him prove true, we may find out.

The VEB projections for Jay are the center fielder in all of his one-dimensionality. The hive mind appears to see his sky-high 2014 BABIP falling back to earth, like it did in 2013. Further, his walk rate won't shoot up too much either, which will tamp down a bit on his OBP (though it's still decent). Not surprisingly, VEBers forecast Jay to continue hitting for no power whatsoever after wrist surgery. The result? An OPS flirting with the .600s. The VEB Community is not very sanguine about Jay. I can't say that I blame them. This seems like a realistic outcome (and not even the worst realistic outcome) for Jay.

Now here are the highest and lowest submissions for each of the stats we collected predictions for:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. BaseballFriend317, 595
  2. Cardsfan7575, 590
  3. jdog55, 582
  4. Bherman, 581
  5. wyocardsfan, 576

Lowest 5 PA

  1. wmb1, 330
  2. YearOfGlad, 380
  3. jlh56ks, 400
  4. Green Baloons, 411
  5. apostle87, 415

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. dr. howl, 80
  2. Chessed, 80
  3. Cardsfan7575, 78
  4. Craig Edwards, 77
  5. blakeford77, 74

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. birdbeak, 30
  2. wmb1, 35
  3. Green Baloons, 37
  4. jlh56ks, 40
  5. Mattr262, 43

Highest 5 HR:

  1. dr. howl, 12
  2. janascii, 10
  3. guayzimi, 8
  4. lightbulb, 8
  5. jdog55, 7
  6. ShannonIsn'tSober, 7

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. mister_manager, 1
  2. birdbeak, 2
  3. Green Baloons, 2
  4. jlh56ks, 2
  5. Mattr262, 2
  6. Cardsray, 2
  7. jppv86, 2
  8. Hornsby74, 2
  9. vances law, 2
  10. CrimsonStorm, 2

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. dr. howl, 85
  2. Craig Edwards, 78
  3. Chessed, 68
  4. jppv86, 60
  5. Cardsfan7575, 59

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. birdbeak, 31
  2. mister_manager, 39
  3. Jacksonian, 39
  4. Green Baloons, 40
  5. jlh56ks, 40
  6. wmb1, 40

Highest 5 BA:

  1. ldr, .310
  2. vances law, .307
  3. dr. howl, .307
  4. BaseballFriend317, .301
  5. apostle87, .301
  6. Bherman, .301

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. jlh56ks, .270
  2. janascii, .270
  3. mister_manager, .271
  4. lightbulb, .271
  5. giveml, .273

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. ldr, .380
  2. vances law, .375
  3. zoomzoomj88, .370
  4. Bherman, .368
  5. Cardsfan7575, .366

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. janascii, .315
  2. dronemc, .317
  3. 84CardsFan, .319
  4. jlh56ks, .320
  5. wmb1, .320

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. blakeford77, .401
  2. Chessed, .401
  3. smccrillis, .400
  4. Jacksonian, .400
  5. guayzimi, .395

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. wmb1, .335
  2. giveml, .339
  3. jlh56ks, .350
  4. jppv86, .355
  5. dr. howl, .360
  6. mister_manager, .360

Highest 5 SB:

  1. janascii, 17
  2. lightbulb, 11
  3. smccrillis, 11
  4. jdog55, 11
  5. Cardsfan7575, 11
  6. dr. howl, 11

Lowest 5 SB:

  1. jlh56ks, 2
  2. Mattr262, 3
  3. Chessed, 3
  4. mister_manager, 4
  5. Jacksonian, 4
  6. giveml, 4
  7. mattybobo, 4

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