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Jhonny Peralta 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

By Ben Humphrey
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The unveiling of the 2015 VEB Community projections continues today with the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals MVP: Jhonny Peralta.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

PECOTA does not project wOBA. After the bad results we had during last year's VEB Community projection submissions, we don't ask for wOBA predictions from readers. So for PECOTA and VEB I used the back-of-the-napkin formula for wOBA: (1.8 x OBP) + SLG / 3. Consequently, the wOBA for the PECOTA and VEB projections is more a rough approximation than exact calculation. It appears to skew a bit high.

Peralta was probably the Cardinals' MVP a year ago, thanks to his great defense and very good hitting. Our projections are limited to offense so we'll focus on that aspect of his game. Peralta hit for a .263 BA (with a below-average .292 BABIP that was probably a bit unlucky) and posted a .336 OBP and .443 SLG. That slash line equaled a .779 OPS, .343 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. Making Peralta's batting stats all the more impressive is that he produced them at the age of 32.

VEB sees more of the same in 2015. The other projection systems don't.

The VEB Community projects Peralta's BA to go up (perhaps due to an uptick in BABIP), but only by nine points. The hive mind forecasts a decrease in OBP by two points and in SLG by five points. Add that together and you get a drop in OPS of seven points. So a slight drop-off that in effect works out to an offensive output almost the same as last season's. Hopefully VEBers' projections for Peralta's age-33 season are closer to the mark than PECOTA, Steamer, or Oliver.

Now here are the highest and lowest submissions for each of the stats we collected predictions for:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. jdog55, 687
  2. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, 650
  3. wyocardsfan, 645
  4. 84CardsFan, 645
  5. Jacksonian, 627

Lowest 5 PA

  1. nomar34, 550
  2. TheRealAaron, 550
  3. mattybobo, 560
  4. aggieredbird, 574
  5. jppv86, 575

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. Cardsfan7575, 89
  2. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, 85
  3. jdog55, 84
  4. wyocardsfan, 76
  5. Mattr262, 75

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. jppv86, 50
  2. jlh56ks, 50
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 50
  4. nomar34, 52
  5. vances law, 52

Highest 5 HR:

  1. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, 40
  2. GOBIRDSSSSS, 23
  3. giveml, 22
  4. jdog55, 21
  5. Cardsfan7575, 21

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. apostle87, 14
  2. wyocardsfan, 14
  3. jppv86, 15
  4. nomar34, 15
  5. ldr, 15
  6. birdbeak, 15
  7. PhillyRedbird, 15
  8. Mattr262, 15

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, 127
  2. Cardsfan7575, 98
  3. jdog55, 92
  4. TheRealAaron, 89
  5. Jacksonian, 84

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. jlh56ks, 60
  2. exacta, 64
  3. ldr, 67
  4. nomar34, 68
  5. aggieredbird, 68

Highest 5 BA:

  1. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, .330
  2. ldr, .280
  3. vances law, .280
  4. giveml, .278
  5. mister_manager, .278
  6. Jacksonian, .278

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. aggieredbird, .248
  2. PhillyRedbird, .250
  3. Mattr262, .250
  4. 84CardsFan, .259
  5. jlh56ks, .260

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, .420
  2. jdog55, .346
  3. Hornsby74, .345
  4. nomar34, .342
  5. lightbulb, .340
  6. zoomzoomj88, .340
  7. Cardsfan7575, .340
  8. jppv86, .340
  9. mister_manager, .340
  10. Jacksonian, .340
  11. vances law, .340

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. Mattr262, .310
  2. aggieredbird, .318
  3. PhillyRedbird, .320
  4. TheRealAaron, .320
  5. As You Van Slyke It, .323

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, .520
  2. CrimsonStorm94, .470
  3. 84CardsFan, .469
  4. PhillyRedbird, .460
  5. Hornsby74, .457

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. exact, .400
  2. Mattr262, .410
  3. jlh56ks, .420
  4. jdog55, .420
  5. apostle87, .422

Highest 5 SB:

  1. TheRealAaron, 8
  2. exacta, 5
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 5
  4. Mattr262, 3
  5. jlh56ks, 3
  6. apostle87, 3
  7. birdbeak, 3
  8. azta, 3
  9. nomar34, 3
  10. Jacksonian, 3
  11. IEyedGodInGibby'sRightArm, 3

Lowest 5 SB:

  1. mister_manager, 0
  2. jdog55, 1
  3. aggieredibrd, 1
  4. Cardsray, 1
  5. wyocardsfan, 1
  6. Cardsfan7575, 1

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