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On Sunday, we revealed the 2015 VEB Community projections for Carlos Martinez. Jaime Garcia's unfortunate case of arm fatigue has seemingly made the contest for to become the St. Louis Cardinals' No. 5 starter a two-man competition between Martinez and lefty Marco Gonzales. So I thought it would be appropriate to unveil the 2015 VEB Community projections for Marco Gonzales today.
As a reminder, we're looking at the following projections:
- VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
- ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
- Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
- Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)
Here are the appearances vs. games started projections for each system:
- Steamer: 41 G, 6 GS
- VEB: 39 G, 9 GS
- PECOTA: 26 G, 13 GS
- ZiPS: 22 G, 18 GS
- Oliver: 16 G, 13 GS
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The projection systems generally like Martinez to have a better 2015 season than Gonzales. The VEB Community in particular does:
- IP: Martinez, 147; Gonzales, 97
- K/9: Martinez, 8.66; Gonzales, 7.34
- BB/9: Gonzales, 2.78; Martinez, 3.22
- ERA: Martinez, 3.47; Gonzales, 3.65
- FIP: Martinez, 3.31; Gonzales, 3.80
Highest 5 IP:
- ISawGibbyInGibby'sRightArm, 135
- amiesner, 135
- Hungry Jack, 125
- blakeford77, 112
- jppv86, 110
- jlh56ks, 110
Lowest 5 IP:
- Bherman, 44
- ldr, 75
- grammer, 76 1/3
- guayzimi, 78
- mattybobo, 80
- lightbulb, 80
Highest 5 K/9:
- grammer, 9.71
- Aranathor, 8.9
- ameisner, 8.5
- Bherman, 8.3
- Ben Cerutti, 8.3
Lowest 5 K/9:
- jdog55, 4.82
- Cardsfan7575, 5.6
- jlh56ks, 6
- Horsnby, 6.3
- zoomzoomj88, 6.8
- wyocardsfan, 6.8
Highest 5 BB/9:
- vances law, 4.2
- ldr, 4
- wyocardsfan, 3.8
- jdog55, 3.53
- zoomzoomj88, 3.3
Lowest 5 BB/9:
- dr. howl, 1.7
- Cardsfan7575, 2
- Hornsby74, 2.1
- ISawGibbyInGibby'sRightArm, 2.1
- Bherman, 2.2
Highest 5 ERA:
- monkeysareblue, 4.50
- lightbulb, 4.40
- Green Baloons, 4.01
- vances law, 4.01
- Bherman, 3.99
Lowest 5 ERA:
- amiesner, 3.08
- Aranathor, 3.24
- jdog55, 3.32
- grammer, 3.38
- Ben Cerutti, 3.43
Highest 5 FIP:
- ldr, 4.50
- Bherman, 4.40
- monkeysareblue, 4.34
- vances law, 4.25
- zoomzoomj88, 4.15
Lowest 5 FIP:
- Aranathor, 3.20
- amiesner, 3.22
- Craig Edwards, 3.34
- dr. howl, 3.37
- Ben Cerutti, 3.39
Highest 5 Pitching "Wins":
- Hungry Jack, 11
- dr. howl, 10
- amiesner, 9
- Cardsfan7575, 8
- Ben Cerutti, 7
- wyocardsfan, 7
- jlh56ks, 7
- balkeford77, 7
- Jacksonian, 7
Lowest 5 Pitching "Wins":
- grammer, 2
- mattybobo, 3
- jdog55, 4
- jppv86, 4
- Bherman, 4
Highest 5 Pitching "Losses":
- wyocardsfan, 9
- jlh56ks, 7
- Hungry Jack, 7
- jppv86, 6
- Bherman, 6
- birdbeak, 6
- blakeford77, 6
- dr. howl, 6
Highest 5 Games Pitched:
- jdog55, 85
- grammer, 63
- Craig Edwards, 58
- azta, 55
- Cardsfan7575, 55
- ldr, 55
Lowest 5 Games Pitched:
- dr. howl, 10
- Ben Cerutti, 19
- Horsnby74, 20
- mattybobo, 20
- Green Baloons, 22
Highest 5 Games Started:
- Hungry Jack, 20
- Ben Cerutti, 19
- amiesner, 16
- birdbeak, 16
- jlh56ks, 15
Lowest 5 Games Started:
- Bherman, 2
- guayzimi, 2
- grammer, 2
- Aranathor, 3
- azta, 4
- Craig Edwards, 4