clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Matt Holliday: 2015 VEB Community projections vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, & Oliver

New, comments

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The unveiling of the 2015 VEB Community projections rolls on. With one Matt down (Adams), I thought it best to get to the other Matts. So the second set of Matt projections are those for Matt Holliday.

As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
The VEB Community projections for Holliday appear to forecast a resurgence in the left fielder's Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). As we discussed when reviewing the 2014 Holliday projections after the close of the 2014 season, ZiPS forecast a drop in Holliday's consistently high BABIP for a couple years in a row and it didn't happen. Until last year. Holliday's BABIP dipped to MLB average levels and his BA followed suit. Now the spreadsheet projection systems have all grouped around ZiPS for Holliday's BA. ZiPS forecasts a .304 BABIP for Holliday in 2015, which would be slightly above average; Steamer, .306. I don't know about Oliver or PECOTA. But all four have Holliday's BA in the .262-.277 so their respective BABIPs are presumable in the .292-.308 range. VEB, on the other hand, forecasts Holliday to hit for a .286 BA, which indicates that VEBers think Holliday's BABIP will jump a bit higher, closer to his career .338 BABIP but not all that close to his career rate. I think that's a fair prediction.

I found it interesting that PECOTA and ZiPS forecast Holliday to hit for more power than VEB. PECOTA projects Holliday to post a .182 Isolated Power (ISO) this year; ZiPS, .180. VEBers forecast Holliday to post a .178 ISO. About the same (which isn't surprising, given PECOTA and VEB projecting 21 homers for Holliday). I guess PECOTA and ZiPS see a few more doubles than VEB. Steamer (.174) projects Holliday to hit for more power than he did 2014 while Oliver (.154) forecasts a continued decline in that regard.

Among VEBers who submitted their usernames with their projections, here are the highest and lowest five for each stat:

Highest 5 PA:

  1. CrimsonStorm94, 700
  2. apostle87, 685
  3. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 675
  4. Bherman, 672
  5. Glong22, 668

Lowest 5 PA

  1. smccrillis, 140
  2. SBOTB, 404
  3. AAA, 450
  4. RDChris85, 457
  5. guscards, 498

Highest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. BaseballFriend317, 112
  2. The Big Toe, 106
  3. Acarron, 100
  4. StanTheManFan, 100
  5. wmb1, 100

Lowest 5 Runs Scored:

  1. jimbabwe84, 64
  2. TheRealAaron, 65
  3. jlh56ks, 70
  4. CrimsonStorm94, 70
  5. guayzimi, 71

Highest 5 HR:

  1. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 30
  2. axles, 27
  3. CrimsonStorm94, 25
  4. dr. howl, 25
  5. smilingbob14, 24
  6. Joe Schwarz, 24
  7. cards675, 24
  8. Milt Thompson, 24
  9. wyocardsfan, 24
  10. flood, 24
  11. Fredtastical, 24
  12. The Big Toe, 24

Lowest 5 HR:

  1. mattr262, 14
  2. guscards, 16
  3. giveml, 17
  4. jakab11, 17
  5. DisplacedCardsFan, 18
  6. Jadey13, 18
  7. zoomzoomj88, 18
  8. wmb1, 18
  9. BaseballFriend317, 18

Highest 5 RBI:

  1. Aranathor, 117
  2. The Big Toe, 107
  3. STLCards2, 105
  4. Fredtastical, 105
  5. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, 104

Lowest 5 RBI:

  1. giveml, 76
  2. birdbeak, 76
  3. BaseballFriend317, 78
  4. YearOfGlad, 78
  5. avs18fan, 78

Highest 5 BA:

  1. The Big Toe, .321
  2. smilingbob14, .319
  3. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, .313
  4. wmb1, .303
  5. Joe Schwarz, .301

Lowest 5 BA:

  1. mattr262, .265
  2. BaseballFriend317, .269
  3. zoomzoomj88, .270
  4. The Continental, .270
  5. Jacksonian, .270
  6. StanTheManFan, .270

Highest 5 OBP:

  1. flood, .465
  2. SBOTB, .398
  3. Milt Thompson, .390
  4. ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm, .390
  5. The Big Toe, .390

Lowest 5 OBP:

  1. Con, .311
  2. BaseballFriend317, .323
  3. NWRedbird, .330
  4. blstrahan04, .333
  5. dr. howl, .333

Highest 5 SLG:

  1. dr. howl, .540
  2. The Big Toe, .540
  3. smilingbob14, .510
  4. Jacksonian, .498
  5. 84CardsFan, .498
  6. Milt Thompson, .498

Lowest 5 SLG:

  1. con, .375
  2. AAA, .375
  3. mattr262, .400
  4. jimbabwe84, .410
  5. giveml, .413