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Matt Carpenter: 2015 VEB Community projections vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

How will St. Louis Cardinals leadoff man Matt Carpenter perform in 2015? Let's have a look at how the VEB Community projections compare to ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, and Oliver to find out. Here how the color-coding works on the graphic:

  • Red: VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • Green: PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • Blue: ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Purple: Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Orange: Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)

After last year, we did not ask for wOBA from VEBers for this year's projections. PECOTA does forecast wOBA. For VEB and PECOTA, I used the rough, back-of-the-napkin wOBA formula of (1.8 x OBP) + SLG / 3.

The VEB Community is returning to its rose-colored projection tendencies with Carpenter.

In 2013, Carpenter put together an MVP-caliber batting season. He scored 126 runs, swatted 11 homers, drove in 78 runs, hit for a .318 average, got on base at a .392 clip, and slugged .481 en route to an .873 OPS and .381 wOBA. Last season, Carpenter fell back to earth. He posted a .272/.375/.375 (.750 OPS, .339 wOBA), with 99 runs scored, 59 RBI, and 8 dingers. VEB sees Carpenter bouncing back in 2015.

Collectively, VEB projects Carpenter for a .294 BA (+22 from 2014), .381 OBP (+6), .427 SLG (+48). It appears as if VEBers have bought into the Matt Holliday-driven spring talking points that, if the team is more aggressive, they will hit for more power (Carpenter in particular). In fact, VEB forecasts Carpenter to find the sweet spot between patience and power. While nowhere near the stratospheric levels of Carpenter's 2013 season, VEB predicts he will outperform his 2014 numbers, with fewer walks and more power.

Now here are the highest and lowest five registered VEB Community member submissions for each stat:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 750
  2. CrimsonStorm94, 725
  3. Cardsfan7575, 715
  4. mister_manager, 715
  5. Rhendricks, 712
  6. jdog55, 712

Lowest 5 PA:

  1. smccrillis, 150
  2. Aranathor, 550
  3. pedrocerrano, 574
  4. TheRealAaron, 575
  5. RDChris85, 575

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. Matt Carpenter's Beard Uses Just for Men, 130
  2. dr. howl, 123
  3. zipperz, 122
  4. Hornsby74, 118
  5. PhillyRedbird, 115
  6. janascii, 115
  7. kremaflave, 115
  8. wmb1, 115

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. guayzimi, 81
  2. creativereason, 82
  3. TheRealAaron, 85
  4. smilingbob14, 89
  5. tehzachatak, 90
  6. Tye Abell, 90

Highest 5 HR:

  1. Milt Thompson, 19
  2. dr. howl, 19
  3. Matt Carpenter's Beard Uses Just for Men, 19
  4. wmb1, 18
  5. YearOfGlad, 17

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. Jacksonian, 8
  2. Chessed, 8
  3. BirdsOnTheBat13, 8
  4. Ben Cerutti, 9
  5. Aranathor, 9
  6. Jadey13, 9
  7. RDChris85, 9
  8. bgonty55, 9
  9. jakab11, 9
  10. BixbyCard, 9
  11. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 9
  12. kremaflave, 9

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. dr. howl, 111
  2. Matt Carpenter's Beard Uses Just for Men, 99
  3. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 87
  4. jppv86, 85
  5. Milt Thompson, 83

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. smilingbob, 45
  2. TheRealAaron, 50
  3. Green Baloons, 51
  4. Glong22, 54
  5. RDChris85, 57

Highest 5 BA:

  1. Hornsby74, .329
  2. smilingbob14, .319
  3. YearOfGlad, .315
  4. JackH13, .314
  5. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, .312

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. BixbyCard, .275
  2. bgonty55, .278
  3. BirdsOnTheBat13, .279
  4. jlh56ks, .280
  5. ldr, .280
  6. VanHicklestein, .280

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. pop24, .457
  2. Matt Carpenter's Beard Uses Just for Men, .430
  3. pedrocerrano, .424
  4. JackH13, .412
  5. Hornsby74, .402

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. blstrahan04, .350
  2. dr. howl, .359
  3. hangingfromatree, .363
  4. TimeWastingSlacker, .368
  5. Craig Edwards, .368

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. pedrocerrano, .512
  2. YearOfGlad, .503
  3. Hornsby74, .501
  4. Cardsfan7575, .484
  5. jdog55, .479

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. BaseballFriend317, .371
  2. jlh56ks, .380
  3. BixbyCard, .390
  4. ldr, .390
  5. Robth, .390