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John Lackey 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

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Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

For this afternoon's 2015 VEB Community projections unveiling, we move back to the mound to see how veteran John Lackey's VEB forecast compares to the spreadsheet projection systems.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
Last year, the VEB Community was optimistic about the type of season nearly every Cardinal would have, whether he was a pitcher or a position player. This year it seems that VEBers are a bit more worried about the Cards' pitchers. Lackey is the latest manifestation of such a concern.

The VEB projections forecast Lackey's K/9 and BB/9 to decline. His K rate will fall and his BB rate will rise. But the result of these two negative DIPS outcomes will be a slight lowering of Lackey's ERA from 3.82 a year ago to 3.79. (For whatever it's worth, Lackey's 2014 FIP was 3.78.) The FIP projection calls for a rise but perhaps not enough of one, depending on what his home-run rate looks like.

Also of interest is the VEB hive mind's innings-pitched total for Lackey being quite a bit lower than the majority of the other projections as well as last year's total.

From those VEB Community members who put their username to their predictions, here are the highest and lowest five submissions for the various statistical categories:

Highest 5 IP:

  1. Ben Humphrey, 208
  2. dr. howl, 205
  3. Bherman, 202
  4. apostle87, 200
  5. Glong22, 199

Lowest 5 IP:

  1. Chessed, 125
  2. Hornsby74, 128
  3. StanTheManFan, 149
  4. Smokin turkeys, 156
  5. guayzimi, 156

Highest 5 K/9:

  1. Jadey13, 8.0
  2. mattybobo, 7.8
  3. blakeford77, 7.8
  4. Cardsfan7575, 7.8
  5. Glong22, 7.8

Lowest 5 K/9:

  1. 84CardsFan, 5.1
  2. Hornsby74, 5.21
  3. Chessed, 6.0
  4. DisplacedCardsFan, 6.0
  5. Rdchris85, 6.1

Highest 5 BB/9:

  1. RDChris85, 4.7
  2. Chessed, 4.0
  3. giveml, 3.6
  4. Cardsfan7575, 3.6
  5. smilingbob14, 3.4

Lowest 5 BB/9:

  1. dr. howl, 1.89
  2. hangingfromatree, 1.9
  3. Glong22, 1.9
  4. Joe Schwarz, 2.0
  5. smccrillis, 2.0
  6. Hungry Jack, 2.0

Highest 5 ERA:

  1. The Continental, 4.77
  2. RDChris85, 4.35
  3. StanTheManFan, 4.33
  4. Bherman, 4.24
  5. Chessed, 4.21

Lowest 5 ERA:

  1. zcards55, 3.46
  2. Joe Schwarz, 3.50
  3. blakeford77, 3.51
  4. nomar34, 3.52
  5. As You Van Slyke It, 3.53

Highest 5 FIP:

  1. RDChris85, 4.67
  2. StanTheManFan, 4.44
  3. Chessed, 4.40
  4. The Continental, 4.39
  5. giveml, 4.36

Lowest 5 FIP:

  1. zcards55, 3.43
  2. smccrillis, 3.50
  3. TheRealAaron, 3.55
  4. hangingfromatree, 3.56
  5. ISawDharmaInGibby'sRightArm, 3.60
  6. apostle87, 3.60
  7. Glong22, 3.60

Highest 5 Pitching "Wins":

  1. Green Baloons, 16
  2. TheRealAaron, 15
  3. apostle87, 15
  4. Glong22, 15
  5. Cardsfan7575, 15
  6. jppv86, 15
  7. dr. howl, 15
  8. jlh56ks, 15
  9. nomar34, 15
  10. DisplacedCardsFan, 15

Lowest 5 Pitching "Wins":

  1. Chessed, 6
  2. Hornsby74, 7
  3. StanTheManFan, 7
  4. As You Van Slyke It, 11
  5. lightbulb, 11
  6. birdbeak, 11
  7. Smokin Turkeys, 11
  8. mister_manager, 11
  9. guayzimi, 11
  10. The Continental, 11

Highest 5 Pitching "Losses":

  1. Chessed, 12
  2. 84CardsFan, 11
  3. wyocardsfan, 11
  4. hangingfromatree, 11
  5. janascii, 11
  6. dr. howl, 11

Lowest 5 Pitching "Losses":

  1. Hornsby74, 6
  2. Smokin Turkeys, 6
  3. mattybobo, 6
  4. Glong22, 6
  5. Green Baloons