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Yadier Molina: 2015 VEB Community projections vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

By Ben Humphrey
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

From the mound to behind the plate. The 2015 VEB Community projections unveiling continues with catcher Yadier Molina.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

PECOTA does not project wOBA. After the bad results we had during last year's VEB Community projection submissions, we don't ask for wOBA predictions from readers. So for PECOTA and VEB I used the back-of-the-napkin formula for wOBA: (1.8 x OBP) + SLG / 3. Consequently, the wOBA for the PECOTA and VEB projections is more a rough approximation than exact calculation.

The Cardinals' backstop spent a good chunk of 2014 on the disabled list after tearing ligaments in his thumb while sliding. The injury required corrective surgery. After Molina returned from the DL, he didn't hit very well and had very little pop.

Yadi finished 2014 with a .282 BA, .333 OBP, and .386 SLG. All were his lowest in those offensive categories since 2010. With Molina entering his age-32 season, it's heartening that ZiPS and PECOTA back up the notion that Molina will bounce back in 2015 in getting on base and slugging.

Now here are the highest and lowest submissions for each of the stats we collected predictions for:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. CrimsonStorm94, 600
  2. DisplacedCardsFan, 600
  3. BaseballFriend317, 589
  4. dr. howl, 582
  5. blstrahan04, 580

Lowest 5 PA

  1. VanHicklestein, 400
  2. blakeford77, 415
  3. Chessed, 425
  4. zipperz, 438
  5. zcards55, 456

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. dr. howl, 82
  2. The Glove, 78
  3. Arabicabeanathor, 78
  4. PhillyRedbird, 78
  5. Cardsfan7575, 70
  6. vances law, 70
  7. blstrahan04, 70

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. VanHicklestein, 40
  2. ThreeYards, 40
  3. zipperz, 46
  4. BaseballFriend317, 47
  5. birdbeak, 48

Highest 5 HR:

  1. Arabicabeanathor, 19
  2. The Glove, 18
  3. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 17
  4. PhillyRedbird, 17
  5. ThreeYards, 15
  6. jdog55, 15
  7. axles, 15
  8. mattybobo, 15
  9. Cardsfan7575, 15

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. Chessed, 6
  2. 84CardsFan, 7
  3. BaseballFriend317, 8
  4. birdbeak, 8
  5. Tye Abell, 8
  6. RDChris, 8
  7. Cardsray, 8

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. Arabicabeanathor, 98
  2. PhillyRedbird, 88
  3. dr. howl, 87
  4. ISawGandhiInGibby'sRightArm, 84
  5. YearOfGlad, 83
  6. The Glove, 83

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. Chessed, 42
  2. zipperz, 48
  3. birdbeak, 49
  4. VanHicklestein, 50
  5. ldr, 54

Highest 5 BA:

  1. Cardsfan7575, .312
  2. lightbulb, .311
  3. indakind, .310
  4. apostle87, .308
  5. ShannonIsn'tSober, .307

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. TheRealAaron, .270
  2. blstrahan04, .272
  3. BaseballFriend317, .274
  4. Chessed, .275
  5. VanHicklestein, .275
  6. 84CardsFan, .275
  7. jlh56ks, .275

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. ThreeYards, .389
  2. Cardsfan7575, .382
  3. ISawGandhiInGibby'sRightArm, .370
  4. DisplacedCardsFan, .365
  5. Bherman, .363

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. The Glove, .301
  2. Chessed, .302
  3. BaseballFriend317, .309
  4. blstrahan04, .312
  5. 84CardsFan, .319

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. Cardsfan7575, .499
  2. TheBaseballMan, .487
  3. PhillyRedbird, .485
  4. ISawGandhiInGibby'sRightArm, .485
  5. jdog55, .473

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. Chessed, .345
  2. The Glove, .357
  3. wmb1, .360
  4. guest, .370
  5. dr. howl, .372

Highest 5 SB:

  1. YearOfGlad, 15
  2. ThreeYards, 10
  3. jppv86, 10
  4. Tuning in from Korea, 9
  5. wmb1, 8
  6. wyocardsfan, 8

Lowest 5 SB:

  1. CrimsonStorm94, 0
  2. mister_manager, 0
  3. birdbeak, 1
  4. 84CardsFan, 1
  5. BaseballFriend317, 1
  6. smilingbob14, 1
  7. zcards55, 1
  8. smccrillis, 1

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