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After unveiling the 2015 VEB Community projections for two position players (the Matts Holliday and Carpenter) yesterday, we start things off today with a pitcher. That pitcher is burly righty Lance Lynn, who is coming off a career year.
As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:
- VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
- ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
- Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
- Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
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The spreadsheet projection systems don't see Lynn maintaining his low ERA from a season ago. Neither does VEB. No forecast has Lynn posting a sub-3.00 ERA. VEB's 3.19 ERA is the lowest.
VEBers also don't see Lynn rebounding to show the strikeout form he did in 2012 and 2013 compared to ZiPS, Oliver, and PECOTA. The VEB collective also forecasts Lynn to continue reducing his walk rate.
Highest 5 IP:
- smilingbob14, 235
- Chessed, 220
- dr. howl, 218
- apostle87, 217
- Cardsfan7575, 215
- aswb83, 215
- RDChris85, 215
Lowest 5 IP:
- vances law, 175
- guayzimi, 178
- Robth, 180
- lightbulb, 181
- flood, 181
Highest 5 K/9:
- Bherman, 9.1
- wmb1, 9.0
- apostle87, 8.9
- Glong22, 8.83
- TheRealAaron, 8.8
Lowest 5 K/9:
- sammystl5, 5.0
- RDChris85, 6.7
- Cardsfan7575, 7.0
- mattr262, 7.5
- jlh56ks, 7.5
Highest 5 BB/9:
- RDChris85, 4.3
- blakeford77, 3.8
- Smokin Turkeys, 3.5
- BaseballFriend317, 3.5
- wmb1, 3.5
Lowest 5 BB/9:
- TheRealAaron, 1.2
- dr. howl, 1.9
- sammystl5, 2.0
- Glong22, 2.04
- Cardsfan7575, 2.1
- ArkansasTravs, 2.1
- 84CardsFan, 2.1
Highest 5 ERA:
- RDChris85, 4.23
- lightbulb, 3.70
- Craig Edwards, 3.67
- The Continental, 3.50
- hangingfromatree, 3.48
- blakeford77, 3.48
Lowest 5 ERA:
- BaseballFriend317, 2.55
- smilingbob14, 2.65
- StanTheManFan, 2.78
- TheBaseballMan, 2.83
- sammystl5, 2.89
- Cardsfan7575, 2.89
- mattr262, 2.89
- jdog55, 2.89
Highest 5 FIP:
- RDChris85, 4.65
- ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 3.84
- ldr, 3.70
- lightbulb, 3.70
- indakind, 3.68
Lowest 5 FIP:
- TheRealAaron, 2.95
- sammystl5, 3.00
- ShannonIsn'tSober, 3.05
- Cardsfan7575, 3.09
- wyocardsfan, 3.10
- DisplacedCardsFan, 3.10
Highest 5 Pitching "Wins":
- Bherman, 21
- apostle87, 20
- dr. howl, 20
- Hornsby74, 19
- Cardsfan7575, 18
- Milt Thompson, 18
- Joe Schwarz, 18
- nomar34, 18
- Chessed, 18
- ArkansasTravs, 18
- ldr, 18
Lowest 5 Pitching "Wins":
- lightbulb, 11
- guayzimi, 12
- zoomzoomj88, 13
- ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 13
- RDChris85, 13
Highest 5 Pitching "Losses":
- zoomzoomj88, 12
- Chessed, 12
- ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 11
- Smokin Turkeys, 11
- hangingfromatree, 11
- Free Mark Whiten, 11