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Kolten Wong 2015 projections: VEB vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

By Ben Humphrey
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The unveiling of the 2015 VEB Community projections continues today. We're going to the keystone to see how the VEB collective forecast for Kolten Wong compares to the projection systems.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

PECOTA does not project wOBA. After the bad results we had during last year's VEB Community projection submissions, we don't ask for wOBA predictions from readers. So for PECOTA and VEB I used the back-of-the-napkin formula for wOBA: (1.8 x OBP) + SLG / 3. Consequently, the wOBA for the PECOTA and VEB projections is more a rough approximation than exact calculation. It appears to skew a bit high.

As spring training was ramping up, I wrote a post on Matt Adams and Kolten Wong. They are the two youngest Cardinals position players. They also have the shortest MLB track records among the likely everyday St. Louis players. This lack of track record, I wrote, meant that they had more breakout potential than any other Cardinals hitters. I then looked at what ZiPS projected as the percentage odds for a handful of statistical categories. Left unanswered is what exactly a Wong breakout might look like. Until today.

The VEB projection for Wong is a breakout projection. A .276 BA, .330 OBP, and .423 SLG are head and shoulders above his 2014 rookie line of .249/.292/.388. Once again, VEB is drawing from a player's minor-league performance. As a farmhand, Wong posted a cumulative .305/.367/.451 slash line over parts of four seasons. VEB has struck a middle ground between Wong's minor-league numbers and his rookie season. In doing so, the VEB Community have staked out by far the most optimistic 2015 forecast for Wong.

Now here are the highest and lowest submissions for each of the stats we collected predictions for:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. guayzimi, 719
  2. jdog55, 685
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 650
  4. Craig Edwards, 642
  5. mister_manager, 621

Lowest 5 PA

  1. the glove, 410
  2. Bherman, 491
  3. Aranathor, 500
  4. VanHicklestein, 500
  5. grammer, 502

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. dr. howl, 111
  2. vances law, 97
  3. the glove, 92
  4. guayzimi, 92
  5. blstrahan04, 91

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. VanHicklestein, 50
  2. jppv86, 50
  3. Joe Schwarz, 55
  4. ldr, 58
  5. nomar34, 59

Highest 5 HR:

  1. 11xChampsx11, 22
  2. jppv86, 20
  3. ldr, 18
  4. Tuning in from Korea, 18
  5. mattr262, 18
  6. dr. howl, 18

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. lightbulb, 8
  2. Jacksonian, 9
  3. StanTheManFan, 9
  4. VanHicklestein, 10
  5. Bherman, 11
  6. Hornsby, 11

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. dr. howl, 111
  2. 11xChampsx11, 87
  3. Craig Edwards, 83
  4. mattr262, 83
  5. YearOfGlad, 79

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. VanHicklestein, 40
  2. Glong22, 44
  3. birdbeak, 50
  4. nomar34, 50
  5. jlh56ks, 50

Highest 5 BA:

  1. guayzimi, .307
  2. smccrillis, .290
  3. jdog55, .289
  4. Craig Edwards, .288
  5. Hornsby, .287

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. Bherman, .252
  2. mattybobo, .258
  3. VanHicklestein, .260
  4. birdbeak, .262
  5. azta, .262
  6. zoomzoomj88, .262

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. 11xChampsx11, .368
  2. guayzimi, .364
  3. Cardsfan7575, .349
  4. jdog55, .348
  5. mattr262, .345

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. Berhman, .291
  2. 84CardsFan, .300
  3. jlh56ks, .300
  4. zoomzoomj88, .302
  5. birdbeak, .308
  6. dr. howl, .308

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. YearOfGlad, .479
  2. Cardsfan7575, .455
  3. smccrillis, .440
  4. mattr262, .440
  5. 84CardsFan, .437

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. birdbeak, .300
  2. the glove, .351
  3. Tuning in from Kotea, .379
  4. jlh56ks, .380
  5. VanHicklestein, .380
  6. Jadey13, .380

Highest 5 SB:

  1. Tuning in from Korea, 33
  2. nomar34, 32
  3. Glong22, 31
  4. jlh56ks, 30
  5. jppv86, 30
  6. Tye Abell, 30

Lowest 5 SB:

  1. YearOfGlad, 13
  2. VanHicklestein, 15
  3. the glove, 16
  4. Jacksonian, 17
  5. Hornsby, 18
  6. dr. howl, 18
  7. apostle87, 18
  8. mattr262, 18

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