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Carlos Martinez: 2015 VEB Community projections vs. ZiPS, PECOTA, Steamer, and Oliver

Every year, MLB projections are released. They are based on regression formulas with various inputs. At VEB, we've decided to add a human element to the MLB forecasts. We collect stat predictions for various Cardinals players from the VEB Community at large, average them together, and then compare them to the math-based projection systems.

By Ben Humphrey
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Today we're taking a look at the 2015 VEB Community projection results for righthander Carlos Martinez. Martinez has made eight starts in his major-league career and tallied 117 2/3 innings total. If Martinez beats out Marco Gonzales for the fifth-starter spot in the St. Louis rotation, this will be his first season as a full-time starter. Given Martinez's low IP total in the majors and short track record as a big-leaguer (and even shorter one as a major-league starter), it's not surprising that the various projection systems have wide-ranging forecasts for him this 2015 season.

The following graphic compares the 2015 Martinez projections from the following:

  • VEB (an average of the VEB Community projection submissions)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus, using their weighted means spreadsheet)
  • ZiPS (by Dan Szymborski and available for free at Fangraphs and a downloadable spreadsheet)
  • Steamer (freely viewable on Fangraphs)
  • Oliver (by Bill Cartwright and freely downloadable)


Compared to Adam Wainwright or even Michael Wacha (who, like Martinez, has not pitched in the majors very long), Martinez has a lot of variance. PECOTA is very down on him. ZiPS, on the other hand, is rather optimistic (especially for ZiPS). Oliver isn't very bullish on Martinez's IP total or K/9 but foresees good run prevention and a decent FIP. Steamer is more negative when it comes to run prevention.

As an initial matter, the IP total indicates that VEB sees Martinez as a starter, probably for the entirety of 2015. (It's worth noting that most of the submissions were before Garcia took the lead in the fifth starter derby and his Saturday injury.)

The VEB Community has a sunny outlook on Martinez, except when it comes to walks. Martinez had a 3.20 BB/9 in the minors and has walked 3.4 batters per nine innings in the majors. VEB projects Martinez to continue to walk batters. The flip side of the VEB fielding-independent coin is the strikeout rate. VEB sees Martinez striking out a heck of a lot of opposing batsmen—8.66 per nine innings. For context: 19 starting MLB pitchers had a K/9 higher than 8.66 in 2014. Between relief work and starting, Martinez has posted an 8.3 K/9 as a big-leaguer and struck out 9.2 batters per nine innings. Once again, VEB projects a rate stat in between his minor- and major-league number.

From those VEB Community members who put their username to their predictions, here are the highest and lowest five submissions for the various statistical categories:

Highest 5 IP:

  1. dr. howl, 185
  2. jlh56ks, 180
  3. ShannonIsn'tSober, 174
  4. Jacksonian, 169 2/3
  5. Glong22, 169
  6. Craig Edwards, 168 (I know this is supposed to be the highest five, but Craig is so close I included him)

Lowest 5 IP:

  1. mattr262, 85
  2. dronemc, 87
  3. VanHicklestein, 110
  4. azta, 118
  5. Ben Cerutti, 125

Highest 5 K/9:

  1. mattr262, 12
  2. Chessed, 11
  3. blakeford77, 10.5
  4. YearOfGlad, 10.2
  5. StanTheManFan, 9.7

Lowest 5 K/9:

  1. BaseballFriend317, 6.9
  2. The Glove, 7
  3. apostle87, 7.25
  4. jlh56ks, 7.7
  5. azta, 7.71

Highest 5 BB/9:

  1. blakeford77, 4.3
  2. Ben Cerutti, 4.0
  3. Chessed, 4.0
  4. dronemc, 4.0
  5. wizardofoz1982, 3.7

Lowest 5 BB/9:

  1. Cardsfan7575, 2.0
  2. dr. howl, 2.1
  3. jlh56ks, 2.2
  4. PhillyRedbird, 2.5
  5. Hornsby74, 2.68

Highest 5 ERA:

  1. BaseballFriend317, 4.33
  2. Chessed, 4.27
  3. vances law, 4.10
  4. StanTheManFan, 4.01
  5. zoomzoomj88, 3.94

Lowest 5 ERA:

  1. mattr262, 2.50
  2. jlh56ks, 2.9
  3. ldr, 2.80
  4. ShannonIsn'tSober, 2.93
  5. dr. howl, 2.99

Highest 5 FIP:

  1. BaseballFriend317, 4.67
  2. Chessed, 4.20
  3. janascii, 3.85
  4. Jacksonian, 3.78
  5. StanTheManFan, 3.77

Lowest 5 FIP:

  1. CrimsonStorm94, 2.75
  2. dr. howl, 2.87
  3. giveml, 2.89
  4. Joe Schwarz, 2.95
  5. cards675, 2.95

Highest 5 Pitching "Wins":

  1. jlh56ks, 20
  2. dr. howl, 16
  3. ShannonIsn'tSober, 16
  4. The Glove, 15
  5. CrimsonStorm94, 13
  6. giveml, 13
  7. ISawVishnuInGibby'sRightArm, 13
  8. lightbulb, 13
  9. Cardsfan7575, 13
  10. jppv86, 13

Lowest 5 Pitching "Wins":

  1. dronemc, 4
  2. mattr262, 5
  3. The Continental, 7
  4. azta, 7
  5. Ben Cerutti, 8
  6. StanTheManFan, 8

Highest 5 Pitching "Losses":

  1. mister_manager, 10
  2. Cardsfan7575, 10
  3. VanHickelstein, 9
  4. BaseballFriend317, 9
  5. DisplacedCardsFan, 9
  6. janascii, 9
  7. Chessed, 9

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